Bad News Everyone - [Lombardi opinion on matchup vs Eagles]

[BradyFTW!]

Preface: I like Lombardi and enjoy listening to him. I think his opinions are worth hearing out and worth giving some weight to.

That said, I'm not especially worried. I wouldn't trust his predictions much more than a coin flip.

 

[Tony2046]

Can anyone tell me what kind of defense Philly runs? Cover 2/ etc? And how Brady has performed against said defenses in the past? For instance there was an EXCELLENT article before the Jags game that showed how strong they were against 11 personnel but faired a lot worse vs teams that ran other groupings like the 49ers. Usually these articles pop up within a week of the matchup but I'd love if someone who watches a few Eagles games could let me know early.

From reading this board they run the GOAT stuffing cover everyone type defense.

 

[PatsGirl2011]

No disrespect to this Eagles team but they aren't nearly as good as the 2014 Seahawks. Honestly that team was so stacked with the LOB and Marshawn Lynch in their prime. I don't believe that any other recent Patriots team wins against them. 2014 was such a great team.
Don't even get me started on the Greatest Show on Turf.

This.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Eagles were 15th in sacks this year ... we were 7th.

All I care about is pass rush - it's the only thing that neutralizes Brady and the Eagles are not the Panthers.

The Eagles' pass rush reminds me a bit of the Pats last year: they lack one transcendant pass rusher, but they have a deep and versatile group of guys who can get the job done and they rotate frequently. Graham, Cox, Long, Barnett, and even Jernigan somewhat are all solid in the pass rush, and over the course of a game we should expect that they'll get to Brady. I still think the matchup favors the Pats, and we've neutralized better pass rushes over the years, but I think they're better at rushing the passer than their raw sack numbers indicate.

 

[Halifax_Pats_Fan]

Guys, don't worry, just another one of Bill's disciples doing the good work...

 

[Modest]

From reading this board they run the GOAT stuffing cover everyone type defense.

Which doesn't tell me anything. Even before the Jags game you had people saying both 'Pats run the kind of offense that give the Jags trouble' and others 'The Jags run the kind of defense that gives Tom trouble'. Which the hell is it? I'd love to know how favorable our matchups are against the Eagles.

 

[fightingirish595]

Sacks is probably one of the worst stats to look at to determine pass rush

 

[Bledsoehasaring]

I love lombardi. When it comes to football the guy is a genius. I listen to most of his podcast. He provides insight i cant find anywhere else. That being said this is why football is so great, he is wrong all the time. His opinions are always well thought out and rationale but thats why you play the games.

 

[50-yard-line]

The thing about football though is all it takes is a few possessions and suddenly it's a rout. It's not basketball, where giving up three scores without answer at the opening tip-off hardly matters to the final outcome. If you're down 17 or 21 early on, the likelihood is you're not coming back, and all that takes is a few big plays or a few random fumbles or a couple penalties or whatever.

There's always a few points in a game you can point to and say well if this doesn't happen... what if they don't throw a pick six on their second drive? What if they score instead? Suddenly it's a 10-0 or 14-0 game for the Vikings and the rout' son the other way, and playing with the lead is much different with a bad quarterback than trying to come back.

What if there's no strip sack and the Vikings at the very least kick a field goal? 14-10 is a different game than 14-7. The Alshon Jeffrey touchdown was on 3rd and 10. What if they don't give that up and get the ball back with 1:30 left in the half down just one score?

All these events went the Eagles' way. But none of them had to, just like last week the Vikings only won because of one of the most boneheaded defensive plays ever. It's what makes football fun but also kind of dumb.

There will be a few plays that dictate the course of the game this week. I think they're likely to go in the Patriots' favor (generally, pick the better quarterback), but they may not. We'll see.

Superb post.

 

[50-yard-line]

Sacks is probably one of the worst stats to look at to determine pass rush

Jacksonville was second in the league in QB pressures - and they only rush four.

That Jax D-line is for real. Best DL in the league, imo.

 

[goheels22002]

The Eagles defense is not better than the Jaguars in almost every category on Pro-Football-Reference. The big ones:

Opponents' Red Zone Scoring: Jax 39% - Phi 55%

Opponents' PPG: Jax 16.8 - Phi 18.4

Opponents' Yards: Jax 4578 - Phi 4904

Opponent's Completion Percentage: Jax 56.8% - Phi 60.4%

Opponents' passing ypg: Jax 169 - Phi 227

Takeaways: Jax 33 - Phi 31

2017 NFL Opposition & Defensive Statistics | Pro-Football-Reference.com

 

[50-yard-line]

Agreed on all counts. The emphasis needs to be foot on the gas from the start. If you win the toss, take the ball first. Go down & score. Put pressure on Philly. No more SB slow starts.

The Patriots are favored because of one guy: Tom Brady. But make no mistake, their D is more than capable of shutting down receivers that cannot get seperation. They'll double team Gronk. This D is better than the Jags.

Also, people keep referencing the 2014 Seahawks as the best team the Patriots have faced in the last decade plus. Agreed. Except, there's one issue: there's no Edelman and you got a concussed (likely) Gronk this time around. There's no Revis, Hightower, or even a Browner on D.

Someone mentioned Butler earlier. Is there any doubt this is his last game in a Patriots uniform? He's proven to not be a # 1 corner. Thanks for the pick, but it's time to move on.

We should just stay home, I guess.

No, Philly's D is not better than Jax's. Philly's O is better, and was world's better with Wentz this year, and that O kept other teams' O off the field and playing from behind.

Jax's D accomplished their numbers with a horrible offense.

Anytime you get to the SB, you're playing a really good team, and a hot team that had to beat two other good teams, at least, to get there. Atlanta last year was peaking at exactly the right time, playing lights out and with a ton of talent.

How could we possibly handle Julio, the best WR in the league?
How could we stop Ryan and his MVP year?
And those running backs!
And that incredibly fast D!

I'm not discounting Philly at all - watching them early in the year when Wentz was running wild, I thought they could very likely take the Lombardi. It's a testament to their organization that they survived the Wentz injury and still got to the SB.

Jones has made many better catches than the one he missed against Philly, which would have put them out of the playoffs.

Couple of points:

Philly rotates their D, so they won't get tired.
Answer: no huddle, a lot. Don't let them change up.

Philly CBs don't play press, at least when I've watched them. You need to play press against small and quick receivers. NE has a couple of those, yes?

Two teams in the SB who deserve to be there. Should be fun.

ps. Minnesota absolutely fell apart after the pick and the strip sack - they KNEW and still KNOW that there's no way for them to comeback against a good defense.

 

[50-yard-line]

The Eagles defense is not better than the Jaguars in almost every category on Pro-Football-Reference. The big ones:

Opponents' Red Zone Scoring: Jax 39% - Phi 55%

Opponents' PPG: Jax 16.8 - Phi 18.4

Opponents' Yards: Jax 4578 - Phi 4904

Opponent's Completion Percentage: Jax 56.8% - Phi 60.4%

Opponents' passing ypg: Jax 169 - Phi 227

Takeaways: Jax 33 - Phi 31

2017 NFL Opposition & Defensive Statistics | Pro-Football-Reference.com

And when you have a good offense (and Philly's was amazing for the first 10 games), it helps your D tremendously.

 

[sambam94]

the only thing that worries me is the eagles sustaining long drives keeping brady off the field....just like jax did in the first half. The eagles have a better QB, TE, and WRs than jax, so the pats defense has a tough task at hand.

 

[Chris Stevenson]

Also, Lombardi works for the Ringer, which is Simmons's site, which of course, are following every other outlets' lead, which is to bash the Pats, lie and mislead for ratings and clicks.

This is also the same guy who claimed Mallett was a "mid 1st rd talent".

He's got a good eye in general, when he's not working for a boss who tells him what to say.

He had a lot of free rein at NFL Network, but in between jobs or with some other outlets that tell him what to say, those situations are two different Mike Lombardis.

 

[Chris Stevenson]

Belichick put together a scheme that slowed down The Greatest Show on Turf. Forgive me for feeling confident he can develop a plan to slow down a Nick Foles led offense.

Or expose their LBs and overrated Safeties with out RBs out of the backfield.

Fun fact: Since Wentz went down, Philly's 3rd down D has worsened. That's not a coincidence. Outside of Minny collapsing Sunday, and a one off outlier explosion from their offense, Brady should be able to take full advantage of their 3rd down D.

Lastly, As much as Fletcher Cox and Curry are good players, they aren't better than people like Heyward and Tuitt and NE has dominated them upfront.

Should be interesting to see how BB attacks Chris Long. I mean, I would attack long on the edge and run it at him, and then just know he's going to use that same power/swim move way up past the line of scrimmage.

 

[goheels22002]

the only thing that worries me is the eagles sustaining long drives keeping brady off the field....just like jax did in the first half. The eagles have a better QB, TE, and WRs than jax, so the pats defense has a tough task at hand.

OMG. Nick Foles sucks. First of all, he's played in 3 playoff games in his career. In 2017 he had a 76.7 passer rating during the regular season throwing a grand total of 5 TDs in seven games. Pump the brakes. Foles is a backup QB. In the three games before the Vikings game, the Eagles did not score a touchdown. Foles started them all.

Based on one game at home, outdoors against the Minnesota Vikings, you're sizing up Foles for a bust in Canton. The Vikings have not won a road playoff game since 2004. They were not ready for prime time. The Patriots are a completely different story.

 

[Silver Blue&Red]

We're DOOMED!!

 

[Silver Blue&Red]

OMG. Nick Foles sucks. First of all, he's played in 3 playoff games in his career. In 2017 he had a 76.7 passer rating during the regular season throwing a grand total of 5 TDs in seven games. Pump the brakes. Foles is a backup QB. In the three games before the Vikings game, the Eagles did not score a touchdown. Foles started them all.

Based on one game at home, outdoors against the Minnesota Vikings, you're sizing up Foles for a bust in Canton. The Vikings have not won a road playoff game since 2004. They were not ready for prime time. The Patriots are a completely different story.

Not to nit pick, but I think Foles had 1 touchdown in the Raiders game.
But he still is Foles.

We got this.

 

[PatsFan2]

That monster eagles dline had 38 sacks all season, 4 less than the patriots supposed weak dline. They sacked case keenum once

Just saying.

And I am sure a Von Miller type rush is not coming from the Eagles on every occasion. The Patriots should just rotate their Third OT and Ted Karras for the interior positions that would keep our OL Fresh also.