Big name FA like Mario Williams, Cliff Avril, etc; are they worth the money?

[Ring 6]

Wrong, Back to back years infact

1995 SF 49ers Deion Sanders
1996 Dallas Cowboys Deion Sanders

Debunked.

EDIT : Add Simeon Rice also for Bucs early decade SB win

Also, Sanders signed a 1 year 1.2 million dollar contract with SF, hardly a big money deal.
One player also doesnt 'debunk' that a team has never won a SB by signing big money FAs.

 

[DonBlackmon55]

One INT in NFCCG game more important than losing the best coach in the NFL. Steve Young league MVP 2nd most important reason other than Johnson being fired. SF made it to the NFCCG 5 of the previous 6 seasons. Please don't pretend Deion won jack for them. He was icing on the cake that is it. And, they still lose to Dallas if Jimmy Johnson is coaching them.

Who won the game NFCCG and SB ? He had 2 INTS...one in NFCCG and one in SB. Players make difference, not coaches....or do you need a reminder that it was Vinatieri kicking those FG's, not BB, and that it was Tyree/Plaxico, Manningham, E. Manning making plays not Coughlin

Keep dreaming your IF jobs. Yea, maybe Pats win SB against Packers IF Parcells doesnt announce he is leaving.


Original point was.......

Originally Posted by AndyJohnson
No team has ever won a SB because of signing big money Free Agents, ever.There is a reason for that.

Debunked 2x...Sanders as a FA signed and won with 49ers and following year with Cowboys. Simeon rice signed with Bucs and they went on to win SB.

 

[Ring 6]

Who won the game NFCCG and SB ? He had 2 INTS...one in NFCCG and one in SB. Players make difference, not coaches....or do you need a reminder that it was Vinatieri kicking those FG's, not BB, and that it was Tyree/Plaxico, Manningham, E. Manning making plays not Coughlin

Keep dreaming your IF jobs. Yea, maybe Pats win SB against Packers IF Parcells doesnt announce he is leaving.


Original point was.......

Originally Posted by AndyJohnson
No team has ever won a SB because of signing big money Free Agents, ever.There is a reason for that.



Debunked 2x...Sanders as a FA signed and won with 49ers and following year with Cowboys. Simeon rice signed with Bucs and they went on to win SB.

Sanders signed in SF for 1 year 1.2 mill. That does not qualify as a big money FA.
Do I really need to explain to you want the s at the end of Free Agents means?

One player signed does not prove a team won a SB by going out and signing Free Agents.
I did not say every team that won had no free agents.

 

[SeymourTrophies]

Williams has said that he isn't looking for the most money; he'd prefer to stay in Houston, but Houston has a fantastic D without him. JJ Watt, Brooks Reed, and Connor Barwin are collectively just as good as Mario Williams, and Houston would be wise to fix their flaws.

Yes, the interest in Peppers was a rumor, but it was a rumor maintained by everyone close to the Patriots. Even with the covert op they've got going on at Patriot Place, some stuff gets out. The stars are somewhat aligned with the normal cash cows focused elsewhere (Washington is set at OLB/DE, all other contenders too close to cap or over). We will find out if Williams wants to win or buy a small country.

When Wilfork got all of the attention against the Giants, everyone else was dared to beat their man; they didn't. One more hoss in the front 7, and this defense could become very good. The supporting cast is there.

Draft or FA, I don't care, I'm saying my Hail Mary's.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Players make difference, not coaches./QUOTE]

Quite possibly the funniest commentary I've read. So, Bill Belichick winning in NE was because of our superior personnel? Please. Ask Troy Aikman if bringing Barry Switzer changed the Cowboys for the worse. The whole world knows it did except you. Because it's about the playazzzz!! How did your boy Deion not win it prior to 94 or 95? Or after. It's about the qb not the cb when it comes to players.

 

[DW Toys]

Re: Mario Williams\Cliff Avril, etc

Drew Brees, Charles Woodson and Colvin are examples of ones that have worked but there's 10:1 more that haven't.

Good point Cousin but in the last ten years I think BB has hit slightly better on trades and FA than his drafts that have been mediocre at best. His trading down is always a unique story, but in the end the reward has not been there. At one point he has to suck it up and actually pick. Corey Dillion, Rodney Harrison and lately Wes Welker, Randy Moss and even Waters although no ring, were a huge part of Pats success. Everyone points to the Thomas signing, but if you recall, his first year and a half he was decent. The one Super Bowl he might have been our best player that day.

It hasn't worked out yet as far as Titles but is Chicago a better Defense with Peppers? Yes. Even if half serious, the Pats did investigate Peppers even knowing that was big bucks. Would a healthy Mario Williams would have made the difference in just one play in SB46? Would Peppers have helped for a play or two? Yep. It was a play here and there game. Of course but "candy and nuts" etc. You would cut the check that day up at the podium though.

At the end of the day, picking FA and Trades are better talents for BB. Drafting not so much.

Even the Giants had Rolle, Boley, Canty, Baas and McKenzie who were a big part of their Team. In fact 27% of their starting vaunted defensive Team were FAs. But remember all those "build through the Drafters" 17% is the success rate for a well performing successful choice of longterm starter or top ten in thier position worthy and not just a JAG. The percentage of hits on an upper tier FA or at least the second tier is much higher. Not always 100% but higher than 17%.

It is a good mix of roster that works best. Sometimes "one player away" is a fact!
DW Toys

 

[everlong]

Re: Mario Williams\Cliff Avril, etc

Good point Cousin but in the last ten years I think BB has hit slightly better on trades and FA than his drafts that have been mediocre at best. His trading down is always a unique story, but in the end the reward has not been there. At one point he has to suck it up and actually pick. Corey Dillion, Rodney Harrison and lately Wes Welker, Randy Moss and even Waters although no ring, were a huge part of Pats success. Everyone points to the Thomas signing, but if you recall, his first year and a half he was decent. The one Super Bowl he might have been our best player that day.

I didn't see anybody bring up Thomas who was a good signing for a year and a half until he got hurt. But you're still cherry picking. Derrick Burgess, Doug Gabriel, Albert Haynesworth and Dwayne Starks were all bad trades. Chad Brown, Monte Beisel.....there's been lots of bad FA choices as well. Nobody hits them all so I'm not bashing. My point is this fan base likes to bash the draft and look through rose colored glasses at the trades and FA signing. Yes most of the high end one's have gone well but not all. Even Dillon gave you one HOF year and won you a title so it was worth it but he was a dud after that.

 

[Why?PJ]

Re: Mario Williams\Cliff Avril, etc

I didn't see anybody bring up Thomas who was a good signing for a year and a half until he got hurt. But you're still cherry picking. Derrick Burgess, Doug Gabriel, Albert Haynesworth and Dwayne Starks were all bad trades. Chad Brown, Monte Beisel.....there's been lots of bad FA choices as well. Nobody hits them all so I'm not bashing. My point is this fan base likes to bash the draft and look through rose colored glasses at the trades and FA signing. Yes most of the high end one's have gone well but not all. Even Dillon gave you one HOF year and won you a title so it was worth it but he was a dud after that.

Dillon was never a dud. His carries went from 345 in 2004 down to 209 in 2005 down to 199 in 2006. This reflects the complete change in the Patriots philosophy. All 3 years he was a good solid back.

They way I see it the draft use to be a waste, because the players were always paid way over what they were worth. Now though the pay of the draftees is more in line with what they are worth. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Pats actually trade up. Cam Newton's contract was worth only $22 million. That is less than $6 million a year. I think this completely changes the draft, and the way the Patriots go about it. Someone is going to get Justin Blackmon for less than that.

Now FA is just as much a gamble as the draft, but the damage done on a bust is much more equal then it ever use to be. This could also change the FA market as well. It will be very interesting to see how much top FA prospects get paid, if it is more or less than last year.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Re: Mario Williams\Cliff Avril, etc

Good point Cousin but in the last ten years...

DW Toys

WTF? Is everybody on this board related?

Wicked inbreeding going on here!

 

[jmt57]

This could probably be placed in just about any current thread, but it's probably most appropriate in this one. Although the article by Michael Lombardi is specifically about the Rams and what they should do in the draft, the overlying theme is that teams should avoid falling in love with and focusing on any one player. That reasoning can be applied to free agents as well. It's probably good advice for fans too.

NFL.com news: Rams sitting pretty, but must maximize RGIII's trade value

 

[everlong]

Re: Mario Williams\Cliff Avril, etc

Dillon was never a dud. His carries went from 345 in 2004 down to 209 in 2005 down to 199 in 2006. This reflects the complete change in the Patriots philosophy. All 3 years he was a good solid back.

He was hurt, old and his production dropped along with his carries. He averaged 4.7 YPC in 2004, 3.5 in 2005 and 4.1 in 2006. You don't give somebody the contract they did after 2004 with the intent of diminishing their role. In 2006 especially with that receiving core there was not a departure to a more wide open style yet. If they could have run the ball they would have especially vs Indy in the AFCCG with the lead.

 

[SeymourTrophies]

Re: Mario Williams\Cliff Avril, etc

He was hurt, old and his production dropped along with his carries. He averaged 4.7 YPC in 2004, 3.5 in 2005 and 4.1 in 2006. You don't give somebody the contract they did after 2004 with the intent of diminishing their role. In 2006 especially with that receiving core there was not a departure to a more wide open style yet. If they could have run the ball they would have especially vs Indy in the AFCCG with the lead.

They could, and did, run the ball in 2006. Dillon was the consistent, clutch piece, and Maroney was the homerun hitter. Maroney fell off the map in the playoffs and folded under pressure. That's when we started to see the side of Maroney that everyone remembers. Dillon stepped up in the playoffs (although he did fumble against the jets), particularly in the game you're saying we didn't run the ball in. Dillon had a huge 4th and short run and a TD while Maroney fumbled the ball into the endzone and keeled over in the backfield. Naturally, once you let the heat of the moment (a shootout in the conference championship) get to you, you're not running the ball a whole lot. By then, the colts D had so much momentum, and the Colts beared down on the running game so much that the Pats decided to get at that secondary.

The colts got back into that game with a 14 point swing by scoring on each side of the half and riding that momentum to a W, not because Corey Dillon wasn't good.

That is totally off-topic from the thread btw. The real question is, is anyone really willing to wait an eternity for BB to draft an impact edge rusher instead of nabbing a beast in FA?

 

[everlong]

The point is he was paid a contract as a full time pro bowl caliber back. In 2005 he was hurt and fairly bad. In 2006 he was a good complimentary back. You don't give a complimentary back big bucks

Against the Colts he went 7/48 which looks great except 35 came on one play. 6/13 sucks.

In 2004 vs the Colts in the playoffs 23/144. That's what they were paying for. So the point is high price FA's are high risk.

 

[Marqui]

The point is he was paid a contract as a full time pro bowl caliber back. In 2005 he was hurt and fairly bad. In 2006 he was a good complimentary back. You don't give a complimentary back big bucks

Against the Colts he went 7/48 which looks great except 35 came on one play. 6/13 sucks.

In 2004 vs the Colts in the playoffs 23/144. That's what they were paying for. So the point is high price FA's are high risk.

Dillon wasn't a FA so he doesn't really prove you're point.

 

[SeymourTrophies]

Also, Red Bryant will hit FA. Seattle will use the tag on Lynch.

 

[everlong]

Dillon wasn't a FA so he doesn't really prove you're point.

He came in on a one year prove it deal and was an FA who resigned so we're splitting hairs a little. If you sign Williams for one year at 8M and he lights it up and then you give him the 5/75 contract and he under performs it will be ok because he wasn't really an FA?

 

[SeymourTrophies]

I would lean more to your side if it were the year 2007. However, the cap number sky rockets two years from now. Whoever signs Williams will give a bunch guaranteed, a dumptruck full of money for a bonus, and backload the contract. Vince needs help in the trenches. A player like Mario Williams diverts the gaze a little bit.

If memory serves, Peppers' yearly cap hit isn't even that bad. The Bears maxed out the signing bonus, and the yearly amount is fairly modest. It's not anywhere near Brady's yearly number.

My god, I want Williams as much as the next guy, but I can't handle two more weeks of this.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I would lean more to your side if it were the year 2007. However, the cap number sky rockets two years from now. Whoever signs Williams will give a bunch guaranteed, a dumptruck full of money for a bonus, and backload the contract. Vince needs help in the trenches. A player like Mario Williams diverts the gaze a little bit. If memory serves, Peppers' yearly cap hit isn't even that bad. The Bears maxed out the signing bonus, and the yearly amount is fairly modest. It's not anywhere near Brady's yearly number. My god, I want Williams as much as the next guy, but I can't handle two more weeks of this.

Your memory isn't serving you that well. Peppers cap hits for the next 4 years are at least $12M, 16M, 17M and $20M pending several million in incentives. They were able to frontload $12.5M of his guaranteed money into the first year in the form of a roster bonus only because it was 2010...the uncapped year. Otherwise the cap hit of $20M up front would have been untenable - or the backend cap hits would be even worse. We don't have any more uncapped years looming for a decade. The bears didn't max out the signing bonus. In fact they minimized it. $6M. He got another signing bonus in year 2, $10M. Consequently his dead cap if he's cut in the last year or two will be $3-6M - provided they aren't forced to restructure to gain cap room in which case his dead cap will increase and make it more likely they can't cut him. The deal averages $14M in base earnings and has the potential to average $15M+ with incentives. The salaries aren't really backloaded. Only the final year salary exceeds the contract average ($17M) and not by that much.

Had we signed him to that deal there would be no need to worry about tagging or re-signing Welker or adding a top tier FA WR or even extending the TE's though, so there is that. :bricks:

 

[Marqui]

He came in on a one year prove it deal and was an FA who resigned so we're splitting hairs a little. If you sign Williams for one year at 8M and he lights it up and then you give him the 5/75 contract and he under performs it will be ok because he wasn't really an FA?

Yes, it is ok because based on that first great year there was no reason to believe Williams was going to be a failure in future years.

 

[conway]

Alternatives

What alternatives are there to Williams in free agency (ignoring the draft for now)? Wimbley if he's cut. Carter if he's healthy (who I'd be fine with). What other 3-4 OLB/4-3 DEs are available? Looking at the Pats depth chart, that may be the biggest need right now. Personally, I've gone back and forth about whether signing Williams to a deal like Peppers' would be a good idea. Assuming it's not, am I forgetting any decent alternatives?