Another Taboo Elephant! [Mac Jones playing well in SF]

[TheRainMaker]

That may end up being a very bad contract.

The 49ers keep complaining about all the money they are handing out like Oprah handing out prizes, but continue to pay guys when they don't have to. Purdy is the latest example. I would've fine paying him prior to 2024, but he was pretty bad last season when his All Star cast was absent. After what I saw in 2024, I would've told him he has to play out his contract. He'd have pretty much no leverage at this point.

 

[Vindicate]

Couldn't have said it better.

And we also learned that Mac's "high floor" wasn't nearly as high as we thought. Give him awful coaching like what he had in 22-23 and the bottom falls out.

Y'all are incredible at favorably remembering Mac Jones lmao. What's next, Jordan Richards had all the promise, he was just ruined by BB?

 

[sb1]

Y'all are incredible at favorably remembering Mac Jones lmao. What's next, Jordan Richards had all the promise, he was just ruined by BB?

Well Jones was a consensus 1st round pick and Richards was a UDFA level talent that BB picked in the 2nd round. Slight difference there. It's also true that Jones's coaching was terrible in 22-23.

My point was it turned out his "high floor" wasn't high at all and it showed.

 

[Vindicate]

Well Jones was a consensus 1st round pick and Richards was a UDFA level talent that BB picked in the 2nd round. Slight difference there. It's also true that Jones's coaching was terrible in 22-23.

My point was it turned out his "high floor" wasn't high at all and it showed.

I'm a moron, I read your post wrong lol. My bad.

 

[sb1]

I'm a moron, I read your post wrong lol. My bad.

That's ok I've been there too many times to count lol

Re Jones I said before it's so interesting that the consensus was he was a perfect fit in NE. Swing and a miss there...

 

[Bill Lee]

I always go back to the old "Dalton Scale" from the ATN podcast. Andy Dalton in the early to mid-2010's was the perfect example of the line of delineation for starting quarterbacks. Anyone better than him you could win with and potentially win a Super Bowl with if the supporting cast was good enough. Anything worse than Dalton and you should be actively looking to replace your QB.

My perspective is that Dalton was the line of delineation between franchise-level QBs and replacement-level QBs. For me franchise level gave you more than Dalton's "one and done" playoff experiences. Replacement level meant you couldn't expect to even be one-and-done in the playoffs. This is how I read Chris's original definition of it being "purgatory". As a team you were right on that line and not on either side of that line, in a state of limbo on what to do with that QB. Yet for a lot of teams the occasional playoff experience would be a huge improvement for them. IMO in the post-Chris era the discussion often got dragged down to replacement-level starter vs non-starter level, but that's a topic for another day.

The group usually excluded rookies and second year QB's and would judge the rest of the starters and there always seemed to be a gray area on the contract factor. Cheap guys close to the Dalton line would seemingly get nudged above it while expensive guys hovering by the line (Lawrence and Tua being two current examples) usually got bumped below it because they were paid like franchise quarterbacks but weren't performing as such.

I may be a more harsh grader than most but I think Purdy is the prime candidate for the modern day Dalton Scale.

Excluding rookies and second year guys:

Mahomes
Allen
Jackson
Stafford
Burrow
Herbert
Hurts
Prescott
Mayfield
Love
Stroud
Goff
Rodgers

----Purdy-----

Lawrence
Kyler Murray
Geno Smith
Bryce Young
Tua
Fields

And the two very debatable ones on either side of the Purdy line would be Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold. Jones is obviously playing better than he ever has in his career but it is a small sample size. Darnold it is becoming increasing harder to put him below the line after a very good year in Minnesota and now a solid start in Seattle.

I like your grading. For me I'd grade a bit harder and put the line around Love in your scale. He's a small sample size guy for me though. Yet I'd feel if I had to decide to sign him or not I'd feel like he would keep me in purgatory as opposed to putting me over the line to franchise quality.

Last season coming off his injury I had Dak Prescott at or below the line. This season he seems to have his moxie back and is definitely playing above the line. I didn't see this coming. I thought he'd just fade away and the big contract Jerrah gave him would look terrible. To me he looks like a different guy this season. Looks like having Pickens has been big for him. The point is, these things can change pretty quick. Maybe Love will look better to me next season, maybe not.

 

[203Pat]

My perspective is that Dalton was the line of delineation between franchise-level QBs and replacement-level QBs. For me franchise level gave you more than Dalton's "one and done" playoff experiences. Replacement level meant you couldn't expect to even be one-and-done in the playoffs. This is how I read Chris's original definition of it being "purgatory". As a team you were right on that line and not on either side of that line, in a state of limbo on what to do with that QB. Yet for a lot of teams the occasional playoff experience would be a huge improvement for them. IMO in the post-Chris era the discussion often got dragged down to replacement-level starter vs non-starter level, but that's a topic for another day.



I like your grading. For me I'd grade a bit harder and put the line around Love in your scale. He's a small sample size guy for me though. Yet I'd feel if I had to decide to sign him or not I'd feel like he would keep me in purgatory as opposed to putting me over the line to franchise quality.

Last season coming off his injury I had Dak Prescott at or below the line. This season he seems to have his moxie back and is definitely playing above the line. I didn't see this coming. I thought he'd just fade away and the big contract Jerrah gave him would look terrible. To me he looks like a different guy this season. Looks like having Pickens has been big for him. The point is, these things can change pretty quick. Maybe Love will look better to me next season, maybe not.

I always loved the Dalton Scale episodes because it always sparked great discussion back when it was the original group. You had multiple perspectives and biases that fed into it which always skewed each of the heroes view. Dan and Marc being Jets and Browns fans seemed to grade differently because of how bad their teams were and they could never find a QB. Chris created the whole thing with his team's QB, Dalton, as the human NFL purgatory. Then there was Gregg who was used to watching greatness every week but for some reason (always had a hunch why) he would champion these very mediocre Bridgewater and Geno Smith types and rank them higher than the rest of the group.

I agree though on a handful of these guys moving above or below the line every year. Love is one that I agree is closer to an Andy Dalton but I think he gets elevated above the line because of the situation he is in. Drafted to a very well run organization and sat behind a hall of famer for a couple years before having to start. If he was drafted by the Jets or Browns 5 years ago there is a solid chance he would be out of the league by now. Those were the types of nuances that drove a lot of the great discussion in the early ATN days when it came to this subject. I don't listen much to HTC now to know if they have a current version of the Dalton Scale but from what I have listened to post-Gregg and Chris it doesn't seem to have the same level of varying opinions that made the old show what it was.

 

[Bill Lee]

I don't listen much to HTC now to know if they have a current version of the Dalton Scale but from what I have listened to post-Gregg and Chris it doesn't seem to have the same level of varying opinions that made the old show what it was.

It pretty much happens once a year on HTC and IMO they could really do with a better understanding of where Chris was coming from.

HTC is more entertainment than analysis these days, but I'm okay with that. I think it's pretty hard to find entertaining sports talk these days that isn't just dumping on the players, and I think they do a good job of not crossing the line. Dan and Marc wove themselves into my DNA during the ATN era, especially during the Bunker Cast shows during the COVID era. I won't quit them.

Also I won't do NFL Daily. Gregg just isn't host material IMO and the show as a whole is way too close to the NFL party line for me to enjoy listening to it. To me at times it feels like a parent trying to convince their kids to enjoy eating the peas.

 

[203Pat]

It pretty much happens once a year on HTC and IMO they could really do with a better understanding of where Chris was coming from.

HTC is more entertainment than analysis these days, but I'm okay with that. I think it's pretty hard to find entertaining sports talk these days that isn't just dumping on the players, and I think they do a good job of not crossing the line. Dan and Marc wove themselves into my DNA during the ATN era, especially during the Bunker Cast shows during the COVID era. I won't quit them.

Also I won't do NFL Daily. Gregg just isn't host material IMO and the show as a whole is way too close to the NFL party line for me to enjoy listening to it. To me at times it feels like a parent trying to convince their kids to enjoy eating the peas.

I do need to rekindle HTC and give it another shot but I am already trying to keep up with Patriots Unfiltered now with their 3 shows a week and pre and postgame shows now that my kid is in kindergarten and I don't have the commute to listen lol.

 

[Toofy]

With whatever is happening to teams that signed tua or purdy or hurts or Lawrence, I feel days of overpaying for 10-25 ranked QB might be over.

It might be the age of game managers like Mac or garopollo wherein you stack team and see if they can go the distance. If we look at Superbowls , it's won either by superstar QBs or superstar teams . Hurts and folds are the non stud QBs who won because of strength of team as well as stupidity / stubbornness of opposing coach.

Teams will start to build teams around rookie QB till they find the one like maye .most of the mid tier ones will not get 30-40 million like what they gave to Geno and Daniel Jones in NY .

I would like to see what Daniel Jones gets on his next contract . I am thinking it's closer to 25 million a year with heavy incentives to bring closer to 35 million.

40+ million should be for quarterbacks who can elevate their wide receivers. If you need weapons , we need to pay those weapons and for that you need a pay cut.

Tua, hurts and purdy look like gross overpays. At least hurts got a Superbowl.

Elite tier - mahomes , josh Allen, Stafford, Lamar, burrow , Herbert and possibly maye. ( 50 million +)

Second tier - Baker Mayfield, Daniels ( 40 million), Jared goff, Dak and Jordan Love


3rd tier or below - rest of em (25-30 million with Incentives increasing base sal by another 10-12 million on yearly basis ) and guaranteed money only for 2 years or max of 80 million .

Days of nonsensical QB contracts will be over.

 

[rochrist]

but isn't the back up QB's job to win games while the starter is out?
Mac has done exactly that. with a very injured SF team, and battling injury himself. that said, he not only is out playing one of the biggest busts of the past decade, he is also doing better than half the QB's in the league

2025 NFL Season Leaders Total QBR | ESPN

Visit ESPN to view NFL Total QBR for the current and previous seasons

www.espn.com

How do you figure that? He's 17th in yards, 15th in completion percentage, 26th in TDs, 19th in passer rating. He's a decent backup. He isn't and will never be more than that.

 

[Bill Lee]

With whatever is happening to teams that signed tua or purdy or hurts or Lawrence, I feel days of overpaying for 10-25 ranked QB might be over.

I don't see how things change, personally. There just aren't enough decent QBs. Demand is greater than supply. This lets meh quarterbacks get paid big time money.

It might be the age of game managers like Mac or garopollo wherein you stack team and see if they can go the distance. If we look at Superbowls , it's won either by superstar QBs or superstar teams . Hurts and folds are the non stud QBs who won because of strength of team as well as stupidity / stubbornness of opposing coach.

Most teams simply do not have the patience to stack their team. Most do what the Jets have done time and time again, get a few decent "name players" then convince themselves they are just one good QB away from winning it all, then they put someone like Zach Wilson or Aaron Rodgers behind a terrible OL and wonder why they don't play well.

Teams will start to build teams around rookie QB till they find the one like maye .

Easier said than done. We had to suck for two seasons to get good enough draft position to hope to get Maye, and we needed two other teams to decide that they liked other guys more than Maye, then we spent a season wondering if Maye was any good or not, then we got lucky that our owner was able to admit that he screwed up hiring an inexperienced dude, and got lucky that the right experienced HC and OC were available just when we needed them.

I agree this is the right strategy, but one thing teams lack is patience. We here sure do. We keep getting posts like why aren't Williams, Henderson or Chism game changers yet? Some players hit instantly, some players just take longer to develop. I wouldn't panic till after two full seasons.

Most GMs and coaches know they won't get two seasons to do a rebuild, yet it can easily take that. A bad team in a good division tends to stay bad. Good FAs don't want to go to bad teams. One year of a tough schedule at the wrong time can get the whole staff fired the the next GM gets to take advantage of their good drafting and/or accumulation of draft capital.

The mosbtiee will not get 30-40 million .

LOL, hope you had a nice night!

I would like to see what Daniel Jones gets on his next contract . I am thinking it's closer to 25 million a year with heavy incentives.

The same GM you praised for building a team around Hurts also gave Carson Wentz a four-year, $128M second contract in 2019.

Someone will pay Daniel Jones more than he's worth.

 

[Wozzy]

Thanks for your comments. I appreciate the criticism. I also appreciate that others understand there isn't a lot to be gained about arguing over who is a backup and not a backup. In my book Gee No Smith is a backup who he got paid to be a starter, so indeed he is a starter, and that's what I see for Mac at some point in time as well.

The thing I'll push back in more detail is the idea that all first-rounders are the same. Most NFL analysts think the quality drops off somewhere after the 8th to 10th pick in most drafts. And of course there are outliers you can find. Tony Romo was a UDFA and had a pretty good NFL career. But in general the higher draft picks have more value and the proof is that teams will give up more resources to get the higher draft picks. The difference in value gets reflected in the draft value charts. Below we see a standard chart with the #1 overall getting 300 points and #15 getting 1050 points. So teams will give up almost three times as much resources to get the first overall pick than #15 where Mac Jones was taken. You also see the drop-off between #7 and #8 is 100 points but the drop between #8 and #9 is 50 points. This is the steepening in the drop off that I mentioned earlier.

Draft Pick Value Chart



I find the following to be interesting:

NFL Draft Value Chart (Updated 2023!) - The Data Jocks

We use quadratic programming, approximate value, and adjustments to replacement level to compute the most accurate possible NFL draft value chart

thedatajocks.com

The black dots are their average values chosen as follows:

The single most important data point that went into our analysis is pro-football-reference’s approximate value statistic. In the simplest possible terms, approximate value is a way to measure how good a player was over the course of their career. It takes into account both a player’s dominance at their peak and their longevity. While not a perfect measure, a player with approximate value 50 was worth about twice as much as a player with approximate value 25.​

​

This statistic formed the basis for our analysis. For each pick number, we computed the average approximate value of all players drafted at that pick. We only used the value that a player accrued for the duration of their tenure with the team that drafted them. For example, to estimate the value of the first overall pick, we first went through all the drafts since 1980 and tabulated all the first overall picks.​

​

Using only the seasons that a player was on the roster of the team that drafted them is the correct choice because players don’t stay with one team their whole career. If they did, draft picks would be more valuable. Other analysts that have done similar work use career approximate value which doesn’t take this into account.​

If you use a statistically significant approximation of value you still get the same kind of curve as the typical draft chart, exponential drop off favoring high draft picks.

Thanks for a measured reasonable response. Only thing I’ll disagree with is I don’t think all first are the same, top picks have more value for a reason, but imo people overlook the fact some franchises are run by morons and spend high draft picks on flawed undeserving prospects.

Draft position isn’t why players succeed or fail, after the draft where a player was drafted or if he didn’t get drafted at all doesn’t matter. Jaxson Dart for some weird reason wasn’t considered for the top QB spot in the last draft, that confused me at the time. At least seven teams needed QB’s and passed on him, that’s negligence. Dak Prescott fell to the 4th round, there are good players found in every round… there are just few quality QB’s in every draft class. Not unique for a specialty position really, there are fewer qualified kickers also.

 

[Wozzy]

you choose to ignore the fact that Mac has started and won 4 games and has counting stats superior to Lawrence, who is also a starter
Mac also has stats that far out pace half the leagues starters.
but hey, why quibble over facts, right?

Backup QB’s job is to play well enough to win games and not lose them. Mac has played at a backup level and Shanahan does a decent job suppressing his mistakes and playing within his limitations. He’s a backup, there’s nothing wrong with that.

 

[Wozzy]

There is a statue of Nick Foles in Philly. Definitely not a JAG thanks to BB...

Donte Hightower, Alan Branch, Jon Jones and Patrick Chung all got hurt and missed some, most or all of the playoffs. The coach can’t control injuries.

Also keep in mind, before he got hurt starter Carson Wentz was playing at an MVP level. It’s a team sport, if you have the league’s best offensive line, defense and good weapons even an average QB can go far. The same way and uber talented QB can miss the playoff entirely if his team sucks.

 

[mgteich]

The coach can’t control injuries.

control? no
reduce the likelihood? yes

 

[Wozzy]

control? no
reduce the likelihood? yes

I can spin straw into gold… trust me bro.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

You OK, Jeff?

Six NFL trades we’d like to see: Alvin Kamara to Chiefs, Trey Hendrickson to Cowboys

These proposals are high-octane, would move the needle and have significant impacts on the fortunes of teams with championship aspirations.

www.nytimes.com

San Francisco 49ers trade QB Mac Jones and a 2026 fifth-round pick to Minnesota Vikings for a 2026 third-rounder and a 2027 conditional third-rounder (becomes a second-rounder if Jones makes 17 total starts with the Vikings between 2025 and 2026)

Why it makes sense

Jeff Howe: Jones has been a very good backup this season, and he’s shown enough to jump to the top of the line among QB reclamation projects. But since Jones is playing well in place of Brock Purdy, who is becoming more of an injury risk, the Niners won’t give him away when they’ve got him signed through 2027. The Vikings don’t need to give up on 2024 first-rounder J.J. McCarthy, but they also don’t want to sacrifice a roster that’s able to make a playoff push. Jones is having even more success than Sam Darnold had in San Francisco before his stock took off with the Vikings. Jones might be able to replicate that success.

 

[Bill Lee]

You OK, Jeff?

Indeed, it should be "why this doesn't make sense!".

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Purdy out again this week, Mac gets another start.