Branch vs Graham

[dryheat44]

I wrote this in another thread, but it was less relevant to that thread, which has moved off the front page. It's more relevant to this discussion:

My thinking is that Belichick wants to run a 2 TE base offense. This requires uber-athletic tight ends. Neither Mills nor Thomas qualifies. These guys are hard to find, which is why they all go in the first round.

Graham, in particular, has proven to be invaluable in the passing game. He helps Brady not to get killed. Without Graham's chipping/doubling ability, Brady would have probably taken 25% more hits last year. It only takes one to knock him out for the season.

Now there are tight ends floating around the league, and in college, who are good blockers. Carswell's made a career in Denver, and the Vikings had a good one who's name escapes me. However, the defense knows that they don't have to cover these guys. They can't do that with Graham.

With Graham on the field, 100% of the Patriots playbook is in play. He could be there to run block, pass block, or run a route, and he excells at all three.

He'll never be a huge fantasy player, but his on-field contributions are undeniable, and it'll be very hard to replace them. Plus he'll be more affordable than Branch, which brings me to Branch...

I like Deion. He's a legit #1 who excells in this offense. But he's replaceable. Just this season, we could have gone after Owens, Walker, Lelie, Stallworth, Koren Robinson, Burleson, Driver, Randle-El, Lloyd, Bryant, Givens, Finneran, Keyshawn, and those are just the free agents and guys that were being shopped. Some of these guys have other issues, some might not be as good as Branch, some are expensive, but the point is Branch is a lot easier to replace, through free agency, trade, and the draft, in our offense than Graham. The most talented WR we've had in recent years is Terry Glenn, probably by a healthy margin. I don't think we miss him.

In fact, I'll go so far as to say that WR is the most replaceable position on our team.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I don't believe that Graham or Branch have proven that they are in the Top 10 at their respective positions.

However, Graham, is by far, the more complete player. He plays on Special Teams and in the regular offense. He has regularly been called upon to pick up the slack from the O-line. And that has affected his health and his pass-catching ability. And that should mean something when evaluating him. Obviously, it doesn't to some people.

I could easily see Graham as a 1.5-2 million a year TE. I can not see Branch as a 6-8 million a year receiver. Not in the Pats offense. And not with him having to miss pre-season to stay healthy.

Both are "injury prone" and have missed significant amounts of time over their 4 year careers.

I look at it as a supply and demand issue as well. How many #2 WRs were on the market this season? That's one of many reasons why Givens was overpaid... but even if he was overpaid, that inflates the pay scale for that position.

Also consider that #1 WRs need time to develop - they hardly ever come right out of the draft - inflating the FA costs... starting TEs often come right out of the draft

Yet all this is academic if and when you look at the Patriots needs. We will always need a #1 WR - whether its Branch or another #1 WR its going to be a lot. Maybe we save a million by taking someone other than Branch - but we know what we have with him and he knows us and our offense - is that worth $1 million?

If we are looking for a TE who can catch 15 - 25 passes and block well there's a lot more supply out there - in the draft, free agency, etc..

 

[maverick4]

re

I could easily see Graham as a 1.5-2 million a year TE. I can not see Branch as a 6-8 million a year receiver. Not in the Pats offense. And not with him having to miss pre-season to stay healthy.

Captain Obvious, everyone would love Graham for 1.5, myself included. We have been arguing whether or not to go 2-2.5+. Nobody is expecting Branch to ask for 6-8Mill. Anything around or below 5Mill sounds good to me. He is our #1 receiver among a very shaky and unknown group of receivers on our team.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I haven't under-acknowledged Graham's contributions to the team. He has helped protect the right side for years, to the detriment of his body. I am merely putting his skills and future contributions into perspective. Graham is a second-tier tight end who should be paid accordingly. I don't think he has done enough to justify a first-tier tight end salary.
.

Really folks - this is not Tony Gonzales or most of the other high paid TEs we're talking about here... (and again, keep in mind that's OLD CBA salaries)

What would you pay to retain Graham? $3 mil a year? Is he worth that? $2 million? His current $1 million?

He IS a 1st round draft pick. I'd expect his agent is looking to have him paid like a 1st round draft pick coming out of his rookie contract.

Do you think your assessment of his worth - the Patriots assessment of his worth - and his agent's assessment will be in line with the "good value" I expect everyone has in mind?

And if there is an expected disconnect between perceived and actual value - and you expect Graham to walk, or be allowed to walk - do you try to get some value in another position of need?

 

[DaBruinz]

Tone down the attitude.

I ignored your points about the O-Line, because I don't have injury concerns about the offensive line. Freak accidents happened; Light and Koppen have been durable otherwise. We also have two solid 2nd year players, and a few solid backups as well. How can you worry so much about the health of the O-Line, and at the same time completely ignore all of the injuries and games missed by Graham? Also, how can you completely dismiss Watson or our RB's ability to pass-protect as well, or Brady's ability to avoid the rush and get off passes quickly?

I haven't under-acknowledged Graham's contributions to the team. He has helped protect the right side for years, to the detriment of his body. I am merely putting his skills and future contributions into perspective. Graham is a second-tier tight end who should be paid accordingly. I don't think he has done enough to justify a first-tier tight end salary.
.

More assumptions on your part. You just can't help yourself, can you?

1) I haven't ignored anything about Graham. But you keep right on spewing that garbage.
2) Your comments about the O-line prove you didn't read my comments. The FACT of the matter is that for each of the last 6 years, the Patriots have had to use 4 OTs because of INJURY (I can name them all if you'd like me to). And stability on the O-line is significantly more important than "stability" at the TE spot.
3) Koppen's shoulder injury is serious enough that there are questions as to whether he will be able to be an effective center again. If that doesn't raise a flag for you, then there is honestly NO HOPE for you.
4) As for my "dismissing Watson and the other RBs and TEs" I have done no such thing. Maybe if you actually read the threads about Branch, you'd see that I have been pointing out those players. However, we are focusing on Graham and his abilities as a TE. And Watson is still wet behind the ears and an INJURY PRONE player to boot (There were questions about Watson's durability coming out of college). Something else you ignore.
5) You claim that you are putting Graham's attributes and contributions into perspective. I don't believe you are. I believe you are purposely downplaying him and acting like he's done jack. As for where Graham falls, I believe that he is one of the best all-around TE's in the league. He's not a WR wannabe like Gonzalez and to a lesser extent, Gates, Clark and Witten. You say that Graham is a 2nd tier TE. To me, that says you think he isn't a starter. Is that what you are saying?

 

[dryheat44]

So basically dryheat - your own pre-draft post is what I'm using to show that a TE is more replaceable than a #1 WR - and I think that's common sense even without the stats to back me up - but there there for you if you need them

The problem with that study was that it was self fulfilling. It really didn't say anything except the makeup of the NFL.

But really, it was talking about a starting tight end. Kris Mangum, Kyle Brady, Doug Jolley, Adam Bergen, Eddie Edwards, Desmond Clark, and Aaron Shea were all starting tight ends last year.

Yes, those guys can be found late. Of course, Kyle Brady was once a first rounder back when Eisenhower was president, so he actually brings down the numbers.

Who would you say the better TEs are in the league?

Gates - Undrafted. Utter fluke, may never happen again.
Heap - First Round
Shockey - First Round
Franks - First Round
Gonzalez - First Round
Graham - First Round
Watson - First Round
McMichael - Fourth Round
Witten - Third Round
Dallas Clark - First Round
Ben Troupe - First Round
Jerramy Stevens - First Round

And the ones with "Superstar potential", Kellen Winslow and Vernon Davis were both taken in the top 6 picks.

If I missed another good tight end, it wasn't intentional. So yes, tight ends can be found in any round. Upper echelon ones typically are not.

I'm not claiming that Graham should be paid like Gates and Gonzalez. I just think his role is much harder to replace on the team than Branch. I would give him 2.5 a year without much problem.

 

[maverick4]

re

My thinking is that Belichick wants to run a 2 TE base offense. This requires uber-athletic tight ends. Neither Mills nor Thomas qualifies. These guys are hard to find, which is why they all go in the first round.

I'm not too sure about the base offense anymore. Maybe we have been incorrectly expecting or assuming a 2-TE offense based on Belichick's back to back 1st round TE picks, when the entire time Belichick simply took the best player available those years because the value grouping theory didn't apply.

Our assuming a 2-TE base offense could be similar to posters speculating about a 5-DL base defense or a Maroney/Dillon backfield based on our first round picks. Interesting, but not likely...?

 

[DaBruinz]

Really folks - this is not Tony Gonzales or most of the other high paid TEs we're talking about here... (and again, keep in mind that's OLD CBA salaries)

What would you pay to retain Graham? $3 mil a year? Is he worth that? $2 million? His current $1 million?

He IS a 1st round draft pick. I'd expect his agent is looking to have him paid like a 1st round draft pick coming out of his rookie contract.

Do you think your assessment of his worth - the Patriots assessment of his worth - and his agent's assessment will be in line with the "good value" I expect everyone has in mind?

And if there is an expected disconnect between perceived and actual value - and you expect Graham to walk, or be allowed to walk - do you try to get some value in another position of need?

You can't really compare Graham to Tony Gonzalez. They both are TEs, yes, but that is where the comparison stops. Graham is a more complete player than Gonzalez in that Graham is a monster pass blocker, has good hands and runs good routes. Gonzalez is a glorified WR. In fact, Gonzalez has been the Chiefs primary receiving threat for years.

 

[maverick4]

re

You just can't help yourself, can you?

I believe you are purposely downplaying him and acting like he's done jack.

You say that Graham is a 2nd tier TE. To me, that says you think he isn't a starter. Is that what you are saying?

Yes, that's EXACTLY what I'm saying DaBruinz...I think Graham is complete garbage, and I have been taking everything you've said out of context in order to fuel my secret grudge with Daniel Graham. You are such a genius for catching on.

Seriously friend, it's frustrating to try to have a polite debate with posters like you. You can't stand different opinions, and you like to preface many sentences with 'obviously', 'actually', 'clearly', or similar words to prove you are more knowledgeable or insightful.

How about I say you win this argument so you can feel better, and I promise not to rub it in if Graham ends up not re-signing or getting traded away?

 

[JoeSixPat]

Captain Obvious, everyone would love Graham for 1.5, myself included. We have been arguing whether or not to go 2-2.5+. Nobody is expecting Branch to ask for 6-8Mill. Anything around or below 5Mill sounds good to me. He is our #1 receiver among a very shaky and unknown group of receivers on our team.

OK - so the re-sign Graham folks are thinking up to $2.5 million... the low end of a 2nd tier TE in today's new cap inflated salaries (the top ten TEs seem to START at $2.5 million at TODAY'S salaries)

So dare I say if you think he's worth a 2nd tier salary, is he a 2nd tier TE? And if he is, shouldn't he be considered replaceable by a younger TE with a lower salary but greater upside?

If he's good as everyone says he's actually worth much more than $2.5 mil - isn't he? And I'm guessing we're not going to resign him at that level.

 

[DaBruinz]

Yes, that's EXACTLY what I'm saying DaBruinz...I think Graham is complete garbage, and I have been taking everything you've said out of context in order to fuel my secret grudge with Daniel Graham. You are such a genius for catching on.

Seriously friend, it's frustrating to try to have a polite debate with posters like you. You can't stand different opinions, and you like to preface many sentences with 'obviously', 'actually', 'clearly', or similar words to prove you are more knowledgeable or insightful.

How about I say you win this argument so you can feel better, and I promise not to rub it in if Graham ends up not re-signing or getting traded away?

Its amazingly frustrating to have a conversation with posters like yourself, Maverick, who insist on making assumptions and exaggerating because they don't like others having a different opinion that is supported by facts. Its also frustrating when people pose LEGITIMATE questions to posters like yourself that have a complete bearing on the situation and you totally ignore it because it shows a glaring flaw in your argument. Its also AMAZINGLY frustrating when people who claim they want a civil debate intentionally misquote people, like you did to me.

Unfortunately for you, Maverick, I enjoy it when people have a different opinion and can support that opinion by what happens on the field and by what the coach is on record as saying.

BTW, prefacing sentences with adverbs is nothing damning. Why make it as such?

Now, go back and read my posts. Did I say that Graham is a MUST RE-SIGN? Nope. Would I re-sign him before I re-signed Branch? Probably. If he wanted to re-sign for what the Patriots felt his value is.

 

[maverick4]

Official Pats/Panthers Discussion

Its amazingly frustrating to have a conversation with posters like yourself, Maverick, who insist on making assumptions and exaggerating because they don't like others having a different opinion that is supported by facts. Its also frustrating when people pose LEGITIMATE questions to posters like yourself that have a complete bearing on the situation and you totally ignore it because it shows a glaring flaw in your argument.

Unfortunately for you, Maverick, I enjoy it when people have a different opinion and can support that opinion by what happens on the field and by what the coach is on record as saying.

BTW, prefacing sentences with adverbs is nothing damning. Why make it as such?

Now, go back and read my posts. Did I say that Graham is a MUST RE-SIGN? Nope. Would I re-sign him before I re-signed Branch? Probably. If he wanted to re-sign for what the Patriots felt his value is.

Abrasive to the end, eh DaBruinz? You might notice that I haven't been one to escalate an argument, whereas I have noticed that you have, in the past, with others.

Since you love to keep directing me to your previous (rude) postings, go back and see if my posts have been factually and rationally based, or if I have 'exagerrated' or ignored things because of 'glaring flaws' in my argument, as you have claimed.

Anyway, I'm done debating you on Daniel Graham. I've said what I wanted to say. We have different opinions and valuations, and I can respect that (can you?).

 

[dryheat44]

So dare I say if you think he's worth a 2nd tier salary, is he a 2nd tier TE? And if he is, shouldn't he be considered replaceable by a younger TE with a lower salary but greater upside?

If he's good as everyone says he's actually worth much more than $2.5 mil - isn't he?

In order, yes, I consider Graham a 2nd tier TE.

Yes, he should be considered replaceable. Aside from Brady, and maybe Seymour, who isn't? The issue is if Branch is more easily replaced.

And I don't know. Worth is a tricky word. I don't think anybody should be making 2.5 million for playing a game. Compared to what some players in the league are making, then yes. Put under constraints of a salary cap, then maybe not. I'll say this, I hope those people who would have gone as high as 4 million for Vinatieri would go at least that high for Graham.

 

[JoeSixPat]

The problem with that study was that it was self fulfilling. It really didn't say anything except the makeup of the NFL.

But really, it was talking about a starting tight end. Kris Mangum, Kyle Brady, Doug Jolley, Adam Bergen, Eddie Edwards, Desmond Clark, and Aaron Shea were all starting tight ends last year.

Yes, those guys can be found late. Of course, Kyle Brady was once a first rounder back when Eisenhower was president, so he actually brings down the numbers.

Who would you say the better TEs are in the league?

Gates - Undrafted. Utter fluke, may never happen again.
Heap - First Round
Shockey - First Round
Franks - First Round
Gonzalez - First Round
Graham - First Round
Watson - First Round
McMichael - Fourth Round
Witten - Third Round
Dallas Clark - First Round
Ben Troupe - First Round
Jerramy Stevens - First Round

And the ones with "Superstar potential", Kellen Winslow and Vernon Davis were both taken in the top 6 picks.

If I missed another good tight end, it wasn't intentional. So yes, tight ends can be found in any round. Upper echelon ones typically are not.

I'm not claiming that Graham should be paid like Gates and Gonzalez. I just think his role is much harder to replace on the team than Branch. I would give him 2.5 a year without much problem.

I guess the issue here is whether he is an upper echelon TE.

He catches 25-35 passes. Drops quite a few as well. Is a MONSTER blocker, but does that put him in the top tier?

And if $2.5 mill is what we're talking about in salary - that's clearly not top tier money.

And if he's not top tier why is he irreplaceable?

 

[JoeSixPat]

In order, yes, I consider Graham a 2nd tier TE.

Yes, he should be considered replaceable. Aside from Brady, and maybe Seymour, who isn't? The issue is if Branch is more easily replaced.

And I don't know. Worth is a tricky word. I don't think anybody should be making 2.5 million for playing a game. Compared to what some players in the league are making, then yes. Put under constraints of a salary cap, then maybe not. I'll say this, I hope those people who would have gone as high as 4 million for Vinatieri would go at least that high for Graham.

Looks like we're on the same page in how we look at Graham... I'm in the $1.5 - $2 million max category on salary, so OK we;re a million apart here

#1 WRs are much more difficult to find IMO than a blocking TE - so that does suggest to me that Branch is more irreplaceable than Graham.

Drafting a WR involves a lot of luck, and requires time to develop - so that's not an option - and supply and demand make FA #1 WR a costly proposition - so I'd do what I could to re-sign Branch as we know what we have with him

 

[JoeSixPat]

I'll say this, I hope those people who would have gone as high as 4 million for Vinatieri would go at least that high for Graham.

By the way - I think Adam V. and Graham are an apples and oranges comparison... in Adam's case you'd be paying an additional million (in what could have been another Franchise tag year at @ $3 mill) for clutch kicks a handful of times a season... that extra million for 1, 2, even 3 wins a year - possibly in the playoffs - is money well spent

Graham's value at $4 million a season - even for 1 season - is VERY dubious.

If they want to slap the transition tag on him at $2.7 mil for one season I might go along with that for Graham - but a long term contract approaching $3 mil is way too high.

Lock the guy up for 5 years at $2 mil a season and maybe we can all call that a good compromise - but I expect Grahams looking for much more than that, and think that Beoli balks past that amount

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Graham has a market worth far more than $2M per year. I'd say the Pats are good to go $3M or so top end. If he wants more, he'll play elsewhere. Our loss as we'll likely need to spend a #1 pick to get an equivalent player to retain the flexible run/pass 2 TE offensive set that BB likes to run.

It's likely that Graham is an affordable resignee while The Twig is a far pricier deal. Since Branch isn't a Seymore on the value chart, we're more likely to lose him. Again, a #1 or FA deal should yield a replacement. Lose both and the O is behind the power curve.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Let's try to put this another way. What is easier and cheaper to replace a 2nd tier WR or a 2nd tier TE?

Let us at least base this discussion on the premise that 1) Branch is not a top tier WR and 2) Graham is not a top tier TE. With that being said they are still both very good 2nd tier guys.

The argument you are making is that you'd have to give up a 1st round pick to replace Graham's production is it not? Well what happens to your argument if Thomas turns out to have a wildly successful rookie year? And we only spent a 3rd round pick on him. Another guy that could contribute to the offense is Mills and we only spent a 4th rounder on him.

If you consider the Pats depth chart this year they are probably the deepest they've been at TE in a while with two guys that are solid veterans in Graham and Watson. And two young pups in Thomas and Mills looking to challenge for playing time.

If you look at the Pats depth chart at WR it is a LOT thinner. Branch is the only proven veteran WR that can play in the #1 slot. Caldwell is a retread. Brown is on his last legs. And Jackson although promising is a rooke who might have to play big minutes... not the ideal situation. And oh yes don't forget Bam a hopeful from the practice squad. Do I want to see Bam Childress starting at the #2 position... scary.

Well there you have it. As of THIS YEAR, it is going to be much more important that Branch stay healthy and play than for Graham to do so.
As to next year it all depends on the free agent market.

But I think it's safe to say it's not too hard to find a good blocking tight end that can catch a handful of passes. And he won't need to catch many if Watson progresses as expected and Thomas shows he has something.

As for the WR situation, who is behind Branch... Not much. It depends a lot on if Jackson comes through. And even if Jackson does. If Branch leaves next year and Brown retires who have you got left? Not a whole lotta anything.

Like I said before you guys have to stop taking this personally as an attack against Graham and rather look at it from a practical standpoint.

Developing WR typically takes 3 years in the NFL. Rookie TEs can come in and contribute much sooner. We have to pin our hopes on Jackson being a quicker developer than usual. And even then bringing in any new WR they will have to pick up the system.

And btw about needing a #1 pick to get a good TE? Hogwash.
Example
A) Ben Coates - Round 5
B) Shannon Sharpe - Round 7
C) Antonio Gates - UDFA
D) Marv Cook - Round 3

And there are many more, but at least 2 of the Pats greatest tight ends were not drafted in the 1st round. And Dave Thomas might join that group of Pats tight ends. Who knows?

 

[maverick4]

re

Let's try to put this another way. What is easier and cheaper to replace a 2nd tier WR or a 2nd tier TE?

Interesting approach. It sounds a lot like the baseball term VORP, aka value over replacement player. If we assume that receiver's and TE's salaries are based on supply and demand, then salary scales suggest that WR's are more valuable and also more scarce.

 

[tailgater]

How about what BB and Pioli think?

How many picks & FA's have they brought in at TE? How many WR's? It's not even close. They want 3 good TE's on the team, not one, not 2, but three.

They'll give Graham close to 3MM/yr. Branch? Maybe 5MM. Someone said less than 5MM? Yeah, like he'd sign for less than Givens got. No way. Branch is a 1 1/2 WR. No true # 1 can be shut out be double coverage. He's too short and too fragile. He's not close to Harrison, who's got the same build but is a bit taller.

Graham is a top ten TE, and top five if you go by what the position is supposed to be. You have to be able to block. If not, you're just a big, slow WR.

Watson is not ready to replace Graham. He's not half the blocker and I haven't seen anything amazing about his hands to date. He's got the speed and strenght, but seems slow to pick up the offense. Hes also already missed more games than Graham has in his career.

Graham seems to drop the easy passes, not the hard ones. Thats a matter of concentration, not hands. Bye the by, Branch dropped some creitical passes last season. I don't remember Graham doing so.