Carroll's decision to go for 2

[brdmaverick]

The Seahawks just scored a TD that put them up by 7 with only a few minutes left in the game. Instead of kicking the extra point to put them up by 8 (and force the Pats to go for 2 after a potential TD), the Seahawks went for the kill and went for two themselves. A successful conversion would put them up by 9 and assure a two possession lead.

What do you think? Do you think that was a good, aggressive call?

What is funny is that my brother and I were discussing this very possibility during the 1 o'clock games. I liked the idea of going for two in this scenario.

Here was my logic.....

It comes down to which scenario you have more confidence in....
Do you feel better about your offense scoring a 2 pt conversion or do you feel better about your defense stopping one?


I've given it some more thought this morning and I realize there is another element at play that goes AGAINST going for two.....situational knowledge. Had the Seahawks converted the 2 pt conversion, at that moment the Pats would have known it was a two possession game and would treat clock management appropriately.

Had they been down by 8, they would do what all teams do.....even though it's a two score game (TD + 2pt) tehy would treat it like a one possession. Their play calling/urgency would indicate an 'put all your eggs in this one drive' approach. You either get the TD and 2 pts , or you lose. So if you miss the two points, you've lost.

 

[Froob]

It was interesting, hard to pass on the buffer with that defense but the way their offense was moving I loved it.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Initially when it was called I questioned it, but your explanation makes sense. I guess even if you give up the TD, the potential harm is they go for 2 for the game winner at that point

 

[RobertWeathers]

I said last night on the GD thread it was dumb but after thinking it over after the game, I actually think Pom Pom had some good strategy there.

He was already up by 7 and knew if there was a Pats TD, BB would take the XP and take his chances in OT

By going for 2 -and making it he puts the game out of reach.

You certainly can argue that going for 2 - and making it also increases the odds of winning as the Pats would need to put the ball in the EZ twice consecutively.

Not sure there is a 100% right answer there.

Sucky outcome for us but a very entertaining game.

 

[PatriotsPimp136]

I am sure he figured they would score on our crappy defense no matter what.

 

[Kontradiction]

It's hard to fault him for it. On one hand, he had no respect for the Pats defense (and he shouldn't have) and, on the other hand, he knew what the Pats offense was capable of. Going for the kill there was a good call and all they had to risk was overtime.

 

[everlong]

I posted this in another thread but I think it was a simple probability equation that somebody like Ernie Adams worked out. Basically it's a higher expected value of winning percentage when you're up by 9 of the Patriots scoring a TD and then a FG vs the Patriots scoring a TD plus a two point conversion. I bet the new extra point length factored into this and changed the old probability numbers to make going for 2 the better play. I'd be interested to hear Bill speak to this point.

 

[chasa]

i liked the call. it was a smart move by carol and one of the things im sure we as fans would have wanted the patriots to do.

 

[TPL]

I wouldn't have been upset if the Pats went for 2 if Gronk had made the catch.

 

[Sicilian]

Without looking at the numbers, my guess would be that Tom Brady and the Patriots 2-pt conversion rate is pretty damn high. Couple that with the fact that Gost has already missed a couple extra points (and Wagner has shown the athleticism to block them), and they probably figured the difference between an 8 point lead and 7 point lead was pretty minimal. That if they couldn't stop them from going the length of the field, they probably weren't going to stop them from tying the game either way. But if they had to go down the field TWICE...

 

[doesntmatter1]

I thought it was genius. It's not like we would go for 2 ourselves and jeopardize a shot at ot if we were able to score a td.

 

[SalemPats]

i was fine with it, you're up 7 and you figure pats just tie it either way if we score a TD. Why not just put the game away right there

 

[luuked]

Seems like BB didn't agree with it..

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Great decision by Carroll. If he makes it, game over. He knows how much Gostowski has struggled, so even if they miss, Gostowski would be under intense pressure to make an extra point. Didn't work out, but that't the type of call you make playing in New England and knowing how hard it is to win there.

 

[PF_SU]

I am with Belichick on that one. If I had the Seahawks' defense I'd force the Patriots to march down the field and convert the 2pt conversion just for the tie. He got bailed out by the Patriots not managing to punch it in. If they punched it in and convert the XP (and win in OT) there would've been a lot of second-guessing of that decision to go for two.

 

[GodBrady]

It comes down to which scenario you have more confidence in....
Do you feel better about your offense scoring a 2 pt conversion or do you feel better about your defense stopping one?

Yes, this is what it boiled down to for me as well.

It's the Seahawks. They have one of the worst offensive lines in the league, and they have had a historically great defensive team for about 5 years running. The decision is easy for me. You trust your defense.

People are going to say "well, the offensive line had no problem running over the Patriots defense last night". Who cares. Their defense is lethal, their offense is not.

I like aggressive calls, but I think Carroll was wrong on this one.

 

[brdmaverick]

Yes, this is what it boiled down to for me as well.

It's the Seahawks. They have one of the worst offensive lines in the league, and they have had a historically great defensive team for about 5 years running. The decision is easy for me. You trust your defense.

People are going to say "well, the offensive line had no problem running over the Patriots defense last night". Who cares. Their defense is lethal, their offense is not.

I like aggressive calls, but I think Carroll was wrong on this one.

And the end of the game only confirmed that.

The Seahawks failed on their two point conversion.

Then their defense stuffed the Pats on a goal line stand (which you could view as them having 3 attempts at a two point conversion*)

*I don't count first down, even by his own admission Brady wasn't trying to score on the QB sneak.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Good , aggressive call imo

 

[PatsDeb]

I thought it was a mistake as an extra point put the onus on us to go for 2 IF we made a TD, thus we would have had to score twice instead of them. It gave us the golden opportunity to tie up the game, which we frittered away as it happens. But they could not have know that at the time. I thought it was smarter for them to go up by 8. It turns out we crapped the bed anyway, so it didn't matter. But suppose we had tied it up (as we should have), won the toss in OT and Brady marched down the field again & scored? It would not have looked so smart then and it's fully what I expected us to do.

 

[brdmaverick]

In the Seahawks situation I would not go for it.

If it were the Pats in that situation I would want them to go for it. As mentioned it comes down to what you have more confidence in........your offense scoring a 2 pt conversion or your defense stopping one. I think it's a no brainer for the pats.