A Guess At Amendola's Net Cap Hit

[mgteich]

I write this because folks seems concerned about the $3.5M cap effect of signing Amendola. I think that it will be no more than half that number, chump change for this year.

He will be guaranteed ten million. My guess is that his total compensation for the first 2 years will be ten million.

A bonus of $5M, and salaries of a million and $4M give us a net cap effect this year of $2M less $500K for the player he replaces. This gives Amendola ten million over two years guaranteed and say $6m, $7M and $8M for the last 3 years.

This is simply speculation. The rumor is that the bonus is $6M, which would lead numbers similar to the above.

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

I posted my guess yesterday in the Amendola thread. http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...endola-signed-5-years-page19.html#post3397082

It looks like I got the signing bonus pretty close, but I had this year's hit at 3.2m. I have him getting more salary than you do in years 1 and 2 but less in year 3. The thing I don't love about $6 million in year 3 is that it puts the Pats in a tough spot. He is minimum 3.6m in dead money to cut after 2 years, so I would think his 2015 salary has to be a bit lower, otherwise you have a pretty crappy potential situation with an often injured player. I say, take a little of your medicine now. 3.2m this year is still 3m less than retaining Welker would have been.

 

[Sciz]

Do the Pats usually do their contracts like that? It doesn't seem like the kind of thing a team would do unless they really need to win now at the expense of winning later.

For example, the Dolphins' top 5 free agents this offseason have a total cap hit of $12.75M this year and then $43.275M next year. That doesn't seem very Belichickian.

 

[mgteich]

If you pay all the guaranteed money in the first two years, and have a signing bonus of $5M, then the dead money after 2 years is only $3M which can be spread over 2 years.

I uses $5M for simplicity. Your guess on the bonus amount is probably better.

I think the key is to pay all the guaranteed money in the first two years, and have a low first year salary. After all, Amendola will receiver his bonus money in the first year.

As is often the case, I expect the contract to act as a 2 year contract with an option.

I posted my guess yesterday in the Amendola thread. http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...endola-signed-5-years-page19.html#post3397082

It looks like I got the signing bonus pretty close, but I had this year's hit at 3.2m. I have him getting more salary than you do in years 1 and 2 but less in year 3. The thing I don't love about $6 million in year 3 is that it puts the Pats in a tough spot. He is minimum 3.6m in dead money to cut after 2 years, so I would think his 2015 salary has to be a bit lower, otherwise you have a pretty crappy potential situation with an often injured player. I say, take a little of your medicine now. 3.2m this year is still 3m less than retaining Welker would have been.

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

As is often the case, I expect the contract to act as a 2 year contract with an option.

Yup. 2/10-12, or 3/14-16, I reckon, or thereabouts.

 

[patfanken]

My original guess was $3MM cap hit. I'm rooting for your scenario. For all the mediots complaining that the Pats are paying more for Amendola than Welker, really don't have a clue...or probably do, but then their stories won't be as sensational.

I'm still curious about the so called $10MM in guaranteed money. Is it fully guaranteed or is it conditional like for skill or injury. I'm betting that at worst it will be a deal that the Pats can get out rather cheaply in 2 years, yet control the player for 5 if he works out. For example if he continues to be injury prone, I wouldn't be surprised to find out that about half that "guaranteed money" would disappear.

I'm continually amazed by how people will make immediate judgments about these contract, only to find out later how badly they've erred. Yet do it again when the next contract is signed. How many time do we have to experience this knee jerk reaction, followed by the "my bad"; before we learn this seemingly simple lesson about NFL contracts

 

[patfanken]

My original guess was a $3MM cap hit. I'm rooting for your scenario. For all the mediots complaining that the Pats are paying more for Amendola than Welker, really don't have a clue...or probably do, but then their stories won't be as sensational.

I'm still curious about the so called $10MM in guaranteed money. Is it fully guaranteed or is it conditional like for skill or injury. I'm betting that at worst it will be a deal that the Pats can get out rather cheaply in 2 years, yet control the player for 5 if he works out. For example if he continues to be injury prone, I wouldn't be surprised to find out that about half that "guaranteed money" would disappear.

I'm continually amazed by how people will make immediate judgments about these contract, only to find out later how badly they've erred. Yet do it again when the next contract is signed. How many time do we have to experience this knee jerk reaction, followed by the "my bad"; before we learn this seemingly simple lesson about NFL contracts

 

[mgteich]

It is normal in the nil for the fIrst year's compensation to be bonus plus a near minimum salary. Otherwise, the players receives too much in upfront money. If the bonus is too high for one year, it is sometimes split into two years.The result is a low first year cap and the rest of the structure can vary.

Clearly, one must plan not only this year's but also all the out years. My example give Amendola $6M of real money this year and $4M next year. After that, his salaries are likely to be $6M, $7M and $8M. Whether he ever gets this much depends of increases in the cap, the market and his play.

Do the Pats usually do their contracts like that? It doesn't seem like the kind of thing a team would do unless they really need to win now at the expense of winning later.

For example, the Dolphins' top 5 free agents this offseason have a total cap hit of $12.75M this year and then $43.275M next year. That doesn't seem very Belichickian.

 

[mgteich]

One would expect an injury provision. I hope that you are right about the guaranteed money.

My original guess was $3MM cap hit. I'm rooting for your scenario. For all the mediots complaining that the Pats are paying more for Amendola than Welker, really don't have a clue...or probably do, but then their stories won't be as sensational.

I'm still curious about the so called $10MM in guaranteed money. Is it fully guaranteed or is it conditional like for skill or injury. I'm betting that at worst it will be a deal that the Pats can get out rather cheaply in 2 years, yet control the player for 5 if he works out. For example if he continues to be injury prone, I wouldn't be surprised to find out that about half that "guaranteed money" would disappear.

I'm continually amazed by how people will make immediate judgments about these contract, only to find out later how badly they've erred. Yet do it again when the next contract is signed. How many time do we have to experience this knee jerk reaction, followed by the "my bad"; before we learn this seemingly simple lesson about NFL contracts