Concepts some posters could benefit from learning

[RayClay]

They let go an old guy. Big difference, that's why that elusive long term contract never materialized. They did franchise him twice.

 

[makewayhomer]

Saving money by getting a kicker who's statistically better except in the clutch is like saving money by getting a bullet proof vest that almost stops a bullet.

the Patriots saved money by getting a kicker who not only didn't have Vinatieri's clutch stats, but he had no stats at all.

how is that working out?

 

[pats-blue]

it's seriously sad that me disagreeing with the CW wisdom on this board makes me a fan of another team.

Well to use your tactic in this thread. A large percentage of the posters of your ilk have been outed in the past. They use the same type of post to portray a "contrarian" view on virtually every subject. By reading your posts the VERY large percentage take this view no matter what the subject is and then you fall back on the "just because I am not a homer" arguement. Well here is a clue. Most on this board are not "homers" and in fact complain alot about how things go considering the great amount of success the Pats have had in the last several years.

You how ever take your "views" to a point no reasonable fan of a team would take. Do you not find it unusual that when you make these statements (not this thread but others) that the others teams fans that add nothing to the board but post snide comments agree with you?

Walks like a duck, quacks like a duck...it's probably a duck. The percentages are with me that you are a troll simple as that.

 

[pats-blue]

Saving money by getting a kicker who's statistically better except in the clutch is like saving money by getting a bullet proof vest that almost stops a bullet.

STOP! STOP! You are talking real world here! Don't do that! It ruins the premise of this thread. We are talking math and statistics not real world. This needs to stay in a vacumn to stay relevant and any stats or facts will be frowned upon.

Your "variance" post was classic! Don't hold your breath for an answer...

 

[makewayhomer]

You're killing me.

Just for fun, could you at least look up some statistical jargon on google since you've pwned me so?

Variance is a start, do you know what it means?

if you want the pwning to go on, read this article to describe how clutch Yaz was, then report back

http://www.geocities.com/[email protected]/CramerClutch2.htm

 

[RayClay]

the Patriots saved money by getting a kicker who not only didn't have Vinatieri's clutch stats, but he had no stats at all.

how is that working out?

It remains to be seen. Do you think the Patriot put AVs age and the relative decline in the lengths of his kickoffs on a scattergraph and compared them to historical data?

What type of statistical analysis do you think the Pats use, you're the expert. I'm sure you're avoiding using actual statistical jargon and names of actual statistical measures because you don't want to talk down to us laymen.

 

[makewayhomer]

STOP! STOP! You are talking real world here! Don't do that! It ruins the premise of this thread. We are talking math and statistics not real world. This needs to stay in a vacumn to stay relevant and any stats or facts will be frowned upon.

Your "variance" post was classic! Don't hold your breath for an answer...

you realize you are mocking a decision that BB and SP made that has worked out pretty damn well?

 

[makewayhomer]

It remains to be seen. Do you think the Patriot put AVs age and the relative decline in the lengths of his kickoffs on a scattergraph and compared them to historical data?

:

yes, I'm sure the Pats measured his short average kickoff, noticed he was getting old, and decided he wasn't worth the money.

do you really think they DIDN'T do this?

 

[RayClay]

if you want the pwning to go on, read this article to describe how clutch Yaz was, then report back

http://www.geocities.com/[email protected]/CramerClutch2.htm

I'm using batting average, a pretty accepted and understandable measure of hitting.

I haven't seen this, maybe you can explain it to me and why I should use it instead of batting average.

Thanks in advance (take your time).

As a measure of the quantity of hitting for players in 1969 and 1970, I will use the Batter Win Average (BW A), a further refinement of the BRA concept discussed in the 1974 Baseball Research Journal. The BWA and BRA depend on a fundamental empirical relationship in baseball play; the number of runs scored in league play is nearly equal to the product of league plate appearances, league slugging percentage, and league on-base average, provided that the on-base average takes appropriate account of reached on errors and grounded into double plays:



runsL = BFPL*SPctL*[(H + W + HB + ½*SB - CS + ½*Er – 2*GDP)/(AB + W + HB)]L



(where the subscript L refers to league totals and applies to the individual items in the on-base average).

 

[RayClay]

It says the BWA is a refinement of the BRA. Apparently, this BRA isn't really well known since I get this when I google BRA and baseball.

Did you mean: BAG baseball

Baseball Bra
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[RayClay]

Top result, if you're interested
http://www.katieroseintimates.com/blog/2006/02/16/baseball-bras/

 

[pats-blue]

yes, I'm sure the Pats measured his short average kickoff, noticed he was getting old, and decided he wasn't worth the money.

do you really think they DIDN'T do this?

So if the only point you still have is that the Pats use stats in thier evaluation of players then we can agree. You seem to now be stuck on this point since you got slammed on your invalid "clutch" argument. You might want to re-read your original post where you tell us how we could "benefit" from your knowledge. All I have heard is a poster spouting off that obviously never played sports at a high level because you do not seem to grasp simple facts of the games. This tells me that you have never been there and done that....simpley put...those that know DO, those that don't teach (or preach in your case).

You have failed to answer several pertinent posts and cherry pick back to "see BB used stats!"...uhh yeah so who the F cares no one said he didn't. You claimed to prove using stats (mainly made up ones by the way) there is no such thing as "clutch" and only "variance" (which you were proven to be miss uing anyway) When proven wrong you continue to pontificate like you are right? Seriously play a serious sport once in your life then come back and have a real informed discussion, instead of the ill informed post you came up with while trying to act intellectually superior when all you did is show you have no clue about sports.

 

[makewayhomer]

I'm using batting average, a pretty accepted and understandable measure of hitting.

I haven't seen this, maybe you can explain it to me and why I should use it instead of batting average.

Thanks in advance (take your time).

Ray I've spent enough time trying to explain this to you. I've pointed to 3 different articles online which back up my point. I pointed you to the NYT article, you mocked me, I replied, and you let it go b/c you realized you were wrong.

if you don't want to understand that after years and years after research , very smart people have found only minimal evidence of "clutch" than that's your problem. and none of the people who have found "something" think it is very significant at all. it's minor.

but if you want to educate yourself, here is some more reading

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clutch_hitter
"there is little-to-no statistical evidence that shows this to be common, favoring the idea that any such impact is frequently overstated and most "clutch hits" are simply cases where success occurred at fortunate moments, and players perceived as "clutch" are simply players who have been lucky enough to get an above-average number of these hits."

Rob Neyer:
http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/neyerclutch.htm

the seminal work:
http://www.baseball1.com/bb-data/grabiner/fullclutch.html

http://www.geocities.com/[email protected]/BrooksClutch2.htm

http://www.tangotiger.net/clutch.html

the best anybody can come up to support "clutch" is statements like this

From 1999-2002, Jason Giambi and Miguel Tejada have shown to have the true talent clutch ability to add 2 runs per year. That's it. That's the effect of clutch ability.

or this

Clutch hitting ability exists, more than previous research would indicate. It's about on the order of something like baserunning ability. Sometimes baserunning can make the difference between success and failure. Sometimes a hitter like David Ortiz gets a bunch of big hits down the stretch, and it makes the difference in a pennant race. Usually, though, it's the big three that prevail: Pitch the ball, catch the ball, and most of all hit the ball.


so educate yourself on the topic. there have been hundreds of pages written on the topic attacking the problem in various ways, and none of them support your viewpoint.

 

[makewayhomer]

So if the only point you still have is that the Pats use stats in thier evaluation of players then we can agree. You seem to now be stuck on this point since you got slammed on your invalid "clutch" argument. You might want to re-read your original post where you tell us how we could "benefit" from your knowledge. All I have heard is a poster spouting off that obviously never played sports at a high level because you do not seem to grasp simple facts of the games. This tells me that you have never been there and done that....simpley put...those that know DO, those that don't teach (or preach in your case).

You have failed to answer several pertinent posts and cherry pick back to "see BB used stats!"...uhh yeah so who the F cares no one said he didn't. You claimed to prove using stats (mainly made up ones by the way) there is no such thing as "clutch" and only "variance" (which you were proven to be miss uing anyway) When proven wrong you continue to pontificate like you are right? Seriously play a serious sport once in your life then come back and have a real informed discussion, instead of the ill informed post you came up with while trying to act intellectually superior when all you did is show you have no clue about sports.

I seriously have no idea what you're talking about. ask me a question you think I haven't answered, and I'll give you my thoughts

 

[RayClay]

Ray I've spent enough time trying to explain this to you. I've pointed to 3 different articles online which back up my point. I pointed you to the NYT article, you mocked me, I replied, and you let it go b/c you realized you were wrong.

if you don't want to understand that after years and years after research , very smart people have found only minimal evidence of "clutch" than that's your problem. and one of the people who have found "something" think it is very significant at all. it's minor

but if you want to educate yourself, here is some more reading

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clutch_hitter
"there is little-to-no statistical evidence that shows this to be common, favoring the idea that any such impact is frequently overstated and most "clutch hits" are simply cases where success occurred at fortunate moments, and players perceived as "clutch" are simply players who have been lucky enough to get an above-average number of these hits."

Rob Neyer:
http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/neyerclutch.htm

the seminal work:
http://www.baseball1.com/bb-data/grabiner/fullclutch.html

http://www.geocities.com/[email protected]/BrooksClutch2.htm

http://www.tangotiger.net/clutch.html

the best anybody can come up to support "clutch" is statements like this

From 1999-2002, Jason Giambi and Miguel Tejada have shown to have the true talent clutch ability to add 2 runs per year. That's it. That's the effect of clutch ability.

or this

Clutch hitting ability exists, more than previous research would indicate. It's about on the order of something like baserunning ability. Sometimes baserunning can make the difference between success and failure. Sometimes a hitter like David Ortiz gets a bunch of big hits down the stretch, and it makes the difference in a pennant race. Usually, though, it's the big three that prevail: Pitch the ball, catch the ball, and most of all hit the ball.


so educate yourself on the topic. there have been hundreds of pages written on the topic attacking the problem in various ways, and none of them support your viewpoint.

I didn't ask you to link to posts, I asked you to explain it to me. I can explain batting average, mean and I have a fairly good grip on standard deviation (variance) and normal distribution. Regression to the mean, I can explain that too.

Simply explain BWA to me, in your own words, so i can see what he's actually measuring.

Here's a link to the theory of relativity, in case you go to a physics board.....

http://www.bartleby.com/173/

 

[makewayhomer]

I didn't ask you to link to posts, I asked you to explain it to me. I can explain batting average, mean and I have a fairly good grip on standard deviation (variance) and normal distribution. Regression to the mean, I can explain that too.

Simply explain BWA to me, in your own words, so i can see what he's actually measuring.

I can't explain it any better than the author does in the article.

if you don't like BWA, then read some of the other articles I linked to

 

[RayClay]

I can't explain it any better than the author does in the article.

if you don't like BWA, then read some of the other articles I linked to

If you don't understand it, why bring it up?

 

[makewayhomer]

If you don't understand it, why bring it up?

I do understand it. I understand the explanation in the article just fine.

he's saying that given on base percentage, slugging %, plate appearances, errors, and double plays, you can predict Runs Scored. by changing out a players stats for a league average player, you can see how much value in runs is added or subtracted.

 

[pats-blue]

I seriously have no idea what you're talking about. ask me a question you think I haven't answered, and I'll give you my thoughts

I know you don't that is my point. So you think that the effect on the SNS system of a human being is the same for a kick or an at bat in the beginning of a game compared to the same occurrance in the last few seconds or last at bat witht he game on the line, let alone with a championship on the line?

That is "pressure" and it has a PROFOUND effect on the human body and motorskills. "Clutch" athletes are those that produce in that instance and sometimes are able to focus the pressure in a positive way that others are not.

Oh and nice Wiki reference...you do realize that anyone can write that right? It is not even remotely a "fact". Also humor me. You never played a higher level of sports as a starter did you?

 

[emoney_33]

You have failed to answer several pertinent posts and cherry pick back to "see BB used stats!"...uhh yeah so who the F cares no one said he didn't. You claimed to prove using stats (mainly made up ones by the way) there is no such thing as "clutch" and only "variance" (which you were proven to be miss uing anyway) When proven wrong you continue to pontificate like you are right? Seriously play a serious sport once in your life then come back and have a real informed discussion, instead of the ill informed post you came up with while trying to act intellectually superior when all you did is show you have no clue about sports.

Not for anything but he hasn't exactly been proven wrong in his clutch vs. variance argument. You cannot prove clutch exists or doesn't exist. One the one side you have the numbers, that you can't really use because of the tiny sample sizes. On the other hand you have people who believe in the human factor, however most of these people have never played and been successful at the professional level of any sport.

It's a nice debate to have and there are a lot of strong arguments and points to both sides of the debate.

The fact is the clutch argument will most likely never be proven one way or the other, so it all comes down to beliefs. Some believe pro athletes can up their game, some believe they can't reach a whole new level just because of pressure. No one can be proven right or wrong, but this thread seems to be heating up with emotions based on what people perceive to be facts.

I personally believe that there are SOME professionals who can suffer in clutch situations (i.e. choke), but I do not believe that there are professionals who have some human ability to perform BETTER in clutch situations than in other situations. Of course things like "holding" back are more possible in some ports vs. others, for example football. In sports that are more taxing on your body, I do not believe it is possible and probably not smart to play at absolute 100% energy 100% of the time. Baseball is a far different sport though and I believe players do play 100% all the time, although it's possible some do not.


I also understand as I believe I have read, some people's heart rate slows down under pressure. Which is a good argument for the clutch debate. However, we would have to study professional athlete's heart rates during regular season vs. playoffs or game on the line etc... I tend to believe that even if they posess the ability to maintain low heart rates in pressure situations, that ability is shown through all games not just certain times of games.



But alas in the end, we need to bring this thread back into respectful discussions of opinions backed by facts. The statistics cannot prove clutch to exist or to not exist, neither can the "human element" argument. We can formulate good arguments using facts on both sides, but the conclusion is never going to be fact regarding the question of does clutch exist.


While I do believe in statistical analysis, in the end I am a FANATIC first. I believe what I want to in the moment, no matter what the numbers or anyone else tells me. Hardcore statistical analysis has great usage for the upper management in sports, not too much use in watching and enjoying the game as it happens though .



Oh yea and GO PATS! Hopefully Brady shatters all statistical records and continues to wow the eyes