Defensively I think we are a lot less sure of the Pats needs going into the 2012 draft. There are still a lot of questions that need to be answered about not only individual players (Haynesworth), but the type of defensive scheme the Pats will run. Will they stay with a disciplined, controlling two gap 3-4 defence, or will they go for an aggressive penetrating 4-3. I think they will continue to run a hybrid defence that will open up the types of defenders that they may be looking for, and make guys that they previously wouldn’t have considered, genuine options.
Right now the obvious need on defence is Safety. In terms of safeties, it seems like a solid class, but I don't see anyone worth a first round grade at the moment. The two guys I like the most are TJ McDonald from USC and Mark Barron from Alabama. I think McDonald is the best all-around FS in this class and is skilled in so many areas. Unlike most of the FS prospects in this draft he is a very good wrap up tackler, but he also has the size and strength to put on a hit. He's very good in man coverage against TE's but can struggle a little against smaller, quicker WR's. He's got great athleticism, solid speed, good ball skills and plays the run and the pass very well. He did look silly at times last year against Oregon, but for a safety against that offence I think it is understandable.
Barron is the top SS in this draft and is a great leader and tackler. He's not afraid to put on a big hit and makes WR's think twice about going over the middle. He is the most physical DB in college football and demands respect from the opposition. He is solid in coverage but can be caught out at times. I think the only thing stopping him from being an elite SS prospect is his speed. I think it’s adequate on film, but I don't think it will test well. I think he will have a great season, but his stock will fall in the lead up to the draft as people question his athleticism. I wouldn't be worried though, if he goes any later than round 2 I think he will be a steal.
Out of the other safeties I really like Kenny Tate, but he will be hard to evaluate this year because he will be playing LB. Maybe that will help the Pats because it could easily drop him into the 3rd round range. I'm trying to like Robert Lester, but his refusal to tackle really turns me off. If he can learn some tackling technique he could become the standout #1 FS in this draft. Some other interesting guys are Ray Ray Armstrong from Miami, Eddie Whitley from V-Tech and Markelle Martin from Okla State. This is a position I see a lot of movement in throughout the year with guys moving all around the board.
By far the deepest defensive position in this draft is CB. It may not seem like a huge need with McCourty, Bodden and Dowling, but I won’t count it out as a position the Pats take early simply because it is so deep the value available could be too good to pass up. There could be as many as 8 CB’s with a 1st round grade in the 2012 draft, and the only thing that separates most of them is personal opinion.
The current top CB prospects are:
Dre Kirkpatrick- Alabama
Stephon Gilmore- South Carolina
Alfonzo Denard- Nebraska
Jayron Hosley- Virginia Tech
Cliff Harris- Oregon
Chase Minnifield- Virginia
Morris Claiborne- LSU
Janoris Jenkins- North Alabama
A lot of these guys are underclassmen so they may not declare, but if they do this could be one of the best CB classes in a long time. Out of these guys I really like the look of Morris Clairborne from LSU and Chase Minnifield from Virginia.
DE looks like it could potentially be another need for the Pats, and it looks like a solid class for pass rushers. Quinton Coples form UNC looks like the standout DE in this draft, and is likely a top 5-10 pick. His teammate Donte Paige-Moss looks like another top pass rusher who could be a top 15 pick and has the versatility to play DE and OLB in a 3-4. The other top 3-4 OLB prospect is Brandon Jenkins from Florida State. He had a monster year last year and if he can repeat that he will be a definite top 20 pick. I really like this guy but he will likely be a bit out of range for the Pats.
One guy that I know a lot of people on here are really high on is Vinny Curry from Marshall. He is an explosive and dominant pass rusher that can play OLB in a 3-4 or bulk up and play end in a 4-3. I like him but he is a bit one dimensional for me to take so high. He is a likely 1st rounder so I don’t think I would be comfortable using such a high pick on a pure pass rusher, even though he is an extremely talented one.
The guy I like the most is Ochmed’s guy Devin Taylor. He is long, lean and athletic at 6’7” 250lbs, but he would need to bulk up a little to play in the NFL, especially at DE. He is a talented pass rusher, but doesn’t quite have the pedigree as the guys above, but what he does offer is versatility. With some bulk I have no doubt he could play the run well as either a DE or OLB. But the thing that impressed me the most watching him was his ability to play both as a down lineman and on his feet, and to be able to drop into coverage from both positions. He is highly athletic and moves well enough in space to be really solid in shallow coverage for a big guy. I don’t think he is going to be a 15 sack DE or OLB, but I think he is going to be a star as an all-around quality football player. He’s currently a late 1st round prospect, but with a big year I can easily see him going top 10.
(On a side not, this South Carolina team is going to be a lot of fun to watch this year. A D-Line with Taylor, Melvin Ingram and Javedeon Clowney with Stephon Gilmore in coverage. And add to that Alshon Jeffery and Marcus Lattimore on offence they are going to be exciting. If Stephen Garcia can keep it together on and off the field I think they are a genuine contender.)
There are also some solid 2nd tier DE’s who could be good value in the 2nd/3rd round range. Jake Bequette from Arkansas, Branson Lindsay from Pitt, Ingram from South Carolina and Allan Branch from Clemson are all really solid guys that could step up in 2011. Two dark horse DE’s who could really rise in 2011 are Nick Perry from USC who was really disappointing in 2010 but should rebound, and Jonathan Massaquoi from Troy. He is a quick and explosive pass rusher who many are predicting to explode up draft boards in 2011, possibly into the first round. If not he could be top 10 in 2013.
The DT class in 2011 looks a little weak, especially compared to 2010. The top 2 guys are Jerel Worthy from Michigan State and Jared Crick from Nebraska. Worthy is strictly a 4-3 UT who could be an option if the Pats do go for an attacking 4-3 look. Crick offers the versatility to play 4-3 DT and 3-4 DE at a high level. Both guys should be solid 1st rounders.
My prediction for the Da’Quan Bowers award for stepping up as a Junior goes to Marcus Forston from Miami. Like Bowers, Forston was highly regarded coming out of high school and hasn’t quite put it together yet. He is an explosive athlete that can get after the passer but really struggles against the run. I think this is the year he puts it all together and has a MONSTER season. I don’t think he is as good as Nick Fairley, but I think he can be a similar type of pass rusher inside. He has had some health issues, that are hopefully behind him and I think he is going to be a hot name come draft day. At the moment he probably isn’t an option for the Pats because he is weak against the run, but if he can improve there he will be a likely top 15 pick. I also have to say like Bowers, what I’ve seen of Forston he seems like a really good kid and a good leader (despite the whole Miami situation).
In terms of 3-4 DE’s the top guy to me is Kheeston Randall from Texas. I think he is the prototype two-gap 3-4 DE, and would be a great addition to the Pats, whatever defensive front they run. He isn’t a great pass rusher but he is a monster against the run and can consistently hold up against double teams. He is the best run stuffing DT in this class and I actually mocked him to the Pats last September, so I wouldn’t be too upset if we took him.
My dark horse DT that I think will move up the boards is Dontari Poe from Memphis. He is a monster NT at 6’5” 350lbs, and I can see him having a similar rise to Phil Taylor and Kenrick Ellis this year. NT’s are valuable and this guy could be the best available. Some other interesting NT’s to watch are Alameda Ta’amu from Washinton and Josh Chapman and Kerry Murphy from Alabama. Ta’amu is another monster of a man that could go very high on draft day.
LB seems like a position of decent quality this year. Vontaze Burfict from Arizona State and Luke Kuechly look like solid 1st rounders. With Manti Te’o and Don’t’a Hightower also a good chance of going high in the draft. 4-3 OLB also looks decent with guys like Zach Brown from UNC, Keenan Robinson from Texas, Shawn Spence from Miami and Lavonte David all good possibilities to go in the top 75 picks. My favourite LB in this draft is Travis Lewis, who has incredible potential, but injury has really slowed him down recently. With the combination of injury and lack of demand for 4-3 OLB’s, I think Lewis could be a steal in the late 2nd/3rd round. One concern with Lewis however is there are reports that he has a bad attitude, and I don’t think that would fly in NE.
