2026 Watch List

[mayoclinic]

Wasn't there an issue with Johnson's tackling? I recall him being on your naughty list because of that.

 

[mayoclinic]

Highlighting some of the wide discrepancy in draft rankings:

2026 NFL Draft rankings: Why our analysts disagree on Ty Simpson, Rueben Bain

CBS Sports draft analysts explain why some of their prospect rankings are wildly different.

www.cbssports.com

Goosby, Bain or McCoy in the late 1st would all be terrific.

 

[mayoclinic]

Draft thoughts and updated horizontal board from Rob Slaton at Seahawksdraftblog:

Happy New Year — here’s some thoughts on how the 2026 draft is shaping up – Seahawks Draft Blog

seahawksdraftblog.com

 

[mayoclinic]

Sam Teets big board:

2026 NFL Draft Scouting: New Year’s Day Top 300 Big Board

Let's kick off the New Year with an updated big board that surely won't upset anyone

sportstalk.substack.com

 

[mayoclinic]

Another top 300 board:

Top 300 draft picks for 2026

L.A Rams draft season is here!

www.turfshowtimes.com

 

[mayoclinic]

Trinidad Chambliss states his case, Rueben Bain Jr. dominates again: NFL Draft takeaways

Which other 2026 NFL Draft prospects stood out during the College Football Playoff quarterfinals?

www.nytimes.com

 

[mayoclinic]

2026 NFL draft: Every prospect with a first-round grade

We'll see 32 picks in Round 1, but which prospects have actually earned a first-round grade? There are currently 11 in the 2026 class. Here's the updated list.

www.espn.com

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

2026 NFL draft: Every prospect with a first-round grade

We'll see 32 picks in Round 1, but which prospects have actually earned a first-round grade? There are currently 11 in the 2026 class. Here's the updated list.

www.espn.com

It is a fun read - thank you.

"I gave only 13 first-round grades in the 2025 class, the lowest number I've ever awarded. But the 2026 class comes in below that right now."

 

[manxman2601]

"I gave only 13 first-round grades in the 2025 class, the lowest number I've ever awarded. But the 2026 class comes in below that right now."

Yup. That's the way I see it too. Role on '27. I still like this draft for depth though.

I'd quibble on a couple of names with Matt Miller. Spencer Fano and Sonny Styles are first rounders in my mind. I'm not convinced Kenyon Sadiq is. Sadiq is borderline for me - he has the upside but I'm not convinced the production matches.

 

[mayoclinic]

I would add:

14. Sonny Styles. 1st round grade all the way.
15. Jermod McCoy. 1st round 2024 tape. Medicals will be key.
16. Jordyn Tyson. 1st round tape until injured.
17. Trevor Goosby. 1st round tape over 2nd half of season.
18. Makai Lemon. Hard to argue that the tape doesn't justify a first round pick.

Vega Ioane and Mansoor Delane close.

Spencer Fanu, Caleb Lomu, Keldric Faulk, Caleb Banks all have elite traits but injuries or inconsistent tape.

Some of the best players from the 2025 draft would not have made the "1st round grade" cutoff based on Miller's strict criteria. He gave out only 12 1st round grades last year around this time:



Guys like Cam Ward (1), Armand Membou (7), Tet McMillan (8), Tyler Booker (12), Walter Nolan (16), snd Grey Zabel (17) didn't make his list.

And Will Johnson fell to #42 based on medicals.

 

[mayoclinic]

Miller's initial 1st round grades last year, from 1/1, did not include Will Campbell:

Matt Miller 1st round grades 1/1/25

My first look at the 2025 class has the lowest number of true first-round grades I've ever awarded. The final list in 2024 had 18 names on it, and the 2023 list had 20. This year, we're at ... 12. There is still time for things to change and that number to grow, but here are the players who...

cowboyszone.com

In 2024 he initially had 16 players:

Matt Miller 1st round grades 1/1/25

My first look at the 2025 class has the lowest number of true first-round grades I've ever awarded. The final list in 2024 had 18 names on it, and the 2023 list had 20. This year, we're at ... 12. There is still time for things to change and that number to grow, but here are the players who...

cowboyszone.com

I think it's fair to expect that there will be many 1st round worthy players not on his 2026 list as well.

 

[mayoclinic]

There are easily 21 players I could see being worth taking, assuming all declare:

QB(2): Fernando Mendoza, Dante Moore
RB(1): Jeremiyah Love
WR(3): Tyson Jordyn, Carnell Tate, Makai Lemon
TE(1): Kenyon Sadiq
OL(4): Trevor Goosby, Francis Mauigoa, Spencer Fano, Olaivavega Ioane
DT(1): Peter Woods
EDGE(3): David Bailey, Rueben Bain, Keldric Faulk
LB(2): Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles
S(1): Caleb Downs
CB(3): Jermod McCoy, Mansoor Delane, Aveion Terrell

It's very difficult for me to see any of these 21 falling out of the first round, barring injury, medicals, or major off-field issues.

 

[manxman2601]

There are easily 21 players I could see being worth taking, assuming all declare:

QB(2): Fernando Mendoza, Dante Moore
RB(1): Jeremiyah Love
WR(3): Tyson Jordyn, Carnell Tate, Makai Lemon
TE(1): Kenyon Sadiq
OL(4): Trevor Goosby, Francis Mauigoa, Spencer Fano, Olaivavega Ioane
DT(1): Peter Woods
EDGE(3): David Bailey, Rueben Bain, Keldric Faulk
LB(2): Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles
S(1): Caleb Downs
CB(3): Jermod McCoy, Mansoor Delane, Aveion Terrell

It's very difficult for me to see any of these 21 falling out of the first round, barring injury, medicals, or major off-field issues.

Being taken in the first round and having a first round grade are not the same thing. The general rule of thumb seems to be that a first round grade is given to someone who would go in the first round of any other average year. Personally I think that definition's a bit loose. For me, it's reserved for prospects who almost certainly would be one of the best players on your team, an impact player and someone you build your roster around. So a pass rusher who will get double digit sacks year on year, a RB who can get you 1500 combined yards per season, a receiver who will get 1000 every year and probably double digit TDs and shutdown CBs and LTs. Developmental prospects are more borderline 1st - 2nd rounders as are solid prospects who aren't guaranteed to be dominant players on the team.

So just taking some of your names that may be questionable:

1. Makai Lemon - Love him but he's undersized and not very fast. Can we be certain he can go up against the leading CBs in the NFL and win?

2. Trevor Goosby - Still developmental. I think he could carry a first round grade ideally but has he put enough evidence on tape to guarantee it. This one is more debatable.

3. Jordan Tyson - I think Matt Miller got this one wrong. Definitely worth a round one grade if healthy. Maybe Miller is counting his medical history against him.

4. Mansoor Delane - Another questionable one. I can see him being worthy of a first round grade but I can also see why someone would hold his short arms and questionable speed against him.

5. Keldric Faulk - Another one that could go either way. I think it comes down to how you see his future as a pass rusher.

 

[mayoclinic]

I understand the difference, agree it's loose.

Generally, to earn a 1st round grade from someone like Miller (which I view as relatively meaningless) a prospect has to have 1st round tape, good measurable, expect to test well, be injury free and have no major character issues. Most 1st round prospects aren't that clean. Positional value also factors in.

Regarding some of the "near misses":

- Jordyn Tyson and Jermod McCoy check every box except for injury/medical.
- Makai Lemon and Aveion Terrell check every box except for size.
- Sonny Styles and Vega Ioane check every box except for positional value.
- Mansoor Delane clearly has 1st round tape, but height, arm length, and predicted speed could be issues.
- Trevor Goosby is a late risers, but otherwise checks every box, at a position of extreme value.

Keldric Faulk and Spencer Fano more understandable because their tape is more erratic, but we''ve seen before that these kind of prospects do not last.

You could also argue that Peter Woods does not belong on the list based on his 2025 tape. Any such list is somewhat arbitrary.

Rather than some imaginary "1st round grade, I prefer to think about which players are virtual locks to go in the 1st round. Realistically, we should be thrilled if any fell to us in the late 1st.

If you look at Sam Teet's recent 2-round mock, all 21 of the players I listed went 1st round, and only 3 made it out of the top-20 (22 Lomo, 26 Sadiq, 27 Ioane):

2026 NFL Draft January two-round mock: Trades shake Round 1 for Browns, Jets and Rams

Several trades in my latest mock for the 2026 NFL Draft help the Jets, Browns, Rams, and more reload for the future

sportstalk.substack.com

The potential 1st round picks after that have a lot more potential variance, IMO.

 

[manxman2601]

Any such list is somewhat arbitrary.

Yes!

Matt Miller will have different first round grades to Sam Teets to Mel Kiper etc. More importantly, the New England Patriots will have different first round grades to the New York Jets. The draft is an entirely subjective system. Trying to find a consensus is a futile exercise that only serves to try to provide context for us amateurs but is fairly meaningless to NFL teams.

Mansoor Delane is the perfect example of this. The Pete Carroll Seahawks would absolutely not have a first round grade on him because he has sub 33" arms. Rueben Bain probably wouldn't have had a first round grade from early 2000s Bill Belichick because of his lack of length.

If Matt Miller feels that this is a poor first round draft, it's more useful to understand why he thinks that than to merely reject the notion. After all, he's not the only one. See my fellow Brit Rob Staton.

 

[manxman2601]

The draft is an entirely subjective system.

This was a point I was making in last years BPA debates. There is no such thing as a consensus BPA, only a subjective one individual to pundits, watchers and most importantly teams.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

This was a point I was making in last years BPA debates. There is no such thing as a consensus BPA, only a subjective one individual to pundits, watchers and most importantly teams.

The BPA discussion is complex, as is the draft. That is what makes it fun if people don't take opinions personally.

 

[mayoclinic]

It's all subjective.

We don't really know how good a draft is for about 3 years, and there are always values to be found in every draft. That's the fun of it.

This draft looks thin at the top, strong day 2, and about 150 deep. Not a "bad" draft class IMO, and a great one fpr a young playoff team with a franchise QB looking to add depth and strengthen the overall roster ... cough, cough.

The trick, as always, is finding the values. Who is the next Trey Hendrickson, Maxx Crosby, Quin Meinerz, George Kittle, etc.

 

[BobDigital]

Not much of a watch list right now... but my sleepers are Mesi who i think is still massively undervalued and Eli Rairdon who also is massively undervalued IMO... Clev Lubin would have been included too but he is going back to school : (

 

[mayoclinic]

2 good ones, though both have been mocked in the 2nd round recently.