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I thought I'd give this one a whack. My 5:
1. Win the turnover battle. Both teams are oppotunistic. The Saints lead the NFL in turnovers with 29, the Pats are 3rd with 22. Over the past 5 games the Pats lead the NFL with 16 turnovers. The Pats are 2nd in turnover differential at +12, the Saints 4th at +10. The Saints have produced a whopping 566 yards on 20 INT returns, and have scored 7 TDs directly on turnovers (5 INTs and 2 fumbles); the Pats, only 1, but that came last week. Whichever team wins this battle will have a decided edge. On offense, the Pats need to avoid costly mistakes and big negative plays. They can't kill drives with costly turnovers, and if they do turn the ball over they have to stop the Saints from making the big gain and force the Saints offense to work for points. On defense, they have to stay aggressive and make plays; and the Pats need to turn those opportunities into points. The good news for the Pats is that the Saints offense has been prone to turnovers.
2. Control the TOP. The Pats currently rank 1st in TOP at 34:43, the Saints 7th at 32:21. The Pats need to keep the Saints offense off the field and limit their opportunities. The Saint's defense is 7th in the league in limiting 3rd down conversions, at 34.5%. The Pats offense is 6th in converting 3rd downs, at 45.7%. How the Pats do to convert on 3rd (and 4th) down and keep drives alive will be important. Being able to run the ball effectively will also be important. If the Pats outrush the Saints, I think the Pats win.
3. Red Zone Execution. This is perhaps the biggest key, on both sides of the ball. The Saints defense gives up yards and points, but makes big plays and is 5th in red zone defense. The Pat's offense ranked 25th in red zone efficiency going into the Jets game. Conversely, the Pats defense rank 2nd in PPG but 28th in red zone defense.
4. Stop the Run. The Saints have too many weapons to shut down. But they've been running for over 150 yards per game. That's too much, in addition to Drew Brees. The Pats need to slow the Saints running attack and make them beat us in the air. Then they become more one-dimensional. If the Saints can run at will, then it will be a long day for the Pats defense. The Pats slowed NY's league-leading rushing attack last week, so they can do it.
5. Play for 60 minutes. We have to avoid mental lapses. We have to avoid special teams breakdowns. And above all we have to come out on fire in the 2nd half and play our guts out on both sides of the ball. No 3rd quarter absences if we want to win this game. Like the Colts, the Saints are a team that we could easily beat for 3 quarters and lose the game.
If the Pats do win the game, I think the person who may have had the most to do with it outside of the players on the field will be Peyton Manning. Our biggest advantage over the Saints is that we've already been battle tested (and scarred) against a top offense. They've never faced an offense like ours.
1. Win the turnover battle. Both teams are oppotunistic. The Saints lead the NFL in turnovers with 29, the Pats are 3rd with 22. Over the past 5 games the Pats lead the NFL with 16 turnovers. The Pats are 2nd in turnover differential at +12, the Saints 4th at +10. The Saints have produced a whopping 566 yards on 20 INT returns, and have scored 7 TDs directly on turnovers (5 INTs and 2 fumbles); the Pats, only 1, but that came last week. Whichever team wins this battle will have a decided edge. On offense, the Pats need to avoid costly mistakes and big negative plays. They can't kill drives with costly turnovers, and if they do turn the ball over they have to stop the Saints from making the big gain and force the Saints offense to work for points. On defense, they have to stay aggressive and make plays; and the Pats need to turn those opportunities into points. The good news for the Pats is that the Saints offense has been prone to turnovers.
2. Control the TOP. The Pats currently rank 1st in TOP at 34:43, the Saints 7th at 32:21. The Pats need to keep the Saints offense off the field and limit their opportunities. The Saint's defense is 7th in the league in limiting 3rd down conversions, at 34.5%. The Pats offense is 6th in converting 3rd downs, at 45.7%. How the Pats do to convert on 3rd (and 4th) down and keep drives alive will be important. Being able to run the ball effectively will also be important. If the Pats outrush the Saints, I think the Pats win.
3. Red Zone Execution. This is perhaps the biggest key, on both sides of the ball. The Saints defense gives up yards and points, but makes big plays and is 5th in red zone defense. The Pat's offense ranked 25th in red zone efficiency going into the Jets game. Conversely, the Pats defense rank 2nd in PPG but 28th in red zone defense.
4. Stop the Run. The Saints have too many weapons to shut down. But they've been running for over 150 yards per game. That's too much, in addition to Drew Brees. The Pats need to slow the Saints running attack and make them beat us in the air. Then they become more one-dimensional. If the Saints can run at will, then it will be a long day for the Pats defense. The Pats slowed NY's league-leading rushing attack last week, so they can do it.
5. Play for 60 minutes. We have to avoid mental lapses. We have to avoid special teams breakdowns. And above all we have to come out on fire in the 2nd half and play our guts out on both sides of the ball. No 3rd quarter absences if we want to win this game. Like the Colts, the Saints are a team that we could easily beat for 3 quarters and lose the game.
If the Pats do win the game, I think the person who may have had the most to do with it outside of the players on the field will be Peyton Manning. Our biggest advantage over the Saints is that we've already been battle tested (and scarred) against a top offense. They've never faced an offense like ours.
