Can you give me other examples of this, where the second best guy puts up 200+ more yards over each of two years and has a much higher snap percentage? Typically the guy who plays the most, has the highest snap percentage, puts up the best numbers is considered the best wr. I realize we all fell in love with Deebo’s toughness in 2022, but SF overworked him and cooked him that year. Aiyuk, a former first round pick, is just better now.
Diggs did well in MN with Thielan, then was a stud after him in Buf. Chase does better than Higgins. AJ Brown does better than Smith. Hill outperforms Waddle. All things being equal, the guy who plays better, is better
This was a post from a few weeks ago saying something very similar.
"I like Aiyuk, but not that much. He gets a lot favorable coverage with teams worrying about Kittle, McCaffery and Samuel. Not to mention he has the best play designer in the league along with Andy Reid."
My answer...
To the bolded. Teams aren't playing Aiyuk any lesser or giving him "favorable" coverage bc of those guys. Kyle is definitely one of the better designers in the game though. All those guys are "schemed" open to a point but Aiyuk is actually someone they use as a "man/coverage beater." Deebo gets fed manipulated touches and is a big asset behind the los but McCaffrey has almost made that part of his game redundant believe it or not. And thats really where Kyle's strengths play through. A)Confusion behind the los.
B)making you think youre seeing 100 different plays but its only a 1/3 of that. Its just that he has position-less/interchangeable guys in Caff, Kittle, Juice, Deebo, Aiyuk ...
C)making you defend every blade of grass with an elite skill group/elite 5.
Recently he's taken some PA out of his plays and replaced it with what's "looks" like a run play - motion / going out wide or vice-versa with Juice. Thats who really dictates a coverage bc you have to respect the run when he's in there. Him and McVay have broken away from the traditional "Shanahan type offense" in a few regards but kept some staples. One being less PA, more straight dropbacks with Stafford and Purdy. Again with what "looks" like a run play.
Aiyuks the one guy on that roster you can line up out wide and just ask him to win against man/cb1 coverage and he's been seeing that type of attention from teams. He definitely gets helped by Shanahan but has become a solid WR1B after the big boys (Adams, Jefferson, Hill, Lamb etc)
Last point. It's ok to have help. No one has had more scheme + good coaching help over the last 5-6 years than Ty Hill. He's landed in perfect offenses for him. Ran by two perfect QB for said systems (No Tua isnt elite but hes nasty in that system) and two coaches that have been copied for years/decades.
"He caught 14 of 20 passes thrown both outside the numbers and 15-plus air yards last season, the best rate (70%) of any player in the last four seasons (min. 20 targets)" - cbs
"No qualifying receiver (at least 50 catches total over the last two seasons) has a higher Success Rate (receptions of at least 40% of yards required on first down, at least 60% of yards required on second down, and 100% of required yards on third or fourth down, divided by targets) than Aiyuk, and only Rashid Shaheed of the New Orleans Saints (11.1) has a higher Yards per Target average over the last two seasons than Aiyuk’s 10.8. And Aiyuk’s catch rate of 69.9% is unusually high for a guy with so many deep targets" - Doug Farrar
Y/R 17.9 (2nd)
1342 (7th) - - - (Out of the top 10 in rec yards he had at least 27 less than the next wr)
1st down % (1st)
YPR (2nd or 3rd I know its Hill, Nico? than Aiyuk or Aiyuk is 2nd) - - - (PFF - In the past 10 years, only six receivers have hit 3.0 yards per route run over a season, Aiyuk being one of them)
NFL Receiver Tracking Metrics - ESPN Analytics
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***side note***
It's well known Aiyuk was dealing with a core injury when he ran the 40. It's not really a big negative in context. Also BA has an incredible wingspan at 80". Hardly just a guy that runs a "4.5"
---ASTB--- Give Aiyuk more targets and you have a more explosive player and probably still more efficient. Plus Aiyuk is more of an outside threat. He's very as good or better than ASTB.
ASTB had 164 targets this past year for 1515 10 TD 12.7 Y/R
72.6%
22 - 146 targets - 1161 - 6 TD - 10.0 Y/R
72.6%
BA
23 - 105 targets - 1342 - 7 TD - 17.9 Y/R
71.4% catch rate
22 - 114 targets - 1015 - 8 TD - 13.0 Y/R - 68.4 catch rate
......
You are right though. For the most part you know who the better player is and BA is the best WR on that team. Deebo is a gadget/behind the los, possession wr. It sounds nice to say "teams are worried about Kittle, Caff etc" but that's not really true to begin with and teams absolutely recognize and treat him as WR1. Teams view him as WR1 and SF uses him as the X, coverage/man beater. Hes clearly put himself in that tier 2 of wr.
