OT a #4 has GOT to be a non-starter just on principle. Much like the QB situation, there isn't anyone available worthy of the pick. So while you might pick a QB even though the value isn't there, given how hard it is to pick QB's and how important the position is, it is LIKELY that there will be one or two QB's picked in the first 4 picks this year. You cannot do that with an OT, especially when you need a LT and the player you are looking at isn't physically ideal for the position.
I don't have a problem with Campbell or any of the other top names, or taking an OT first, just not at #4. If Hunter, Carter, or Graham are there you have to go with them. If OT is your presumptive need, then you HAVE to trade down.
I'm reading that while this is not a very deep draft at the "blue chip" level, it IS deep at the next level. There will be a lot of NFL starters taken on the 2nd day and it wouldn't hurt to have another shot at one.
I did alot of the same reading you did and had the same opinions until i actually put in the film amd watched for myself.
Will Campbell is going to be an excellent lineman, he has ELITE movement skills at 6'6 320 with outstanding torque and understanding of leverage. Also extremely smart with an instinct for twists and stunts. He is more of a pass protector then a run blocker and IMO is very good at making a guy use multiple moves to get by him and even if they do is able to get back in front of them again. Basically you are getting a guy that never gets flat out beat and would provide a minimum of 3 seconds of protection every play.
The downside for me is the short wingspan (dont care about arm length) does show up on film, guys get hands on him all the time and he gets moved from his spot. The speed and movement skills i mentioned make up for it though as his recovery is excellent but he is not a guy who will just flat out stonewall his guy for 5 seconds. He also lacks that nasty powerful drive blocking in the run game. I saw a technician with excellent instincts and for my own personal preference, especially if he switches to guard, i want Logan Mankins and Campbell is just not that guy. If he is in a strech zone blocking scheme where he can get out in space and be in the right place at the right time i do see the potential to be very good. I would be 100% fine with taking him top 10 and get a 2nd round pick but not at #4. Give him a shot at LT for a year, he makes the transition, fantastic, if not we try again next year and have a good young left side where right now is there even one player you are 100% sure will be a starter next year?
Membou on the other hand was everything i wanted to see on film. Multiple times i went wow! Look at the feet! This is a massive dancing bear with a nasty streak that is looking to pancake people. You want to see dominance on college film and this IS the guy that once you are in his range ends you. Not as good on stunts and twist recognition but at only 20 still has plenty of room to grow. Yes he has only played RT in college and doesnt have the pedigree and stats Campbell does but i would be 100% happy taking him at 4 and giving him a shot. Let Lowe start the first 6-8 games while Membou is the 6th lineman getting his feet wet but then see what hes got. Doesnt make it, again draft an actual left tackle next year but at least one tackle spot is solved for next year as Moses is 34.
Graham came in 30# under advertised and we just signed Williams. Between him and Barmore that position is stocked and this feels like a huge wasted pick. I was high on him before that but i just see a player that we could get 90% of in the second if we want to go that route.
To sum up, my game plan for the draft is as follows, in order of preference. If Carter is there at 4 sprint up to the podium, Hunter is there trade down for a haul, like a 3rd this year and a first next year, likely scenario both hunter and carter are gone trade down to 10ish and pick up a 2nd draft campbell, no trades are available draft Membou at 4. I would be very very pleased with any of those.
