2025 Draft: TEs

[manxman2601]

Mike Vrabel:

“Receivers that have great catch radius, that can create separation, that are good against contested catches,” Vrabel said on WEEI earlier this week. “Because when you’re contested and PBUs go up in the air, then they get intercepted, right? And then that now that leads to turnovers, which then changes field position and all these things.”

Is It Harold Fannin Jnr?



Might only be a situational player and future replacement for Henry but if we can scheme him the ball, he's special.

 

[bakes781]

Not sure why his stock has dropped so hard but I would think we would be doing Drake a disservice if we didn't bring in his security blanket Bryson Nesbit.

 

[Wilfork#75]

I am firmly in the never draft a 1st round TE camp. Over the past 2 decades I think it has been the worst return for any position drafted in the first round. It’s the slowest position to develop, you get the least return from the rookie contact and most of the first rounders that have gone on to have decent careers have done so during their second contract or later. Over the past decade the only 1st round TE that signed an extension with the team that drafted them was David Njoku. A first round pick on a TE just isn’t a good investment.

Brock Bowers just had maybe the best rookie TE season ever, or at least since Mike Ditka. But he is the extreme outlier. It was also arguably the best season for a 1st round TE this century. Only two other 1st round TE’s drafted in the past 20 years have eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards in a season. Kyle Pitts as a rookie put up 1,012 yards (with only 1 TD), but has been a huge disappointment since then. Greg Olsen had three 1,000 yard seasons but they were in his 8th/9th and 10th seasons with his 2nd team. On his rookie contract he topped out at 612 yards.

How many of these guys actually lived up to their draft position?

Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders- No. 13 overall, 2024- Absolute stud

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons- No. 4 overall, 2021- Good rookie season, huge disappointment since

T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions- No. 8, 2019- Never lived up to the number 8 pick. Was better in Minnesota than Detroit.

Noah Fant, Denver Broncos-No. 20, 2019- Career highs of 673 yards and 4 TD’s. Not worthy of a 1st round pick

Hayden Hurst, Baltimore Ravens- No. 25, 2018- Bust

O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers- No. 19, 2017- Bust

Evan Engram, New York Giants- No. 23, 2017- Showed potential but never lived up to the hype

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns-No. 29, 2017- Developing into a solid player later in his career. Not worth a 1st round pick

Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions- No. 10, 2014- Never lived up to the hype

Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals- No. 21, 2013- 8 year career, only 1 good season

Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati Bengals- No. 21, 2010- Steady, definitely not worthy of a 1st rounder

Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions- No. 20, 2009- Good blocker, had a couple of solid seasons. Not worth a 1st round pick though

Dustin Keller, New York Jets-No. 30, 2008- Showed a ton of potential, injuries derailed career.

Greg Olsen, Chicago Bears-No. 31, 2007- Solid on rookie contract, became a great player once he moved to Carolina

Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers- No. 6, 2006- Struggled early, many labelled him a bust after his first 3 seasons. Put together a solid career for seasons 4-8.

Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars- No. 28, 2006- Played 19 seasons, only once eclipsed 550 receiving yards

Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers- No. 30, 2005- Really good career, never elite production


It’s entirely possible that Brock Bowers is the only player on this list that truly ends up deserving his draft position for his rookie contract. Obviously Greg Olsen became a great TE, but he didn’t become elite until later in his career.

It’s no surprise Detroit shows up on this list 3 times, drafting a 1st round TE is just bad business. Draft guys in rounds 2-5 and give them time to develop. Or target guys that have been in the league for a couple of years that haven’t broken out yet. I would look at someone like Michael Mayer from the Raiders who is behind Bowers on the depth chart and already had a couple of seasons to acclimate to the NFL.

 

[AQPE]

I am firmly in the never draft a 1st round TE camp. Over the past 2 decades I think it has been the worst return for any position drafted in the first round. It’s the slowest position to develop, you get the least return from the rookie contact and most of the first rounders that have gone on to have decent careers have done so during their second contract or later. Over the past decade the only 1st round TE that signed an extension with the team that drafted them was David Njoku. A first round pick on a TE just isn’t a good investment.

Brock Bowers just had maybe the best rookie TE season ever, or at least since Mike Ditka. But he is the extreme outlier. It was also arguably the best season for a 1st round TE this century. Only two other 1st round TE’s drafted in the past 20 years have eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards in a season. Kyle Pitts as a rookie put up 1,012 yards (with only 1 TD), but has been a huge disappointment since then. Greg Olsen had three 1,000 yard seasons but they were in his 8th/9th and 10th seasons with his 2nd team. On his rookie contract he topped out at 612 yards.

How many of these guys actually lived up to their draft position?

Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders- No. 13 overall, 2024- Absolute stud

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons- No. 4 overall, 2021- Good rookie season, huge disappointment since

T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions- No. 8, 2019- Never lived up to the number 8 pick. Was better in Minnesota than Detroit.

Noah Fant, Denver Broncos-No. 20, 2019- Career highs of 673 yards and 4 TD’s. Not worthy of a 1st round pick

Hayden Hurst, Baltimore Ravens- No. 25, 2018- Bust

O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers- No. 19, 2017- Bust

Evan Engram, New York Giants- No. 23, 2017- Showed potential but never lived up to the hype

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns-No. 29, 2017- Developing into a solid player later in his career. Not worth a 1st round pick

Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions- No. 10, 2014- Never lived up to the hype

Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals- No. 21, 2013- 8 year career, only 1 good season

Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati Bengals- No. 21, 2010- Steady, definitely not worthy of a 1st rounder

Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions- No. 20, 2009- Good blocker, had a couple of solid seasons. Not worth a 1st round pick though

Dustin Keller, New York Jets-No. 30, 2008- Showed a ton of potential, injuries derailed career.

Greg Olsen, Chicago Bears-No. 31, 2007- Solid on rookie contract, became a great player once he moved to Carolina

Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers- No. 6, 2006- Struggled early, many labelled him a bust after his first 3 seasons. Put together a solid career for seasons 4-8.

Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars- No. 28, 2006- Played 19 seasons, only once eclipsed 550 receiving yards

Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers- No. 30, 2005- Really good career, never elite production


It’s entirely possible that Brock Bowers is the only player on this list that truly ends up deserving his draft position for his rookie contract. Obviously Greg Olsen became a great TE, but he didn’t become elite until later in his career.

It’s no surprise Detroit shows up on this list 3 times, drafting a 1st round TE is just bad business. Draft guys in rounds 2-5 and give them time to develop. Or target guys that have been in the league for a couple of years that haven’t broken out yet. I would look at someone like Michael Mayer from the Raiders who is behind Bowers on the depth chart and already had a couple of seasons to acclimate to the NFL.

Great great post, I bow my head in respect to how well you presented your position!

 

[patrickscribe]

Mike Vrabel:



Is It Harold Fannin Jnr?



Might only be a situational player and future replacement for Henry but if we can scheme him the ball, he's special.

Bowling Green doesn't play the toughest schedule, but he had 137 yds vs Penn State and 145 vs Texas A&M.

That Penn State game was a TE battle - Fanin with 11 catches for 137 and Ty Warren with 8 for 146.

 

[manxman2601]

Bowling Green doesn't play the toughest schedule, but he had 137 yds vs Penn State and 145 vs Texas A&M.

That Penn State game was a TE battle - Fanin with 11 catches for 137 and Ty Warren with 8 for 146.

Good point. Fannin is legit but what his role will be in the NFL is questionable. He's effectively a bigger slower WR, who admittedly, has great hands.

 

[EddardSnow67]

Wait til the 4th-5th round and snag Mitchell Evans from Notre Dame. Solid blocker, big body, good hands and catch radius, can break tackles, 6'5" with good ball skills. He's not super dynamic in the passing game but he's got a pretty solid floor and moderate upside.

 

[Steve102]

Great great post, I bow my head in respect to how well you presented your position!

Likewise. Great post. @Wilfork#75 I salute you.

 

[PatsFan2]

Mike Vrabel:



Is It Harold Fannin Jnr?



Might only be a situational player and future replacement for Henry but if we can scheme him the ball, he's special.

Sign me up Faster version of the criminal Josh should like him.

 

[PatsFan2]

Wait til the 4th-5th round and snag Mitchell Evans from Notre Dame. Solid blocker, big body, good hands and catch radius, can break tackles, 6'5" with good ball skills. He's not super dynamic in the passing game but he's got a pretty solid floor and moderate upside.

Nice find he played really good at seasons end.

 

[manxman2601]

Wait til the 4th-5th round and snag Mitchell Evans from Notre Dame. Solid blocker, big body, good hands and catch radius, can break tackles, 6'5" with good ball skills. He's not super dynamic in the passing game but he's got a pretty solid floor and moderate upside.

A good TE2/ TE3.

 

[manxman2601]

Over 1/3 of Elijah Arroyo's receptions this past season went for 20+ yards.

 

[bakes781]

Over 1/3 of Elijah Arroyo's receptions this past season went for 20+ yards.

More Arroyo

 

[manxman2601]

So here's why Arroyo could replay work in a McDaniels offense. @Sciz noted in the thread on the board about fullbacks (I hope he doesn't mind me quoting him):

It’s about personnel games. McDaniels wants to put heavy personnel on the field to see how the defense matches, and then he wants to line that heavy personnel up in unique alignments to see how the defense lines up. If that means the big run-stuffing LB or an edge rusher out wide on your fullback, then that might be the matchup to target. If you put an offensive lineman out wide, then that’s not a valid receiving option on the play if there’s a defensive player anywhere in the remote vicinity.

Because Arroyo is such a receiving threat, a defensive co-ordinator has to put a safety on him as most linebackers strong safeties won't be able to cover him. So line Arroyo out wide and if the defense has a CB/safety on him then there's likely going to be a lighter box for Rhamondre to run against. Motion Arroyo back onto the OL and you have an extra blocker up against a lighter box. And of course the same works in reverse. Use Arroyo inline (with Austin Hooper too) and the defensive coordinator has to either respect the run with an extra linebacker or DL in which case you have an ideal passing opportunity or if the DC goes light to cover the threat from Arroyo you can run the ball down their throats.

I realise this isn't rocket science, it's what most OCs want to do but it only works if you have a genuine receiving threat at TE/HB, one that requires the attention of a defensive back rather than a run orientated strong safety or linebacker..

The only caveat I would add is that Arroyo isn't a massive threat as a blocker but should be fine against safeties and linebackers but this strategy would probably need Hooper too to really dominate the box.

 

[bakes781]

TE would be a nice to have IMO but if the talent is there to be had I'm all for it. Just not going out of my way to get one.

 

[manxman2601]

TE would be a nice to have IMO but if the talent is there to be had I'm all for it. Just not going out of my way to get one.

I'm the same and I'm certainly not 100% there on Arroyo but mismatches are certainly a good thing to draft.

 

[DaBruinz]

With 4 picks in the top 3 rounds, the Pats could afford to use a pick on a TE. Particularly if they can't bring Hooper back or they prioritize the 2TE set as their main formation going forward. Having 4 TEs on the Roster wouldn't be a bad thing. Henry, Hooper, Bell, and Draft pick..Be it Arroya, or Evans later in the draft or Nesbit as a Priority UDFA

 

[WaterfallJumper]

With 4 picks in the top 3 rounds, the Pats could afford to use a pick on a TE. Particularly if they can't bring Hooper back or they prioritize the 2TE set as their main formation going forward. Having 4 TEs on the Roster wouldn't be a bad thing. Henry, Hooper, Bell, and Draft pick..Be it Arroya, or Evans later in the draft or Nesbit as a Priority UDFA

I've got my eye on Taylor in that range.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

More Arroyo

Too many wasted steps, but he's really good at shaking safeties. Excellent routes for a TE. I wonder how he'd do against someone like Gonz0? I ask because he'd make an intriguing X receiver if he runs well enough at the combine. Intriguing player.

 

[manxman2601]

Jackson Hawes, Georgia Tech is the best blocking TE in this draft. Not particularly athletic in comparison to the others in this class but he's a beat inline or in a split fullback role who can filter out late to pick up a first down or be a threat in the end zone.







Met with the Patriots at the Senior Bowl