Do the numbers lie? / Not missing the 2 WRs!!

[Gumby]

Based on all the whining and yammering I read here about how we cut our own throats not willing to overpay for the 2 prima donna wrs "who shall not be named here"...... I thought well what do the numbers say?

Do the other top tier AFC/NFC teams hit their WRs more than Patriots?

From this weekend action:

TEAM: WR rec (# wrs) / TE rec / RB rec / Total Yds / Avg per rec

INDY: 10 (2) / 1 / 3 / 219 / 6.7
CINCY: 15 (3) / 0 / 3 / 193 / 7.9
DEN: 11 (3) / 1 / 3 / 256 / 8.5
PITT: 9 (4) / 3 / 6 / 208 / 5.0

SEA: 18 (4) / 3 / 3 / 227 / 6.9
PHIL: 8 (3) / 4 / 6 / 296 / 9.0

NE: 13 (3) / 7 / 11 / 320 / 5.8

So Patriots hit 3 WRs pretty much average of every top team; same as all but 3. The "top passer" (paymeaton) in the league only threw to 2 WRs all game.

WR Recs is right in the middle number wise at 13; but 3 out of 7 rank ordering. - 50% more than the smallest and about 30% less than the most.

There is NO other team with as many TE receptions nor RB receptions. That is vintage Tom Brady - spread the ball around.

The one issue that jumps out of the page is our low YPC (probably due to the high # of RB catches - usually screens etc) and the exceptionally high YPC that Denver had bettered only by a Philly team beating up on a weak sister San Fran.

So in my short analysis is that I don't see a long term issue with WRs based on the numbers.
I do see a problem from the numbers with a Defense that gives up way too many big plays.

If you want to argue based on visual evidence that they lack style points or aren't consistent in play-calling fine. But # wise the wideouts we have even with Chad on the bench are doing fine. The team just needs to execute consistently like they did in the one scoring drive.

 

[borg]

Add this number...Tom Brady passing at a 53% completion rate. Also, Pitt and NE, the two lowest yards /catch on your list have something in common...Receivers that have left their teams...Burris (Last year)and Randal El vs Givens and Branch and Dwight. The correlation exists, no doubt,.

 

[aabtec]

Based on all the whining and yammering I read here about how we cut our own throats not willing to overpay for the 2 prima donna wrs "who shall not be named here"...... I thought well what do the numbers say?

Do the other top tier AFC/NFC teams hit their WRs more than Patriots?

From this weekend action:

TEAM: WR rec (# wrs) / TE rec / RB rec / Total Yds / Avg per rec

INDY: 10 (2) / 1 / 3 / 219 / 6.7
CINCY: 15 (3) / 0 / 3 / 193 / 7.9
DEN: 11 (3) / 1 / 3 / 256 / 8.5
PITT: 9 (4) / 3 / 6 / 208 / 5.0

SEA: 18 (4) / 3 / 3 / 227 / 6.9
PHIL: 8 (3) / 4 / 6 / 296 / 9.0

NE: 13 (3) / 7 / 11 / 320 / 5.8

So Patriots hit 3 WRs pretty much average of every top team; same as all but 3. The "top passer" (paymeaton) in the league only threw to 2 WRs all game.

WR Recs is right in the middle number wise at 13; but 3 out of 7 rank ordering. - 50% more than the smallest and about 30% less than the most.

There is NO other team with as many TE receptions nor RB receptions. That is vintage Tom Brady - spread the ball around.

The one issue that jumps out of the page is our low YPC (probably due to the high # of RB catches - usually screens etc) and the exceptionally high YPC that Denver had bettered only by a Philly team beating up on a weak sister San Fran.

So in my short analysis is that I don't see a long term issue with WRs based on the numbers.
I do see a problem from the numbers with a Defense that gives up way too many big plays.

If you want to argue based on visual evidence that they lack style points or aren't consistent in play-calling fine. But # wise the wideouts we have even with Chad on the bench are doing fine. The team just needs to execute consistently like they did in the one scoring drive.

Please enough with the stupid stats..this isn't the red sox with all of their stats...

The passing game stinks. The numbers are useless. This team has a huge problem on offense. Its called lack of wr's...

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Bye week seven, we'll be past the bye, the new guys will have had time. Hopefully we'll be 3-2 and things should look a lot better. If not, there's an issue - but I think everything will be fine by then.

 

[onegameatatime]

In football, trust your eyes, not the numbers (baseball is the reverse).

A lot of those completions were Q4 underneath stuff when down 17-0 and Denver was willing to concede shorter passes. Does anyone really want to compare Johnson and Houshm... to anything the Pats have? Or Harrison and Wayne? or Hines Ward?

Gotta love Troy Brown for sticking with it and still looking pretty good.

Despite all this, I think the biggest concern should be Brady. We have been spoiled into thinking Brady will find a way no matter what he has to work with, because so often he has. Whether it's mental or physical, Brady looks out of sync. Until he looks better and makes fewer bad passes, we can expert more of what we saw last night.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I'm glad to see the individual numbers up and the receivers - especially Caldwell and Gabriel - making most of the catches thrown to them

But in this case, I think the numbers do lie

Look at the running game last night - 50 yards on 21 carries - this was NOT Patriots football.

With 55 passing attempts you're going to see some good stats for the receivers - if you don't you have a HUGE problem

Denver stopped the run and forced Brady to the air and seemed to adopt a bend but not break attitude

... and it worked.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

In football, trust your eyes, not the numbers (baseball is the reverse).

A lot of those completions were Q4 underneath stuff when down 17-0 and Denver was willing to concede shorter passes.

First, baseball isn't the reverse, but moving on from that.

You could just as well be talking about last year's Denver regular season game. Same thing. I do trust my eyes. Caldwell looks like a very good #3 WR, as does Troy. Gabriel looked like a solid #2. For whatever reason he didn't play a lot early. And, yeah, Chad Jackson looked pretty darn good last week. Give it time, my eyes say Jackson, Gabriel, Caldwell, Brown will be fine.

 

[sieglo]

Yeah, these numbers were earned in garbage time. They're worthless.

I still have hope that our WRs will show up. Gabriel has been with the team for two weeks. Chad Jackson has been practicing for about the same length of time due to his injury. (Base don what we've seen, Caldwell can probably make a pretty decent #3 guy with Brown.) Once Brady adjusts to Jackson and Gabriel, we may be okay. Brady needs to figure out how to throw the ball to these guys differently than Branch/Givens because they may get less separation but have more breakaway speed and better size for going up and winning possession of a ball.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Yeah, these numbers were earned in garbage time. They're worthless.

That catch by Gabriel in the end zone was a very good catch whenever it was. It wasn't worthless, it showed he can play.

 

[onegameatatime]

First, baseball isn't the reverse, but moving on from that.

You could just as well be talking about last year's Denver regular season game. Same thing. I do trust my eyes. Caldwell looks like a very good #3 WR, as does Troy. Gabriel looked like a solid #2. For whatever reason he didn't play a lot early. And, yeah, Chad Jackson looked pretty darn good last week. Give it time, my eyes say Jackson, Gabriel, Caldwell, Brown will be fine.

I'm still hopeful as you are, but I an not convinced by the numbers cited to open the thread that supposedly show we are fine.

(And I do believe that in baseball, you can watch a number of games and still do not get a sense of a player -- the numbers over time tell the story. The tradeoff of yardage for time and the fact that football is much more about team pieces is the huge difference in determining value in football versus baseball.)

 

[PF1996]

I'm really sick of the WRs being blamed for the Patriots offensive problems when it's quite obvious that BRADY, the Oline and the offensive playing calling is at fault. Everyone acts like Branch and Givens were these great WRs who always got separation from DBs on their own merits. That was so not the case in every Pats game I've seen. The Patriots offensive SCHEMES and playcalling, and Brady's skill, were the reasons that Givens and Branch got open on most plays. Neither has the talent to beat good DBs on their own (one reason Brady had problems with teams with good DBs like Miami) as amply demonstrated by Branch against the Giants. Both Branch and Givens played well against ZONE coverages where they could find holes (per the pre-established routes) and Brady AND Weis were good at manipulating the D through the schemes they ran.

The Patriots offense also sucked against good teams last year, even though both Branch and Givens were on the team. Despite Brady's gaudy passing stats, the Patriots O, just like last night, was inconsistent and typically picked up a lot of passing yardage AFTER the game was well decided and the opposing D was playing prevent D. Watch the Denver, San Diego, K. City, Indy, Carolina games from last year - the only "tough" games the Pats played besides Pittsburgh. The Patriots O has NEVER been successful through having exceptional receivers but rather from the SCHEMES that they ran and WHEN those SCHEMES were called. So the problem with the Patriots O this year is the same as last year, POOR Offensive playcalling along with poor player execution (i.e. no Oline runblocking). The problems of last year have been compounded this year NOT by the loss of Branch/Givens but by Brady's horrendous play thus far. Brady's horrendous play cannot be blamed on the receivers because his poor stats are not due to the receivers constantly dropping balls or NOT getting open but to him overthrowing, underthrowing and generally making VERY poor decisions.

I'm not a football expert and thus generally hate to criticize coaches but the Patriots seem to be unable to PHYSICALLY play good football. Their blocking on special teams suck (although it was decent last night). There was one play where the Pats were fielding the kick and a Pats player just allowed a Broncos player to run unimpeded to the returner preventing any opportunity for a return. Why hasn't the special teams coach corrected this issue? The players, especially in the secondary, appear to be dumb, a flaw made worse by their apparent inability to make SOLID tackles. The DBs always play ten freaking yards off the receiver, even in a third and 10 situation, so the receivers have all day to get into their routes and the QB has a ton of open space in which to throw the ball. The few times the DBs do try to jam, it makes NO difference to the receivers routes. So, I have to question the coaches - why aren't these players being taught the proper techniques for jamming a receiver at the line of scrimmage, for playing closer to the line of scrimmage when it's a third and 10? When the Patriots do blitz, the extra players just literally run straight into the middle of the Oline (i.e. the heart of the protection), making it easy to block them, especially since they ALL run to the same spot, so one Pats player is essentially BLOCKING the other Pats player. It's like they believe their combined weight will bowl over the Olineman and they'll get to the QB that way. Why isn't the Dline coach teaching better blitzing technique?

The Oline either due to a strength or technique issue CANNOT DRIVE ANYONE down the field OR SUSTAIN their blocks or MOVE THE DLINE to create holes for the running back to get through. It's pathetic. Dante is always being praised as a great Oline coach but the Patriots runblocking has been poor-average for quite some time. Why hasn't this been fixed?

The Patriots have fundamentally serious problems that go beyond losing the game to Denver. It's the WAY they lost...by playing the SAME way as they had in their two previous games. It's the FUNDAMENTAL problems they have both with their players and their coaching. These are problems that have been ongoing in some cases for the last three years and they STILL haven't been fixed. You have to be really blind to think that they will be fixed this year when the CORE of the problem (i.e. coaches and players), remain the same. I don't hold out any hope for a change in coaching staff but I truly hope the roster is seriously overhauled this year. We need bigger, faster, stronger and SMARTER players, particularly on defense.