A Hypothesis...

[AzPatsFan]

The only games i can see that will be real tough are @cinci, @miami, and home against Indy.

We dominated Denver in the playoffs with a mangled roster. I think if we are healthy it should not be a problem. And Chicago is a joke they won't give us trouble their offense is horrendous. Our second game in NY might be tough too, but other than those 4, theres no problems. Unless all our DBs go on th e IR again.

Indy will not be as good in 2006 as in 2005. Addai won't replace Edge fully. Their Defense relies and depends on the Offense to outscore the guys they are supposed to stop. Thier Defense got weaker if that is possible. Who replaces Tripplett and Thornton?

Substituting AV for their kicker is a wash except in a pressure situation. Substituting an 80% kicker for 80% kicker doesn't mean much to a team that must win by a couple of TDs or lose. They don't win the close ones because the Defense can't hold. I don't even think Indy wins the AFCS, Jax does.

Cincinnatti is still an Offensive machine with an incomplete Defense. The AFCN is going to be much more of a Tong war than it used to be. The Ravens look improved; Boller finally finding himself, and McNair will straighten out their QB problems. RAC is making the Browns capable of upsetting some of its opponents. Of course, Pitt has seasoned its new QB so they will be stronger.

We won't play San Diego except in the playoffs; They are becoming a roster very Patriots like, in quality and depth. A team to be freared. KC and Denver and SD should have a little internecine war as well, beating each other up. SD will start slow breaking in a new QB, but they will be tough at seasons end.

In summary, there should be real races to beat up and moderate the won loss records in the AFCW, AFCS and AFCN. Advantage Patriots for HFA.

As for the AFCE, the Jets are back to ground zero along with the Bills. They are both in the Quinn Dorsey QB draft competition. Saban has stabilized the Phish, but without a draft thanks to the previous regime, he takes a consolidating step...Backwards. He has no Offensive line, nor even the bricks to build one. His Defensive line has some ageing & crumbling bricks too, and he has no new bricks to shore it up either.

The Miami and Jax games are not in the Florida heat in September, but rather in beautiful December. The temperature will do much to pull the fangs of the 12th man on the field, for the Florida teams, the Weatherman.

 

[Kdo5]

AzPatsFan,

I looked at our schedule and came to the same conclsuion. At the absolute very worst, I see the '06 Pats finishing at 12-4. That schedule is the easiest I've seen for the Pats in a while.

2006 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Time/Result
Sep 10	Buffalo	1:00pm
Sep 17	@N.Y. Jets	4:15pm
Sep 24	Denver	8:15pm
Oct 1	@Cincinnati	4:15pm
Oct 8	Miami	1:00pm
Week 6	BYE	
Oct 22	@Buffalo	1:00pm
Oct 30	@Minnesota	8:30pm
Nov 5	Indianapolis	8:15pm
Nov 12	N.Y. Jets	1:00pm
Nov 19	@Green Bay	1:00pm
Nov 26	Chicago	1:00pm
Dec 3	Detroit	1:00pm
Dec 10	@Miami	1:00pm
Dec 17	Houston	1:00pm
Dec 24	@Jacksonville	1:00pm
Dec 31	@Tennessee	1:00pm

I fully expect them to win those last eight games.

 

[patpatriot]

The optimism is well founded.

If the Pats are lucky enough to minimize injuries (and I think the cumulative or perhaps statistical effect of all those extra playoff games had something to do with their remarkable rash of injuries over the last 2 years), then tell me who in the NFL is a better team? Seattle? Pittsburgh? Denver? Indy? All of them could, on a given Sunday, beat the Pats but if you matched the Pats up against these teams for a 5 game series, at a neutral site, I believe the Pats would win 4 out of 5 or 3 out of 5 worst possible case with all of them.

The Pats have question marks at LB, KR, and most of all at kicker ( the Pats are designed to stay close with teams and win in the 4th quarter due to superior conditioning, experience, game planning, and FG kicker execution). The kicker situation could most of all bite them in the butt so they will have to be more productive in the Red Zone in getting more points (TDs vs FGs). The addition of Thomas, Mills, and even O'Callahan could improve that aspect of the Pats Red Zone game.

The Pats have strengthened themselves in the Kick coverage game tremendously through FA and the draft. If they can find productive kick returners, they will have an even greater advantage.

Potential KRs include Maroney, Andrews, and Johnson on kickoffs with Jackson, Andrews and Brown on punt returns. This is a solid group of players. Hopefully with the addition of more productive KR blockers (Thomas, Mills, Mincey, possibly Claridge), some of these guys will bring the Pat's KR game back to where it used to be (reliably productive and occasionally explosive). At the very least we shouldn't have to close our eyes whenever the Pats kickoff (especially if Gostkowski wins the kicker competition, though Gramatica has been a productive Kickoff specialist as well).

Thanks to the relative weakness of the Pats schedule (which many have commented on), the team should have the opportunity to work the rookies/inexperienced players into the team without the kind of Baptism by Fire that Hobbs and kazur experienced last year.

All in all my opinion is that the Pats are a potentailly stronger team with a weaker schedule than last year.

Finally, to answer Miguel's question, I am much more optimistic (as are the bookies in las Vegas I believe) about the fortunes of this years team than last years mostly due to strength of schedule.

 

[363839]

Patsfan, What are the Vegas odds?

 

[PatsFanInVa]

I don't know whether these are silly odds or real vegas style odds (though I would bet [sic] they are the former,) but USA today has the Colts at 6-1 and the Pats at 6-1 on top of the heap.

That said - irrational optimism at its finest. But what do you do when our cakewalk in game 16 turns into a slugfest with the startling 13-2 Tennessee Titans? This is just an example of the "HUH???" factor you incur, going by the schedule. By the same token our game against the Broncs, so crucial seeming at the outset, turns into a game we squeeked out against an 8-8 squad in retrospect (maybe). These fluctuations are as maddening as they are constant. Take a moment out to realize that since 2001, the Pats have descended ONCE to 9-7 - pretty decent validation of their approach to things.

I'm calling it 12-4. I called 2004 12-4 as well, mind you. I just cannot justify a pre-season call higher than that, without the addition of a bona fide superstar or something (say, Terrell Owens with a boy scout attitude.) There are too many intangibles, injury being just one of them.

Anyway - from your lips to God's ears!

PFnV

 

[AllabouttheVinces]

The upcoming edition of the 2006 Patriots is the Deepest, Strongest, most talented, and Best Team from top to bottom, on Offense and Defense, all the way through the Practice Squad, of any Patriots Team in history.

I consider it better it most respects to the Team that won twenty-one straight and established the all time NFL record for most consecutive victories.

Wow! Are you sure that's just Kool-Aid you've been drinking? I agree that 2006 should produce a better record than 2005, and the best thing going for the Pats is we won't have the toughest sched in the NFL again. Jax made the playoffs in '05 with a cupcake sched. The Pats will get similar treatment in '06, but slightly tougher because it's a 1st place sched.

Injuries and the tough sched in '05 led to the 31st place pass defense for the Pats. Healthy bodies and the easier '06 sched should result in improvement this year.

If you had said Deepest, Strongest, most talented etc. on Offense, I could agree. The draft brought a wealth of new talent on O. But the depth on D just isn't there, at LB, DB and NT.

Best ever? Not so fast. Too many players coming off injury, a few people getting long in the tooth, and some unproven young depth.

 

[Urgent]

It is my considered opinion after much thought and analysis that:

The upcoming edition of the 2006 Patriots is the Deepest, Strongest, most talented, and Best Team from top to bottom, on Offense and Defense, all the way through the Practice Squad, of any Patriots Team in history.

In the sweet immortal words of Graham Chapman: You're a loony, that's what you are.

The 2004 team had:
Brady for all 16 games
A healthy and motivated Dillon running for 1600 yards
A WR corps including Branch, Givens, Brown, Johnson, and sometimes Patten
A healthy OL with Light, Andruzzi, Koppen, Neal, and Gorin
Both Wilfork and Traylor rotating at DE
A healthy Seymour and Warren, with Seymour missing the playoffs prior to the Super Bowl
McGinest, Vrabel, Johnson, Bruschi, and Phifer at LB, with Colvin getting better over the course of the season
Rodney Harrison at the top of his game
The one weakness was the CB rotation, when the team lost both Poole and Law. Neither, however, are with the 2006 team, and Hobbs is no Law.
And, finally, Adam Vinatieri at kicker.

The 2003-2004 team set a record for most consecutive wins. They were deep and talented.

You have to view the 2006 team, right now, as weaker at WR, LB, and K at a minimum.
Caldwell and Jackson might replace Givens, but neither is an upgrade.
Losing Johnson, Phifer, and McGinest without any replacements, is huge.
Harrison's health is still up in the air.

This team could be good, but it's hard to imagine it will be as dominant as the 2004 team - and the current roster just doesn't justify that argument.

Many fans could claim equally unsupported optimism, and I guess there's nothing wrong with that.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Interesting prediction. The last time I predicted the Pats would go undefeated... they didn't go undefeated but they won 21 straight games.

Yeah that's right. It was the preseason following the Pats first 14-2 season. I felt that the Pats of 2004 would be the deepest most talented squad yet. And they did everything I expected, except go undefeated. Hehe.

But I'll take the SB championship over the regular season undefeated any time so I was satisfied. The Pats this year I think if HEALTHY do have some great potential. As far as starters go this team is set.

On defense we just need to add some depth at LB and S.

The offense is reloaded and looking like it will be the best Pats offensive team since 1996. Possibly BETTER. We might need to add another WR for depth or honestly we might not with all the TE sets we run. And we have 4 tight ends now if you count Mill as one of em.

Dunno what to make of 2005 except that we had 2 adverse factors going against us, lots of injuries to key personnel, and basically a coaching transition. We had new guys calling the O and D coordinator roles. Those guys will have another year of experience under their belts.

I think the Pats will be the Dark Horse this year. Everyone will be picking the Colts or Steelers. As the underdogs, the Pats really love that role, and I think they will surprise everyone again this year.

With this type of talent and this type of schedule, and another year for our coordinators to get their playcalling settled down. Yeah I think the Pats will make a big splash this year. Looking forward to seeing Brady vs Rothlisberger in the AFCC! That matchup would be hot!

 

[Miguel]

Before the 2005 season started it was that the Patriots had the best and deepest receiving corps. 4 of those players (Givens, Davis, Dwight, Fauria) are now gone from the team.

In the summer of 2005 a reporter (David Smith from FootballGuys.Com???) came onto this board in order to defend his grade of the Patriots' offensive line. His concerns about the Patriots' replacing yet another starter (Woody in 2004, Andruzzi in 2005) were roundly dismissed. His point about the Patriots just being one injury from having two rookies start on the OL proved to be prophetic.

What did I learn from the above two instances??

Fans of a team tend to overrate the players on their team and that fans of a team did to discount the importance of roster continuity.

This year the Pats will be replacing their defensive coordinator for the 2nd straigtht year. This year the Pats will be replacing yet another starter (Ashworth) on the offensive line. This year the Pats will be replacing their 2nd best receiver (Patten in 2004, Givens in 2005) for the 2nd straight year.

It just seems to me AT THIS TIME that everything has to go right (no major injuries, rookies play like seasoned vets, young players stepping up), and nothing can go wrong for the 2006 Pats to top the 2004 Pats.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

This year the Pats will be replacing yet another starter (Ashworth) on the offensive line. This year the Pats will be replacing their 2nd best receiver (Patten in 2004, Givens in 2005) for the 2nd straight year.

It just seems to me AT THIS TIME that everything has to go right (no major injuries, rookies play like seasoned vets, young players stepping up), and nothing can go wrong for the 2006 Pats to top the 2004 Pats.

Agreed, certainly - but the point is to top the 2006 everybody elses. I like us versus the 2005 Pats, and I never gave up on that squad. Of course, this is contingent on the guys who come back staying back, and for the injury bug to be a bit less voracious this year than last.

What wins it this year? Staying moderately healthy, in terms of new injuries. Half a healthy year out of Rodney. Wilson playing like it's 2004. Dillon playing like it's 2004, or Maroney transitioning in and succeeding. I think pretty highly of our young secondary guys, but obviously they have to play like they did at the end of the year or better, not relapse.

A lot of question marks. Certainly no slam dunk. Reason to hope, not expect.

PFnV

 

[AzPatsFan]

In the sweet immortal words of Graham Chapman: You're a loony, that's what you are.

The 2004 team had:
Brady for all 16 games
A healthy and motivated Dillon running for 1600 yards
A WR corps including Branch, Givens, Brown, Johnson, and sometimes Patten
A healthy OL with Light, Andruzzi, Koppen, Neal, and Gorin
Both Wilfork and Traylor rotating at DE
A healthy Seymour and Warren, with Seymour missing the playoffs prior to the Super Bowl
McGinest, Vrabel, Johnson, Bruschi, and Phifer at LB, with Colvin getting better over the course of the season
Rodney Harrison at the top of his game
The one weakness was the CB rotation, when the team lost both Poole and Law. Neither, however, are with the 2006 team, and Hobbs is no Law.
And, finally, Adam Vinatieri at kicker.

The 2003-2004 team set a record for most consecutive wins. They were deep and talented.

You have to view the 2006 team, right now, as weaker at WR, LB, and K at a minimum.
Caldwell and Jackson might replace Givens, but neither is an upgrade.
Losing Johnson, Phifer, and McGinest without any replacements, is huge.
Harrison's health is still up in the air.

This team could be good, but it's hard to imagine it will be as dominant as the 2004 team - and the current roster just doesn't justify that argument.

Many fans could claim equally unsupported optimism, and I guess there's nothing wrong with that.

That team also had few injuries, where it hurt. It was not as deep as this one in several areas. The only squad where it had more depth was ironically LB!

This team is stronger on the OL DL RB, TE, QB and DBs. That team was stronger at LB and kicking.

 

[arrellbee]

That team also had few injuries, where it hurt. It was not as deep as this one in several areas. The only squad where it had more depth was ironically LB!

This team is stronger on the OL DL RB, TE, QB and DBs. That team was stronger at LB and kicking.

You didn't comment on WR one way or another. That position is probably a pretty critical one in assessing overall team strength.

 

[spacecrime]

This team could be good, but it's hard to imagine it will be as dominant as the 2004 team - and the current roster just doesn't justify that argument.

This is exactly what everyone said before the 2004 season. The team will never be as good as 2003.

Starting 2004, we lost our #2 receiver, Ted Washington, and Damien Woody. Our starting left guard, too, though not such a bid deal.

People said, as you said:

This team could be good, but it's hard to imagine it will be as dominant as the 2004 team - and the current roster just doesn't justify that argument.

What everyone forgets every year is that there are players waiting to step up. The constant yapping about not replacing the production of WMG is NOTHING compared to the yapping about losing Ted W. Don't you remember?

The only recent years that had more doom and gloom to start the season was 2003 (we lost Lawyer Milloy, the heart and soul of our defense. do you remember people predicting 0-16?), and of course starting the 2001 season, where we were supposed to finish last and the pre-season odds of our winning the SB was 200-1. Houston and SF have better odds than that this year.

Someone will step up. Players will play, some better than expected, some not as good.

There will be surprises on the rosters of EVERY team in the NFL. You simply cannot say a team won't do well based on its current roster.

But as Felger has shown, it is much more fun to poke holes in the idea that this will be a great year. But he's not a fan. Not of NEP, anyway