So one more write up on the fast riser KC Concepcion. I will admit while i try to not let anything influence my opinion, for this one player I looked over this thread to see what other thought or for anything else i could find (and not just advanced stats like i have before). So for the first time this year, this will be an opinion where i read other outside ones a fair amount here. I feel it is fair to disclose that.
So anyway, Concepcion is a hell of an interesting player. He is, dare i say it? Scrappy. At 5'11 and 190 he plays with a hell of an edge. I'd be curious to know how much more he would play with if he kept his speed/quickness with 10 more lbs. And i think that is fair, for both good and bad.
Percy Harvin had injuries issues much of his career. He never passed 1,000 yards receiving yards (though he got 1300 YFS once... his only total 1,000 yard year) , but when healthy was dynamic in what he could create. I see Concepcion as a very similar animal. He likes to play with an edge and get every yard he can. That is admirable and an important part of his game. But in this case... you are 190 lbs my dude. Sometimes discretion is the better part of valor. But i don't think he will see it that way. The dog is too much in him I think.
I will predict Concepcion will more or less have a very Successful rookie contract as he looks NFL ready. Outside of that though? I don't think he will have a long career in this league playing the way he plays. Hopefully I'm wrong, but it be good for anyone drafting to have the possibility in mind this player has long term elevated risk.
I also think while he is quick, his speed is questionable at the NFL level. He burst away from guys with some moves and quickness on occasion, but rarely extends that distance once at top speed. I see some CBs at the NFL level catching up if he does get behind him, which limits some big play potential. I also hear his hands were maybe questionable before this year? It seems good now, but I'd like a longer sample size. That being said I looked up his drop rates for 23 and 24... they weren't that bad. So I don't know if his hands are even an issue.
All this is to say, I like him as a player. I think he is a good option. But he is not a #1 in my mind. He is capped at a #2, a fairly dynamic #2. And i think there is some added risk in here people are not considering which maybe they should if they are hoping for a 10 year player. IF you are only focused on the rookie deal... I still have some concerns he might take a beating at the NFL level and even if not injured, will it slow him down a hair? For players who live on quickness, being slowed down even just a little can be a killer. Also i don't think he will be getting away from as many tackles as easily once guys get a hold of him in the NFL or will be able to power forward for those extra yards. So i see him not being quite the YAC monster he has been this year in college.
I like the player. His quickness is close to elite... maybe arguably elite. His shake and bake is high tier off the line. He will fight for every inch is plays without fear for good and bad. His top speed is okay. Passable, but you may not have a huge window. He has shown good instincts on zone and knows how to fight back for a football. He is just as good a football player as an athlete, which you love to see. But i do think there are a few concerns of i believe the lack of ability to be a #1 (in my own personal opinion) limits his draft value. His floor is pretty damn good though. Plus his return ability is a nice bonus.
I have him as a top 64 player. For all the concerns mentioned, but if you are a team looking for a play maker shot in the arm NOW, he has higher value. Then I could see as a top 48 grade. If you are looking on a longer time line and are hoping to get players with more upside in the top half of 2nd, you probably pass till later in that round. At least that is my take.
