Bedard jumps the Shark

2020 Patriots Season:
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Pick Results: NE: 90.1% at LAC: 9.9%

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Dec 6th

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BelichickFan

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Talking about overpaying in the Keene trade (which we did):

Bedard said:
That’s only the value of the trade. The Patriots selected Keene with the 101st pick, which has a value of 5.2. So the cost of the pick (5.2) and the cost of trade (8.2) means that the Keene pick actually had a value of 13.4 to the Patriots. That would be the same value as the 28th overall pick. That’s a little bit hyperbole, but you get the point.

Somehow he's claiming two #4s + a future #6 = the 28th pick of the draft.

This is so messed up. It's like buying a $30K car, saying it cost $40K because of interest on the loan so the total cost was $70K.

WTF. That is how you tur two #4s and a future #6 into 1.28.
 

Ring 6

PatsFans.com Wall of Fame Member
Talking about overpaying in the Keene trade (which we did):



Somehow he's claiming two #4s + a future #6 = the 28th pick of the draft.

This is so messed up. It's like buying a $30K car, saying it cost $40K because of interest on the loan so the total cost was $70K.

WTF. That is how you tur two #4s and a future #6 into 1.28.
Actually it’s like saying I was going to buy a $30000 car but at the last minute changed my mind and bought a $40000 car so the value of the car is $70000.
 

Ring 6

PatsFans.com Wall of Fame Member
Wait, so when we traded down from the first, we got the equivalent of the 23rd pick and since we traded the 23rd pick, we got the value of 2 23rd picks. Thanks Greg i feel free great now.
 

borg

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2020 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
And people pay a fee to read his drivel?

Then I should get paid lots because I’m full of drivel
 

XLIX

Pro Bowl Player
Ok here’s my attempt an analogy:

Suppose someone owns $30,000 in stock. They sell the stock in exchange for $30,000 in cash. They take that $30,000 in cash and buy a car.

Bedard’s logic is that the car cost $60,000 since you spent $30,000 in stock plus $30,000 in cash for the car. Which, of course, is ridiculous.
 

Ras-IR Dowling

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
Point system of the trade is yet to be determined due to the unknown of where the jets finish record wise this year.

Going off of the value chart the worst overpay we could make is if NY finishes dead last this year (-12pts). If they finish the same as last year it’s around -8. An overpay yes but we’re not talking an absolute fleecing value wise.

2020 NFL Trade Value Chart
 

PittPatriot

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Ok here’s my attempt an analogy:

Suppose someone owns $30,000 in stock. They sell the stock in exchange for $30,000 in cash. They take that $30,000 in cash and buy a car.

Bedard’s logic is that the car cost $60,000 since you spent $30,000 in stock plus $30,000 in cash for the car. Which, of course, is ridiculous.

I just think you paid $50k for a car with a price tag of $30k...but you think it's the only car that get get you to that $80k/yr job.
 

Kasmir

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
Not sure what Bedard is talking about. Here's what I get from the chart I've used to analyze all 2020 Pats trades:

Pats' Pick #101: 96pts
Jets' Pick #125: 47pts
Jets' Pick#129: 43pts

47+43=90 which is less than 96

So the Pats threw in next year's 6th round pick to approximate the missing 6pts.

The Pats could have packed their last 6th rounder this year, #213 worth 5pts plus their only 7th rounder #230 worth 1 pt to get to 6pts, but they clearly wanted to save #213 because they bundled it later with #212 to get #182 from the colts, which they used to get Owenu.

So instead the Jets and Pats agreed that next year's Pats 6th round pick had a present value of 6pts.

This year's 6th round picks range from 18.2pts down to 4.6pts, and no one knows where the Pats will be picking next year. But a pick next year is worth less than the same pick this year. The Pats and Jets agreed that the present value of the Pats 2021 6th rounder is 6pts.

All seems perfectly reasonable for both sides.

I used the following chart, which accurately accounts for every 2020 trade the Pats made:
2020 NFL Trade Value Chart

The problem may be that Bedard used this chart attributed to Pats Pulpit writer Rich Hill, which purports to better predict value than any "Jimmy Johnson" chart such as I used:
NFL Draft 2020 pick trade value chart: Creating a blueprint for draft moves by using past trades

But that's not the consensus chart teams were using this year; the one I referenced explains trades and that one doesn't.

So Bedard might be saying Rich Hill's non-consensus chart doesn't like that trade. But trades were clearly being done between teams with the Jimmy Johnson consensus chart, so it represents "market value" and Rich Hill's doesn't -- which doesn't mean it's wrong, just that it wasn't used for trades
 
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betterthanthealternative

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I started to read the article this morning and quit after the first two paragraphs. It was clearly an attempt to get some more readership by jumping on the "Pats' draft sucked" bandwagon. It is the most disappointing article ever in BSJ as far as I'm concerned. They, and he, started out with much better stuff. This article is WEEI worthy.

The bad math is just the tip of the iceberg. And to do it so poorly; was he drunk?
 

Kasmir

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
I started to read the article this morning and quit after the first two paragraphs. It was clearly an attempt to get some more readership by jumping on the "Pats' draft sucked" bandwagon. It is the most disappointing article ever in BSJ as far as I'm concerned. They, and he, started out with much better stuff. This article is WEEI worthy.

The bad math is just the tip of the iceberg. And to do it so poorly; was he drunk?

I can't find the Bedard article, but I bet it stems from this CBS piece...
2020 NFL Draft: Ranking all 29 trades, from Saints' questionable moves to affordable Round 1 deals and more

...which (ironically) scores trades by Pats Pulpit Rich Hill's system rather than a "Jimmy Johnson" system. The Jimmy Johnson charts explain all those trades, so that's what teams were using. Rich Hill's chart doesn't, so it creates news where it disagrees with the consensus.

I think the Rich Hill chart is highly suspect because it attempts to correct the Jimmy Johnson chart by feeding into it an ProFootball Reference AV scoring of recent trades. That is perilous because of the high variance in realized value of NFL draft picks, which is exactly what the Jimmy Johnson charts try to account for. NFL teams are demonstrably still using the Jimmy Johnson method. Since a consensus is extremely useful to facilitate trading, the Rich Hill chart is not yet credible for use in trading or explaining trading.
 
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jboston19

2nd Team Getting Their First Start
Really, this trade, and the other trade ups, spoke more to me about what the Pats thought of the quality of this draft. I’m not worried about a small potential overpay.
 

Hyped

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I signed up for BSJ recently post-draft so I'd have content to read following up to the 2021 draft.

Bedard's math on the Keene pick was bad....but I liked his write up this AM regarding Jedd Fisch and him (GB) being underwhelmed by the 2020 Pats draft... I liked it..a good Sunday read...
 

BelichickFan

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I signed up for BSJI liked his write up this AM regarding Jedd Fisch and him (GB) being underwhelmed by the 2020 Pats draft... I liked it..a good Sunday read...
It was awful. I don't need continually positive, Belichick can do no wrong crap but he has gone in the other direction. It was the worst article I've read in a long time.
 

TomPatriot

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Fisch liked the Dugger pick.

I dropped the BSJ subscription a month ago.
 

NashuaPats

In the Starting Line-Up
Reporters suck at math.

No wonder they could not understand the ideal gas law never mind apply it to footballs.
 
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