Are We Ready For The Draft?

[The Scrizz]

Last draft was a ridiculously overrated group of pass rushers outside of Aldon Smith. Von Miller still can't play the run. Brooks Reed still doesn't really have any pass rush moves except the speed rush. Sheard isn't nearly athletic enough to play OLB, and especially not WOLB.

Most pass rushers are completely over-rated in the draft. Bunch of one trick ponies. For every Brooks Reed or Conor Barwin (ie, players we'd even be in position to draft), I'll give you a Jerry Hughes, Larry English, Maybin, Quentin Groves...

Those guys were all 'pass-rushers' coming out too. I'd rather the Pats took good players than a DE/OLB just so everybody can feel good on draft day.

(And yes, I would love nothing but defense this draft too).

 

[Deus Irae]

Last draft was a ridiculously overrated group of pass rushers outside of Aldon Smith. Von Miller still can't play the run. Brooks Reed still doesn't really have any pass rush moves except the speed rush. Sheard isn't nearly athletic enough to play OLB, and especially not WOLB.

What's ridiculous is calling Miller overrated in the general sense. It was certainly not unexpected that he'd struggle against the run, so the fact that he was tremendous against the pass and weak against the run as a rookie doesn't make him underrated. It means people pretty much nailed what he'd be.

 

[Deus Irae]

Speaking of the draft, here's a little nugget:

League source says #Patriots were at Tulane pro day to see Micah Pellerin (CB, Hampton).

Twitter / shalise manza young: RT @capeleaguer: League so ...

 

[mgteich]

Agreed.

STARTERS
I expect Welker/Lloyd to be an improvement over Welker/Branch.

BACKUPS
Our backups has 23 catches in 2012. I expect that our backups this year will do at least a bit better. As you say, we're not discussing our top 4 targets. As Belichick indicated, he may still be adding a WR.

Yep. The team has four seriously good receivers -- Welker, Gronkowski, Lloyd, and Hernandez -- plus a whole lot of backups. (Given Hernandez' versatility, Fells can even be said to backup the WR position.)

I think it's OK to have the backups be ... backups.

 

[Deus Irae]

Yep. The team has four seriously good receivers -- Welker, Gronkowski, Lloyd, and Hernandez -- plus a whole lot of backups. (Given Hernandez' versatility, Fells can even be said to backup the WR position.)

I think it's OK to have the backups be ... backups.

I just don't think that the 3rd WR on this team is really a backup, because I view WR1, WR2, WR3, TE1, TE2 and RB3 to all be the 'starting' receiver corps as matchups allow, and I think we've seen McDaniels look at things that way (save the TE2, which he'll certainly adapt to this season) in the past. That seems to be where my position diverges from the "We're all set at WR" group.

 

[mgteich]

You view is reasonable enough as a general rule for a passing team.

6 "starting" receivers seems to be a lot. Perhaps, Josh will indeed use the #3 WR much more this year, while sitting a TE (or Welker); it seems unlikely but certainly possible.

We have but a minor disagreement. I suspect that we find a contributor and an inactive backup out of the wider receivers we have (perhaps plus a draft choice and/or another free agent). After all, we have the following to find our #3 and #4 receivers (with Edleman and Slater likely having the #5 and #6 roster spots).

PICK 2
Branch, Johnson, Gonzales, Stallworth, draftee, another free agent, Underwood

BOTTOM LINE
I think that we are "all set" for now. HOWEVER, as with almost all positions, this position is open for the possibility of upgrade. Most have their draft binkies.

I just don't think that the 3rd WR on this team is really a backup, because I view WR1, WR2, WR3, TE1, TE2 and RB3 to all be the 'starting' receiver corps as matchups allow, and I think we've seen McDaniels look at things that way (save the TE2, which he'll certainly adapt to this season) in the past. That seems to be where my position diverges from the "We're all set at WR" group.

 

[MrNathanDrake]

Last year we passed on Jabaal Sheard, Brooks Reed, and Justin Houston.... multiple times.

And now a year later we still need TWO pass rushers.



Sure there are busts like Shawn Crable and Everette Brown.... That's why coaches and scouts get paid hundreds of thousands (or millions) to evaluate players.

They have much better resources than us. Personal interviews, videotape of every game the player ever played in, talking to their college coaches, etc...

Yet most forum members here with limited access to video or interviews could've drafted better OLB's than the Pats front office in the past 4 years.

 

[Sciz]

Yet most forum members here with limited access to video or interviews could've drafted better OLB's than the Pats front office in the past 4 years.

And how do you plan to see how they'd fare in the Pats' scheme?

 

[Deus Irae]

...Yet most forum members here with limited access to video or interviews could've drafted better OLB's than the Pats front office in the past 4 years.

Just to follow up on this point, and to give you a bit of credit for the notion, many here were, in fact, immediately unhappy with the Patriots recent OLB choices, and the "hindsight!" crew really doesn't have anything to stand on when it comes to OLB (not that it generally has anything to stand on anyway).

 

[MrNathanDrake]

And how do you plan to see how they'd fare in the Pats' scheme?

The same way the Browns, Texans, and Chiefs foresaw how they'd fare in their 3-4 schemes.


Face it.... BB has been TERRIBLE at evaluating college DE/OLB conversions for the Patriots.


Shawn Crable and Jermaine Cunningham. That's all that needs to be said.

 

[Avenger]

using 3 WR doesn't mean benching a TE or Welker, Hernandez can line up in the backfield or we could go empty backfield

 

[patsderoer]

Brooks Reed still doesn't really have any pass rush moves except the speed rush.

Brooks Reed was great in the playoffs. He had 2.5 sacks vs the Ravens, and he was an integral part of a phenomenal Texans pass rush which terrorized Flacco all game long. Ravens had major trouble moving the ball, they scored their TDs after big mistakes from the Texans offense (muffed punt return, and a INT from rookie QB).

 

[Sciz]

The same way the Browns, Texans, and Chiefs foresaw how they'd fare in their 3-4 schemes.


Face it.... BB has been TERRIBLE at evaluating college DE/OLB conversions for the Patriots.


Shawn Crable and Jermaine Cunningham. That's all that needs to be said.

Browns run a 4-3. Texans run a 3-4 that's basically the complete opposite of the Pats' scheme.

That's 1 out of 3. I hope for your sake that you can pick OLBs better than you can name defensive schemes.

 

[Sciz]

Brooks Reed was great in the playoffs. He had 2.5 sacks vs the Ravens, and he was an integral part of a phenomenal Texans pass rush which terrorized Flacco all game long. Ravens had major trouble moving the ball, they scored their TDs after big mistakes from the Texans offense (muffed punt return, and a INT from rookie QB).

That was actually one of his better games. At least from what I saw, he was doing stuff that would translate to what the Pats would want him to do. That was about the only game where that was the case, though. Every other time I saw him (including the majority of his sacks last season), he was just doing the "hair on fire" strategy that doesn't work at all in a Belichick defense.

 

[Deus Irae]

The same way the Browns, Texans, and Chiefs foresaw how they'd fare in their 3-4 schemes.


Face it.... BB has been TERRIBLE at evaluating college DE/OLB conversions for the Patriots.


Shawn Crable and Jermaine Cunningham. That's all that needs to be said.

.... and now I have to go the other way with your post. It's not fair to say that BB's been terrible at evaluating college DE/OLB conversions for the Patriots, because he's hardly tried drafting any, so the record there isn't sufficient to honestly come to such a conclusion. Had we more picks to look at, or insight into why he passed on some of the DE/OLB conversions who's succeeded in the NFL, we'd be in better position on this issue.

In fact, on of RayClay's peeves about BB has been how few OLB picks he's made in the draft.

 

[RayClay]

.... and now I have to go the other way with your post. It's not fair to say that BB's been terrible at evaluating college DE/OLB conversions for the Patriots, because he's hardly tried drafting any, so the record there isn't sufficient to honestly come to such a conclusion. Had we more picks to look at, or insight into why he passed on some of the DE/OLB conversions who's succeeded in the NFL, we'd be in better position on this issue.

In fact, on of RayClay's peeves about BB has been how few OLB picks he's made in the draft.

Ha ha. I was wondering who i was reading until that last bit.

More of an observation than a peeve (changes in heated argument, obviously). Observation being, high picks often bust in this area (numerous, though successes in other systems might or might not be successful in ours). Established players are expensive and may still bust Adalius, Burgess.

My observation was also in response to the myth that we just take "tweener" DEs in low rounds and make them our starting OLBs (good idea, but not our history).

My general idea was we need to "stock the pond" by drafting some higher and keep trying reasonable vets. Not so successful in the draft, but 3rds aren't sure things and seconds, though they may hurt aren't top 15 picks, especially in years where we have multiple 1st - 3rds.

Our scheme change may have helped more than anything in making Carters and Andersons viable and a Markell Carter is a great cheap roll of the dice.

Actually, since I said we don't make OLBs out of nobodies, we got Ninkovich, a fifth rounder who kicked around. I'd still try to get talent with affordable 2-3s , but not bottom picks if warranted. I'd rather go with the big DL beef with firsts, although that might not have been my position before, i can't remember. Of course, if the right guy is there...Hard to say, since we usually don't pick that high.

EDIT: That included ILBs too. Picked up Mayo and Spikes since then, busted on Tyrone McKenzie

 

[RayClay]

Also, I know we love to play who's a bust here, but put Cunningham on Ninkovich's timetable and he doesn't necessarily washout. He had more opportunity to play (I think Anderson, Carter were much better than TBC) and i sure didn't think he was a solid starter until this year.

Nevertheless, from a value standpoint, being sandwiched between Gronk and Spikes in round two would be a lot less of a miss than a 1st. That's a lot of value, along with McCourty and Hernandez. Imagine rolling the dice on a couple hyped 1st and 2nds instead of spreading the risk by trading for extra picks. Wow.

 

[mgteich]

You are correct. I forget that there are those who think that protecting Brady is not all that important. Even when we gain the 5-10 yards, Brady end up on the ground. This is not my kind of offense.

In any case, I do not like an empty backfield formation, except as a audible or trick play. Five receivers plus a receiving running back is fine with me.

I expect an empty backfield to be rare in 2012, as it was in 2011.

using 3 WR doesn't mean benching a TE or Welker, Hernandez can line up in the backfield or we could go empty backfield

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

i am skipping the draft this year...i am sick of watching the circus for 4 hours only to get to the Pats pick and have them trade the pick or draft someone total out of the box who i have never heard of. Not bashing their draft picks, but it is suck a long ass process that now spands 3 days i believe. I will just get a recap off the interney when its over.

Not me! I love the draft for not just the Patriots picks but for all the picks. The Patriots surprise moves are just icing on the cake.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

Believe as you will, no matter how inaccurate you analysis is.

This is a slow week, please list your WTF moments in the first round. If you are discussing the Belichick years, I assure you that no such player has been drafted. There have been WTF moments. I recall once when more than half the poster wanted us to draft wide receiver Terrell. There was damage to many TV sets when Belichick drafted Seymour instead. MY WTF moment was when they announced a trade-up. We were all sure it was for a LB. Instead, Belichick chose Graham. Of course, we knew Graham.

Belichick does not choose players that are on no one's draft board in the first round. We leave that approach to the Raiders. I recall a 2nd round OT being on almost no ones's 2nd round board. Vollmer was a great choice. Upon further review, it was found that some top media folks did in fact have Vollmer rated aound where he ws picked (notably Gosselin).

Use Gosselin's final 1st round mock and Gosselin's final 50 and you will be unlikely to be shocked with any Belichick 1st round picks.

Ha! Beware of the rose-tinted glasses when you review previous drafts. It is easy to say that the picks were understandable in retrospect but let's hear your predictions for the Patriots' first few picks this year. We have all been shocked by BB's picks even the experts (such as they are) in the media. At the time they are always shocking but looking back they seem more sensible.