Can We Really Read The Tea Leaves?

[mgteich]

Sometimes, we look for signs not directly associated with contract value and performance.

We see Wilfork on the sidelines and think that this means that Wilfork is here long term.

We remember the team making Wilfork wait an extra year for his first real contract, with Wilfork being really pi$$ed off.

We know that Edelman is a close friend of Brady and we think that Edelman will stay. Edelman also has the same agent as Brady.

We see Belichick being friendly with Talib, always praising him, and defending him in public, even when the rest of league disagreed.

IS ANY OF THIS IMPORTANT?

Some will say that business is business and that this is all that matters to Belichick. I will go out on a limb and say that Belichick will give an extra effort in trying to keep Talib and Edelman on the team.

 

[FCB02062]

As always, if Talib and Edelman take "team friendly" deals, they'll be here, if not, then they won't. Name one example where a Patriots free agent has been OUT OF CONTRACT and resigned when it wasn't a "team friendly" Krafty specialty?
I'm still waiting for them to sign a top line free agent going into his SECOND contract big payday - no more of these ridiculous "one year show me" contracts, because 9/10 of these guys end up getting cut, IR'd in camp, or IR'd during the season because they're all on the wrong side of 30....

 

[everlong]

I'm sure he would like to keep Talib and Edelman from a personal perspective. However Bill is very good at compartmentalizing business and personal and one won't influence the other.

If Bill look at the player as being worth (completely random and not saying this is the price for either) 4M and doesn't want to go beyond 4 years and a signing bonus of 3.5M and the player thinks they're worth 5M at 5 years with a 6M signing bonus he'll tell them to test the market. If they get their price and the player says will you match? No sorry that's beyond our budget.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

I don't think that Belichick is in the business of throwing out any smokescreens on how he feels about things (other than around draft time). He likes Vince, respects Talib, values Edelman, and none of it is a show.

But I also think that if Bill's Mom were on the payroll and not carrying her weight, his Mom would get the pink slip pretty fast.

He runs a business and is good at it. Brady liked Welker, Branch, Givens, Patton too. Bill said great things about all of them, and said great things about Milloy, Samuel, and Seymour until the day they were gone too.

He probably liked all of them, but business is business and warm and fuzzy feelings don't matter to the bottom line.

 

[mgteich]

Please spare me the statements on how much Belichick liked Milloy, Samuel, Seymour and Welker.

I don't think that Belichick is in the business of throwing out any smokescreens on how he feels about things (other than around draft time). He likes Vince, respects Talib, values Edelman, and none of it is a show.

But I also think that if Bill's Mom were on the payroll and not carrying her weight, his Mom would get the pink slip pretty fast.

He runs a business and is good at it. Brady liked Welker, Branch, Givens, Patton too. Bill said great things about all of them, and said great things about Milloy, Samuel, and Seymour until the day they were gone too.

He probably liked all of them, but business is business and warm and fuzzy feelings don't matter to the bottom line.

 

[Fencer]

The stories about Wilfork being a quasi-coach this year are persuasive evidence that the team will, looking forward, value Wilfork more highly than if they didn't view him that way.

But is it $100K/year more highly? $1 million/year?

I'm guessing the amount is small enough that it's a rounding error when compared to our other uncertainties.

 

[RayClay]

Sometimes, we look for signs not directly associated with contract value and performance.

We see Wilfork on the sidelines and think that this means that Wilfork is here long term.

We remember the team making Wilfork wait an extra year for his first real contract, with Wilfork being really pi$$ed off.

We know that Edelman is a close friend of Brady and we think that Edelman will stay. Edelman also has the same agent as Brady.

We see Belichick being friendly with Talib, always praising him, and defending him in public, even when the rest of league disagreed.

IS ANY OF THIS IMPORTANT?

Some will say that business is business and that this is all that matters to Belichick. I will go out on a limb and say that Belichick will give an extra effort in trying to keep Talib and Edelman on the team.

I think it's more important than counting the beans first, then getting players to fit.

Of course someone like Edleman might be up for a contract for more than he's worth frankly, based on one year. There are busines considerations with every contract but...

I contend if the team really wants a player and the player really wants to be here it's likely to be worked out.

Remember how Vollmer was gone for sure? Seymours first contract, they made it happen. Mayo Gronkowski Hernandez, there were unfortunate circumstances for the last two, but it was seen as locking in TEs for the future.

They don't have that many big FAs, but Talib could be a case of him actually wanting to lay here and them making it happen.

Wilfork will have to prove he can lay and I'm no contract expert but, I don't think they're limited in what type of restructure, incentivized contract they could do.

They don't value the type of player that auctions himself off every few years.

 

[mgteich]

Personally, I think that is likely that Talib and Edelman will be back. My gut says that about Wendell also.

I think it's more important than counting the beans first, then getting players to fit.

Of course someone like Edleman might be up for a contract for more than he's worth frankly, based on one year. There are busines considerations with every contract but...

I contend if the team really wants a player and the player really wants to be here it's likely to be worked out.

Remember how Vollmer was gone for sure? Seymours first contract, they made it happen. Mayo Gronkowski Hernandez, there were unfortunate circumstances for the last two, but it was seen as locking in TEs for the future.

They don't have that many big FAs, but Talib could be a case of him actually wanting to lay here and them making it happen.

Wilfork will have to prove he can lay and I'm no contract expert but, I don't think they're limited in what type of restructure, incentivized contract they could do.

They don't value the type of player that auctions himself off every few years.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

BB will do what he thinks is best for the team.

If only we knew what that really meant in terms of what he values a player. We do know once they put an offer out there, they really won't stray too far from it (ala Wes Welker).

As for predicting what he'll do? I just sit along and wait for news to hit.

 

[RayClay]

Personally, I think that is likely that Talib and Edelman will be back. My gut says that about Wendell also.

I think Talib is back, Edelman if he wants to (might give up some money). I really think Wendell might be cut, or stay long enough to pass on the job. He plays one position and not strong enough at that. They have to strengthen the interior line IMO.

 

[mgteich]

Wendell is a free agent. There is no need to cut him. If he isn't re-signed, he will start for someone else.

I think Talib is back, Edelman if he wants to (might give up some money). I really think Wendell might be cut, or stay long enough to pass on the job. He plays one position and not strong enough at that. They have to strengthen the interior line IMO.