Changing Complexion of the 2012 Draft?

[Wilfork#75]

After watching the fantastic LSU-Alabama game, and seeing the heartbreaking loss suffered by the Crimson Tide, it got me thinking about the potential impact the next few games could have on the 2012 draft. As we have seen the past few years, the top of the draft has heavily skewed towards underclassmen, and 2012 is no exception. The quality of the 2012 draft is directly dependant on the number of underclassmen that declare or decide to stay in school. What interests me is the potential impact that the rest of the results this season could have on those who decide to stay or go.

Would it really be a surprise to see the talented Alabama underclassmen decide to return to try and win a national title? I know they won two years ago, but the core of that team was different, that was the Ingram, Jones, McClain and Cody National Title. Could we see guys like Richardson, Lester, Kirkpatrick and Hightower decide they want to win their own. The way they likely got eliminated from national title contention must be devastating, and they may not want that to be their lasting memory of playing at Alabama. Could we see them return for redemption? Richardson is the most likely to declare because RB’s have such a short shelf life, but maybe the fact that Mark Ingram was the leader of a national title team and he wasn’t could be enough reason for him to return. Do these players want to leave knowing they aren’t playing for the National Title because LSU has a better kicker?

Similarly, what if Stanford comes devastatingly close to a national title? Could we see Luck decide to play his final year to try and win. As we’ve seen with Sam Bradford, Luck could practically miss the entire year and he would almost certainly be the #1 pick. Plus when you take into consideration the lower rookie salaries, these guys wouldn’t be leaving as much money on the table. If that were to happen could we see Luck convince teammates such as Jonathan Martin and David DeCastro to stay.

What about at USC, where I believe they are finally off their Bowl suspension. Could we see Barkley return for his Senior year and try to win a National Title, Heisman or become the #1 pick in the 2013 draft. Could he convince the likes of Matt Kalil and TJ McDonald to stay and finally have a shot at a Championship? While Kalil likely can’t raise his draft stock any higher, TJ McDonald could easily cement himself a spot in the 1st round of the 2013 draft. And if Luck declares for 2012 and Barkley stays, he would have to be a big favourite to go #1 in 2013. Unless of course Landry Jones doesn’t declare, and he could challenge Barkley for the top spot. And don’t forget Robert Griffin III who could also stay at Baylor and take a shot at a Heisman and going #1. If Luck declares, I think it’s possible all 3 could stay and battle it out next season.

Another interesting school to look at is South Carolina. I think we will see Alshon Jeffery stay another year at USC, because it seems his draft stock is starting to take a fall. Lack of production this year (QB’s fault more than his own) is really starting to hurt him, and I think he will likely run slowly at the combine to push him further down the board. I think the best option for him is to return to a team with a good young QB, possibly the top RB in the nation returning from injury and a good defence. A big year could push him back up draft boards and South Carolina could have a legitimate shot at a National Title next year. I also think Devin Taylor will likely return in 2012 to help build his draft stock. Could the way they finish out the season decide whether to stay or go?

Now not all of these guys will return in 2012, in fact the vast majority will likely declare for the 2012 draft, but there are always some surprises. While there are some players that will almost certainly declare (Justin Blackmon), the next few weeks could play a big part in the decision making process. I don’t know what these kids motives are and how motivated they are to win a National Title, but 2012 looks wide open and 1 decision could set of a chain reaction which not only effects the draft but the 2012 college season. So many teams could potentially be in the running, depending on some key decisions. A leader like Hightower, Luck or Barkley could change the complexion of the draft themselves simply by their decision. I know it’s highly unlikely, and I haven’t articulated my thoughts very well, but looking at the huge dependency this draft has on underclassman, it could be a very interesting couple of weeks. The way teams like LSU, Alabama, Stanford, USC, South Carolina and Oklahoma finish could be deciding factors in these kids’ decisions.

And of course these decisions impact upon the Pats, even if they are not targets in the draft. For example, Luck, Barkley, Landry Jones and RG3 all declaring would then push quality players down further, giving them better players. But those guys declaring could also reduce the trade value of Brian Hoyer if the Pats look to move him. A strong defensive back class could be decimated if some players chose not to declare. And how will the rookie salary structure impact upon the draft from both a player and team perspective. While it is fun and interesting to look forward to the 2012 draft and try to figure out what the Pats could and should do on draft day, what I’m trying to get at is there are still so many unknowns, and that’s what makes it interesting.

 

[Off The Grid]

Great stuff, man.

Per usual.

Side note: Imagine if Luck waves AGAIN??

Has the clear...consensus...undisputed #1 Pick in the entire NATION ever deigned to put his hat in the ring TWO YEARS, RUNNING???

I would laugh my @$$ off.

Imagine if the ENTIRE "Suck For Luck" fiasco...was for NAUGHT??? :rocker:

 

[Ochmed Jones]

After watching the fantastic LSU-Alabama game, and seeing the heartbreaking loss suffered by the Crimson Tide, it got me thinking about the potential impact the next few games could have on the 2012 draft. As we have seen the past few years, the top of the draft has heavily skewed towards underclassmen, and 2012 is no exception. The quality of the 2012 draft is directly dependant on the number of underclassmen that declare or decide to stay in school. What interests me is the potential impact that the rest of the results this season could have on those who decide to stay or go.

Would it really be a surprise to see the talented Alabama underclassmen decide to return to try and win a national title? I know they won two years ago, but the core of that team was different, that was the Ingram, Jones, McClain and Cody National Title. Could we see guys like Richardson, Lester, Kirkpatrick and Hightower decide they want to win their own. The way they likely got eliminated from national title contention must be devastating, and they may not want that to be their lasting memory of playing at Alabama. Could we see them return for redemption? Richardson is the most likely to declare because RB’s have such a short shelf life, but maybe the fact that Mark Ingram was the leader of a national title team and he wasn’t could be enough reason for him to return. Do these players want to leave knowing they aren’t playing for the National Title because LSU has a better kicker?

Similarly, what if Stanford comes devastatingly close to a national title? Could we see Luck decide to play his final year to try and win. As we’ve seen with Sam Bradford, Luck could practically miss the entire year and he would almost certainly be the #1 pick. Plus when you take into consideration the lower rookie salaries, these guys wouldn’t be leaving as much money on the table. If that were to happen could we see Luck convince teammates such as Jonathan Martin and David DeCastro to stay.

What about at USC, where I believe they are finally off their Bowl suspension. Could we see Barkley return for his Senior year and try to win a National Title, Heisman or become the #1 pick in the 2013 draft. Could he convince the likes of Matt Kalil and TJ McDonald to stay and finally have a shot at a Championship? While Kalil likely can’t raise his draft stock any higher, TJ McDonald could easily cement himself a spot in the 1st round of the 2013 draft. And if Luck declares for 2012 and Barkley stays, he would have to be a big favourite to go #1 in 2013. Unless of course Landry Jones doesn’t declare, and he could challenge Barkley for the top spot. And don’t forget Robert Griffin III who could also stay at Baylor and take a shot at a Heisman and going #1. If Luck declares, I think it’s possible all 3 could stay and battle it out next season.

Another interesting school to look at is South Carolina. I think we will see Alshon Jeffery stay another year at USC, because it seems his draft stock is starting to take a fall. Lack of production this year (QB’s fault more than his own) is really starting to hurt him, and I think he will likely run slowly at the combine to push him further down the board. I think the best option for him is to return to a team with a good young QB, possibly the top RB in the nation returning from injury and a good defence. A big year could push him back up draft boards and South Carolina could have a legitimate shot at a National Title next year. I also think Devin Taylor will likely return in 2012 to help build his draft stock. Could the way they finish out the season decide whether to stay or go?

Now not all of these guys will return in 2012, in fact the vast majority will likely declare for the 2012 draft, but there are always some surprises. While there are some players that will almost certainly declare (Justin Blackmon), the next few weeks could play a big part in the decision making process. I don’t know what these kids motives are and how motivated they are to win a National Title, but 2012 looks wide open and 1 decision could set of a chain reaction which not only effects the draft but the 2012 college season. So many teams could potentially be in the running, depending on some key decisions. A leader like Hightower, Luck or Barkley could change the complexion of the draft themselves simply by their decision. I know it’s highly unlikely, and I haven’t articulated my thoughts very well, but looking at the huge dependency this draft has on underclassman, it could be a very interesting couple of weeks. The way teams like LSU, Alabama, Stanford, USC, South Carolina and Oklahoma finish could be deciding factors in these kids’ decisions.

And of course these decisions impact upon the Pats, even if they are not targets in the draft. For example, Luck, Barkley, Landry Jones and RG3 all declaring would then push quality players down further, giving them better players. But those guys declaring could also reduce the trade value of Brian Hoyer if the Pats look to move him. A strong defensive back class could be decimated if some players chose not to declare. And how will the rookie salary structure impact upon the draft from both a player and team perspective. While it is fun and interesting to look forward to the 2012 draft and try to figure out what the Pats could and should do on draft day, what I’m trying to get at is there are still so many unknowns, and that’s what makes it interesting.

Also consider that the NCAA is going to allow the schools to pay college players $2K or something like that and with the NFL rookie wage scale already in place, the leverage of the agents, who are the true criminals in all of this, is reduced a little bit.

However at the end of the day, the guarantee of a huge NFL payday will always outweigh the chance a national championship with today's players; especially since any team is one injury away from disaster.

At the end of the day I think the following on leaving school early:

1.) Always see how the NFL reviews your draft status.

2.)QB's and linemen should always play out their college careers unless they are a near lock for a top ten pick. ie:Luck.

3.) Skill players and all other non D Line defensive players should jump if they have a great junior year, because with graduation and/or coaching changes, there is no guarantee they can duplicate a great season the next year.