Biggest Threat in the AFC East?

[Uncle Rico]

Well, after reading this glowing report from NFLN, I think the rest of the division should just concede now.

Ignore all the "could" and "should," and there are plenty of reasons the AFCE should tremble:
- Sanchez seems "secure," plus he recently discovered that Eli won a Super Bowl in his fourth year. And Sanchez is in his fourth year. Whoa.
- Jets players have lost weight too! They're quicker and faster! (Was that blur on the sidelines Bart Scott?)
- As much as Sanchez has "dominated" camp (according to the NFLN home page), the Jets are running the ball a lot. "Tremendous," says an AFC East Coach whose team color is Green Beans.
- Coples, the unnamed coach asserts, has been "impressive."
- Stephen Hill is getting tips from Santonio Holmes ("See that bus over there? The QBs get thrown under that one. And that one over there, it's for the OL.")
- Safeties this year "could" be a strength and Landry "could" platoon with Eric Smith. More important, "the Jets have their fingers crossed." Whoa.
- As if that's not enough, second-year player Kyle Wilson "put in a lot of time in the film room and on the physical parts of the game." Whoa again.
- Finally, "the Jets have no choice but to be good." Yup. Worry now.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

His worst game was against Buffalo. I was talking about the Buffalo game, and made no reference to the SB or to any game against the Giants, so your tangent is unwarranted if its directed at something I said. I'm sorry for any confusion, but I personally don't think the Giants have any relevance in this conversation.

We're talking about how bad Buffalo was down the stretch. The Colts were a better team than them - I don't see how anyone can just ignore that fact. We're basing our projections on the Patriots largely on their finish, why should we ignore how awful Buffalo was for the majority of the 2011 season? Your comparison to the Giants doesn't make any sense. Let's just look at Buffalo, throw out two outliers (win against us, win against Tebow), and that's one of the worst teams in the NFL, with one of the worst defenses in the league. Now let's base their 2012 expectations on that, and not the myth that they were a threat to us at any point in the season last year.

This fan base is grossly overestimating Buffalo. The Jets remain a larger threat.

You can slice and dice a season that's buried in the record books all you want. The history of the NFL proves that it's a futile exercise, but if you find it entertaining on a sultry August day, you just go for it. I'll just end my participation in this pointless discussion by copying and pasting my original post in this thread (#17, page two):

The biggest threat to win the Division this season will be determined by:

Whether the Bills can put all the new pieces together in one year. Might Happen.

Whether the Dolphins benefit from some sort of Divine Intervention. More likely than the Sanchez scenario (see below).

Whether Sanchez proves me and others wrong and turns into a Franchise Quarterback, ignoring Tebowmania and getting support from a Sparano ground game. Not holding my breath on that one.

Whether Brady and this Pats team can go to the well one more time. Most Likely.

Injuries. Random.

Beyond that, I really have nothing else to say.

 

[BradyManny]

You can slice and dice a season that's buried in the record books all you want. The history of the NFL proves that it's a futile exercise, but if you find it entertaining on a sultry August day, you just go for it. I'll just end my participation in this pointless discussion by copying and pasting my original post in this thread (#17, page two):.

That's all fine, except there's nothing pointless or futile about it. If we can't hypothesize about how the 2012 season is going to unfold, why are we even here?

The Bills are this season's offseason AFCE paper-giant (they defeated the Jets for the title this time around). Until they prove something on the field, I'm going to continue believing that.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

That's all fine, except there's nothing pointless or futile about it. If we can't hypothesize about how the 2012 season is going to unfold, why are we even here?

The Bills are this season's offseason AFCE paper-giant (they defeated the Jets for the title this time around). Until they prove something on the field, I'm going to continue believing that.

I was clearly referring to your specific analysis of selected data of two teams' relative performance over the last eight games of the season that was, and remains, in my opinion bogus and useless, especially given a similar, but not precisely, bad performance over those same games by the ultimate Super Bowl Champions. You're not going to convince me of its worth and I'm not going to convince you of its vacuousness, so let's not waste our breath any more. I'm done.

 

[BradyManny]

I was clearly referring to your specific analysis of selected data of two teams' relative performance over the last eight games of the season that was, and remains, in my opinion bogus and useless, especially given a similar, but not precisely, bad performance over those same games by the ultimate Super Bowl Champions. You're not going to convince me of its worth and I'm not going to convince you of its vacuousness, so let's not waste our breath any more. I'm done.

No, it wasn't similar at all. Your comparison of the Giants to the Bills down the stretch was, no offense, a horrible comparison. Statistically it wasn't even close. My sample 8 games had the Bills averaging by losing by three touchdowns per game, and winless. Your sample game had the Giants 3-5 with a -3 point differential average.

And if you look at the Giants games, the clear outlier was getting smoked by the Saints. If you throw that out, they were decent down the stretch.

The Giants lost by more than one possession only twice in that stretch, the Bills had five games where they lost by more than two possessions. One team was taking the Packers to the wire. Another was getting slaughtered.

The Bills and Giants comparison does not hold up, at all, and it's a detriment to your argument you continue to insist that it does.

 

[wistahpatsfan]

What's a "threat"? I can't remember there being one in the AFC East...whatever it is.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Well, after reading this glowing report from NFLN, I think the rest of the division should just concede now.

Ignore all the "could" and "should," and there are plenty of reasons the AFCE should tremble:
- Sanchez seems "secure," plus he recently discovered that Eli won a Super Bowl in his fourth year. And Sanchez is in his fourth year. Whoa.
- Jets players have lost weight too! They're quicker and faster! (Was that blur on the sidelines Bart Scott?)
- As much as Sanchez has "dominated" camp (according to the NFLN home page), the Jets are running the ball a lot. "Tremendous," says an AFC East Coach whose team color is Green Beans.
- Coples, the unnamed coach asserts, has been "impressive."
- Stephen Hill is getting tips from Santonio Holmes ("See that bus over there? The QBs get thrown under that one. And that one over there, it's for the OL.")
- Safeties this year "could" be a strength and Landry "could" platoon with Eric Smith. More important, "the Jets have their fingers crossed." Whoa.
- As if that's not enough, second-year player Kyle Wilson "put in a lot of time in the film room and on the physical parts of the game." Whoa again.
- Finally, "the Jets have no choice but to be good." Yup. Worry now.

-No tangible reason why a team in free fall should get better.
-A bunch of cheap offseason additions with little upside but slight name recognition
-The typical draft class that every team has, with all of it's promise and untailored expectations
-A quarterback who studies another quarterback due to a random factoid, rather than studying the best quarterbacks in the game, or the ones that match his style of play. Hey, at least hope went from him being Peyton Manning to Eli Manning (and soon to be Chad Pennington, and finally, praying that he's Trent Dilfer.)

This a perfect recipe for a 5-11 season.

 

[Rexorcism]

The main issue with Buffalo in the second half was Fitzpatrick and their defense dropping off a cliff with injuries. New season and everybody is healthy. The Bills and Jets both have sound to very good defenses. The difference is on offense. The Bills are far better at every position and have none of the chaos and drama that the Jets do.

Looking at the Jets, their only path to the playoffs is to have a 2000 Ravens type year where the defense just shuts everyone down and the offense chips in 10 to 14 ppg for wins. It's possible. The Jets' defense is good at all three levels and if they get a real pass rush from their youngsters, they could be a force.

But, that Jets offense is anemic. Look at their roster. How do they score points? QB is mediocre to awful with a built in distraction, no running backs that stand out - Shonn Green is the best they have. Their receivers are what - Holmes? Big deal. Who are those other guys? Jeremy Kerley? Chaz Schillens? Seriously. TE Justin Keller is pretty good but without any fire power around him, teams will focus on taking him out as an option. I don't get it.

The Bills? Donald Jones and Stevie Johnson are excellent receivers. That kid out of UConn - Easley - should have a good year with a full camp. Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller are a terrific 1-2 punch out of the backfield and Spiller should have a breakout year - he is so fast and elusive. Chandler at TE is better than Keller. Fitzpatrick is smarter and has a better deep ball than Sanchez or Tebow. Everywhere you look, the Bills are just better on offense.

Defensively, both teams are impressive to me. I think it's a wash as far as which defense is better. The Patriots will still hang 30 on both of them and dare their offenses to keep up or control the clock. The Bills have a far better chance of hanging around and making things interesting.

The Jets D is largely better than the Bills and should also be better than the...Pats...

Last year was an outlier year for the D. There is a great article on Grantland about just that. Once the Jets D reverts to the mean this year they will be a top 5 unit. Buffalo's D should be better with that D line but I still see them in the bottom half of the league.

Buffalo's O is a good unit but for all the hate Sanchez gets its amazing Fitpatrick gets a pass for a horrendous second half. Thank goodness though the Jets have Justin Keller, where would they be without him.

 

[BradyManny]

Last year was an outlier year for the D. There is a great article on Grantland about just that. Once the Jets D reverts to the mean this year they will be a top 5 unit.

An entire season can be categorized as an outlier? 16 games isn't a big enough sample size?

That said, there is something to Grantland's point about the Jets per-possession defensive efficiency. I'm big into per-possession. But I'm also big into the MJ GIF, so I am jumping on Barnwell's ridiculous use of the word outlier in this context.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

The Jets D is largely better than the Bills and should also be better than the...Pats...

Last year was an outlier year for the D. There is a great article on Grantland about just that. Once the Jets D reverts to the mean this year they will be a top 5 unit. Buffalo's D should be better with that D line but I still see them in the bottom half of the league.

Buffalo's O is a good unit but for all the hate Sanchez gets its amazing Fitpatrick gets a pass for a horrendous second half. Thank goodness though the Jets have Justin Keller, where would they be without him.

"Come on, man!"

We're all homers to some degree. I understand that. No prob. And, you're a relatively polite and knowledgeable poster for a Jets fan.

But, you can't say that a whole darn season is "an outlier." It's hard to take anything else you say seriously when you make a comment like that.

A couple of bad games, like any team can have, can constitute an "outlier." But, 8--8 is a "pattern."

 

[Rexorcism]

"Come on, man!"

We're all homers to some degree. I understand that. No prob. And, you're a relatively polite and knowledgeable poster for a Jets fan.

But, you can't say that a whole darn season is "an outlier." It's hard to take anything else you say seriously when you make a comment like that.

A couple of bad games, like any team can have, can constitute an "outlier." But, 8--8 is a "pattern."

Thank you, I guess.

For the record I didn't say it was an outlier, Bill Barnwell of Grantland did.

Heres the article.

The Jets had it tough in 2011. Was that an anomaly or a trend? - Grantland

From what I have read of him in the past year Barnwell seems like a knowledgable guy, bit of a stat-head but his article does seem to have the evidence to back it.

 

[Deus Irae]

Thank you, I guess.

For the record I didn't say it was an outlier, Bill Barnwell of Grantland did.

Heres the article.

The Jets had it tough in 2011. Was that an anomaly or a trend? - Grantland

From what I have read of him in the past year Barnwell seems like a knowledgable guy, bit of a stat-head but his article does seem to have the evidence to back it.

The problem with the "outlier" argument is that teams don't remain the same from year to year. It's not an outlier that the Jets couldn't get pressure without blitzing, had weak LB play and had crappy safeties.

 

[Rexorcism]

The problem with the "outlier" argument is that teams don't remain the same from year to year. It's not an outlier that the Jets couldn't get pressure without blitzing, had weak LB play and had crappy safeties.

Here's where Barnwell uses "outlier".

"Year PA Rank DVOA Rank
2009 1 1
2010 6 5
2011 20 2

Quick: Spot the outlier! Despite the dramatic rise in their points allowed — and with it, a decline in their record — the advanced statistics suggest that the Jets were actually every bit as good as they used to be. How on earth can that be true? And which of the two actually matters in predicting how the Jets will do in 2012?"

 

[Deus Irae]

Here's where Barnwell uses "outlier".

"Year PA Rank DVOA Rank
2009 1 1
2010 6 5
2011 20 2

Quick: Spot the outlier! Despite the dramatic rise in their points allowed — and with it, a decline in their record — the advanced statistics suggest that the Jets were actually every bit as good as they used to be. How on earth can that be true? And which of the two actually matters in predicting how the Jets will do in 2012?"

I know what Barnwell was doing. I understand what he's saying. I see some validity in the claims that the defense dealt with abnormally bad breaks/percentages. Again, the problem with his argument is that it doesn't take personnel into account.

 

[BradyManny]

Here's where Barnwell uses "outlier".

"Year PA Rank DVOA Rank
2009 1 1
2010 6 5
2011 20 2

Quick: Spot the outlier! Despite the dramatic rise in their points allowed — and with it, a decline in their record — the advanced statistics suggest that the Jets were actually every bit as good as they used to be. How on earth can that be true? And which of the two actually matters in predicting how the Jets will do in 2012?"

Deus is right. You cannot use the term "outlier" to describe a season worth of team defense. Personnel changes. Players age, performance changes (and not randomly). There's too many variables to use outlier, which suggests an anomaly.

Poor phrasing by Barnwell.

The larger point - that the Jets D performed better on a per-possession basis, has more merit. The problem for you Jets fans is that there's no sign that their offense will improve, so there's no reason to believe that the Jets defense is spending any less time on the field.

 

[Rexorcism]

Deus is right. You cannot use the term "outlier" to describe a season worth of team defense. Personnel changes. Players age, performance changes (and not randomly). There's too many variables to use outlier, which suggests an anomaly.

Poor phrasing by Barnwell.

The larger point - that the Jets D performed better on a per-possession basis, has more merit. The problem for you Jets fans is that there's no sign that their offense will improve, so there's no reason to believe that the Jets defense is spending any less time on the field.

I have no problem with your assesment. The O is still a big issue and while there are some young players who can make big contributions this year its all just talk until the games start.

Hopefully though the Offense and special teams limits the insane amount of costly turnovers deep in their own territory.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Thank you, I guess.

For the record I didn't say it was an outlier, Bill Barnwell of Grantland did.

Heres the article.

The Jets had it tough in 2011. Was that an anomaly or a trend? - Grantland

From what I have read of him in the past year Barnwell seems like a knowledgable guy, bit of a stat-head but his article does seem to have the evidence to back it.

That "unbelievable" 2009 Jets defense coughed up many 4th quarter leads in 2009.

Later performances show this was problem was hardly an outlier.

It's not a problem if you don't mind getting Tebowed.

 

[LetsGoBuffalo]

I'd love to say it's the Bills, but I can't just yet. New York kicked our ass in our own building last year when the Bills were 5-2 and riding high. That was a key game for both teams, Jets were 4-3 at the time and a Bills win would have put them at 6-2 and the Jets 4-4. Instead it went the other way and subsequently the Bills didn't have the depth to deal with the rigors of an NFL season.

Until the Bills prove they can beat the Jets, they have no business being discussed as a threat to win the AFCE.

 

[goheels22002]

I'd love to say it's the Bills, but I can't just yet. New York kicked our ass in our own building last year when the Bills were 5-2 and riding high. That was a key game for both teams, Jets were 4-3 at the time and a Bills win would have put them at 6-2 and the Jets 4-4. Instead it went the other way and subsequently the Bills didn't have the depth to deal with the rigors of an NFL season.

Until the Bills prove they can beat the Jets, they have no business being discussed as a threat to win the AFCE.

This is your year. The Jets are pathetic on offense. If they're already conceding that their offense can't score from inside the 10 without using trick plays, they suck. I wonder how they're going to get inside the 10 in the first place.

 

[Reckedtrek]

This is your year. The Jets are pathetic on offense. If they're already conceding that their offense can't score from inside the 10 without using trick plays, they suck. I wonder how they're going to get inside the 10 in the first place.

Good point. But sometimes it's better to be lucky than to be good.

With Uncle Roger at the controls, the jests always seem to have a chance, despite the fact that they're not even the best team to call "their" stadium home, never mind the AFCE.