Brady vs Top defenses and forehead catching

[everlong]

I was looking at Gronk vs other top TEs career wise and let myself segway back into this since I had meant to look it up at the time but was busier when Stephen Idiot Smith said it. I stopped after the last two years since it was ridiculous since he's had one mediocre came of the lot. I could have chosen points, yards or something else but settled on defensive passer rating since really passing defense is what it's about these are vs top ten in that category this year and last.

2015

Denver #1 DPI

280 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 99.3 rating and 24 points on the road minus JE, DA, Lewis and Gronk in the clutch.

NYJ #5 DPI

250 yards, 2 TD 0 INT, 94.3 rating and 30 points

Buff #10 DPI

466 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 105.6 rating and 40 points
277 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 72.3 rating and 20 points (No JE or Lewis and lost DA during the game)

2014

Denver #9 DPI

333 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT, 97.4 rating and 43 points

Cinn #3 DPI

292 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 110.7 rating and 43 points

Buffalo #2 DPI

361 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT, 139.6 rating and 37 points

Last game of the season in limited duty 8/16 and 80 yards.

GB #7 DPI

245 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 102 rating and 21 points

DET #9 DPI

349 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 94 rating and 34 points

Sea #5 DPI

328 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT, 101.1 rating 28 points and SB #4

In another segway assuming Manning never plays again Brady needs 114 touchdowns to catch him. He would also need 102 interceptions to catch him. An almost 1:1 ratio is insane especially given Manning has played over 60% of his games in a dome and Denver is pretty mild compared to the NE or Midwest.

Brady also needs 14475 yards to catch Manning. At a conservative 250 yards per game it would take him 58 games or roughly three and a half seasons after this year. If Brady averages 2TD/game he would need 57 more games to catch Peyton in TDs so he would break both around the same time. He's averaged a little over two per season since returning from injury in 09.

Manning also has 45 more starts but only 15 more wins. Brady can go 15-30 over the next 45 games to match him.

 

[TB_Helmet]

It would be interesting to see a scatter plot of Brady's passer rating vs the opposing defense passer rating for every game over the past three years, and then compare that to other QBs. Passer rating isn't the best stat but for a quick analysis it could work.

If his correlation is flat then it shows he is 'matchup proof'. If it actually increases against better teams, then that is sort of weird and indicates he either elevates his game against better teams, or maybe is subject to playing down to the competition.

 

[Wax Frog]

???