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Agreed. KC covers that line in probably 70% of hypothetical games. Hell, even in that game with Kelce down, it still took a few miraculous plays and ref luck to eek out a one point victory. If NE isn't coasting with a 20+ point lead come 11pm this Saturday, I'll be shocked.
Mariota's a mobile QB, and that tends to lead to more conservative Patriots defenses and closer scores.