A statistical argument for a Pats/Packers Super Bowl

[Rob0729]

I found a good article arguing how the Pats and Packers are easily the least flawed teams of the primary contenders and should be on a collision course to the Super Bowl based on expected points scored by field position to start a drive for both the offense and defense (based on scoring for the season).

I am also sure the "Denver did it right this offseason" crowd will love how they argue that not only is Denver worse on offense this year from last year, but probably worse on defense too.

Also, a comparison of the Pats' 2007 offense compared to the Broncos 2013 offense and how the Pats' offense was amazing in scoring starting anywhere on the field while the Broncos needed better field position to score.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...up-the-inevitable-patriotspackers-super-bowl/

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I like this because it says stuff with which I agree, especially re the Donkeys. But, when it comes to predicting stuff, 538 should probably stick to politics.

 

[oldrover]

Man, those graphs lose me. I do not get half of what he's talking about.

In fact, let me express my stupidity with a graphic:

 

[Froob]

Two #1's rarely meet so I don't think it'll happen. Seahawks will knock off GB.

 

[Rob0729]

I like this because it says stuff with which I agree, especially re the Donkeys. But, when it comes to predicting stuff, 538 should probably stick to politics.

Stats like these do not take into account stuff like injuries, teams getting hot in the playoffs, a team shooting themselves in the foot, etc. I don't believe in predictions anyway, I just found it interesting.

 

[Rob0729]

Man, those graphs lose me. I do not get half of what he's talking about.

In fact, let me express my stupidity with a graphic:

It took a little time for me to figure it out:



The bottom line is starting field position. So left to right, is the Pats 0 yard line to the opponents' 0 yard line. The left hand margin is basically the average points scored (actually the expected points scored since they haven't started on every yard line this year) when the Pats (or their opponents) start at a given field position. For example, the Pats have averaged 1 point when they started on their own 10 yard line and averaged 5 1/2 points when start on the opponent's 10 yard line.

 

[Nikolai]

Thanks for the link! Not too much to add here...except this is my kind of analysis and the conclusions aren't too far off in my view. Not much can account for injuries or changes in gameplans that can affect the trajectory of a team. I don't see this as a predictive tool necessarily. You'd need to add probabilities for all of those different scenarios and ascribe a "quantitative" value (it's actually qualitative in nature) to them and create a "most probable" scenario with a swing in either direction to account for other probabilities.

 

[woolster22]

Stats like these do not take into account stuff like injuries, teams getting hot in the playoffs, a team shooting themselves in the foot, etc. I don't believe in predictions anyway, I just found it interesting.

You forgot the always timely Hochuli cluster f#!& game changer.

We also have the fan favorite, OC went on a bender all week and the game plan is garbage. This generally precedes said coach shooting the team in the foot through an inability to adjust the game plan, while banging his head against the wall and sticking to his guns. This tends to cause whiskey sales to skyrocket, and causes workplace productivity on Monday to be about as efficient as Geno Smith.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Stats like these do not take into account stuff like injuries, teams getting hot in the playoffs, a team shooting themselves in the foot, etc. I don't believe in predictions anyway, I just found it interesting.

yeah. if it agrees with me, it must be right...otherwise, not so much...
Go Pats!