Actually, the line set for a game has very little to do with the realities surrounding that game. The house sets the line to maximize betting action on the game. That's all the house really cares about.
You may have a different metodology, for your purposes, that more accurately reflects the state of the game.
For conversational purposes here, why don't you share with us what you think is a good spread for the game?
And as for that Colts' "fan", all I can say is, boy, is Vegas going to have fun with you guys, should you play us!!!!