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* 2012 Draft Running Backs *

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My Short List

Running Backs are an interesting lot.

Like Split Ends ~ Wide Outs, Flankers, Wide Receivers ~ they are generally give far more credit for what shows up on ESPN than they deserve...and far LESS credit for doing the little things that Move The Chains and win BALL GAMES.

Barry Sanders is considered a GOD, by many...

And yet Franco Harris and Rocky Bleier, John Riggins, Emmett Smith, and their like...are generally considered to be "Role Players" who were at the right place at the right time.

And that's just DOG ****.

Championships are won by teams that Move The Chains and play Tenacious D.

That's been true for 90 years ~ with a few random exceptions ~ and it's still true.

Let me be clear, though...

I consider an O Back's importance to be DWARFED by that of the O Line that Blocks for'm, in any team's Destiny.

And when I speak of Destiny, I don't speak of Yards.

I speak of Moving The Chains.

I speak of Wins...and Championships.

When I look to an O Back for Prowess, I look to Diagnostic Acuity and Processing Speed as the play develops...

I look for a guy who Navigates the Field like a Cavalry General...and who Rapidly Reads + Reacts!!

And I look to Burst, Fluidity, Verticity, and Torsion!!

***

Trent Richardson ~ 5.9/228 ~ 1st ~ 1st



Super Beast!!

Even last year, when Mark Ingram was, far and away, the consensus first Tail Back expected to be drafted, those who who knew what was really going on said he wasn't even the best Tail Back on the team.

Trent Richardson is, indeed, The Complete Package.

***

Between the Tackles, he is a devastating, demolishing, WRECKING Ball.

Outside the Tackles, he is an elusive, explosive BEAST.

He is a savage, vicious, MAULING Blocker.

And he is a deadly threat as a Receiver.

I simply don't know who I can compare him to.

I only know that he is destined for Greatness.

Super Beast.

Super Steal.

Name Your Price.


Doug Martin ~ 5.9/224 ~ 2nd ~ 1st



Beast!! Doug Martin commands an intoxicating fusion of Core Strength, Explosiveness, and Agility.

He can absolutely blast it between the Tackles, and he can also be extremely effective OutSide.

Most importantly of all, he's got the Core Strength, the Core Flexibility, the Fluidity, and the Lateral Agility to consistently be a threat, on any given play, to go through you or around you.

He's a solid Receiver.

And he's a solid Blocker.

In short, Doug Martin commands everything needed to become an outstanding Lead Back. Steal!!

Cyrus Gray ~ 5.10/207 ~ 3rd-4th ~ 1st



Beast!! Cyrus Gray brings excellent Core Strength to the table, and employs exceptional Lateral Agility and Fluidity, sharp Verticity, and explosive Torsion to consistently hit the holes that are there, and to create, when they aren't.

He commands outstanding Diagnostic Acuity and Processing Speed, and the Patience to work with his Linemen and wait for the Blocks to develop.

He's one of the very best Navigators in this Class.

He's a ferocious, motivated Blocker, and a good one.

And he's an emerging Receiving threat.

His best attribute is his attitude, however, as all agree his is an awesome, team-first team mate with a tremendous Work Ethic...

And yet his Market Value is floating somewhere around the 3rd or 4th Round!! Super Sleeper!!

Michael Smith ~ 5.8/207 ~ UFA ~ 4th-5th



There's not much to go on with Michael Smith, mind you: He was Robert Turbin's understudy at Utah State, and all I've got to work with is the Senior Bowl, the Potato Bowl, and Wes Bunting's Scouting Report at National FootBall Post.

But, my GOD...

Outstanding Lateral Agility.

Extraordinary Fluidity.

Phenomenally explosive Burst out'f's Breaks.

I have no idea if he can Block, but his astonishing numbers at his Pro Day ~ including a 40 inch Vertical!!! ~ leave no question that he commands the Core Strength and Core Power to PANCAKE.

And he is a proven threat in the Passing Game.

Wouldn't it be remarkable if the two best O Backs in this entire Draft Class ended up being the first guy taken...and the last??

Notes

1 ~ I heavily favor Flex Backs ~ Runners like Shane Vereen who offer explosive Impact in both the Running and the Receiving Games. Indeed, if we were to forge a Depth Chart comprised exclusively of Flex Backs, I'd be perfectly happy. With apologies to his fans, but I was ECSTATIC when BenJarvus Green departed, and I PRAY we make no attempt to replace him. Stevan Ridley's Receiving Prowess is greatly in question, and that's bad enough: The idea of marching out an O Back whose limitations telegraph exactly what we're going to do on a given play horrifies me, because it abdicates the tactical initiative to the Defense.

2 ~ As with QuarterBacks and Wide Outs, I usually favor shopping for O Backs later in the Draft, but less so: I was PRAYING for Shane Vereen at the end of the Second Round, last year, and am still THRILLED that we got'm: I believe time will show him to be the very best O Back in that entire Draft Class.

3 ~ I honestly don't remember an O Back that I ever liked, coming out of College, as much as Trent Richardson: Not Peterson, not Ricky Williams or Edgerrin James, not Tomlinson or Jackson...Honestly, I believe he has a shot at being the best since The Man, Himself: Jimmy Brown.

Which is not to say that I would want US to draft him!!

4 ~ Cyrus Gray is my man, this year. I would LOVE to grab him.

5 ~ And I am a MAJOR Michael Smith fan.
 
I'll take running back Cyrus Gray in the fourth round, if available. The bonus with Cyrus Gray is that he returns kickoffs which would be an upgrade to Danny Woodhead, who incidentally will be an unrestricted free agent in 2013.
 
I would be pissed-off enough if one of our precious 1st-4th round picks is used on a RB;
I would be highly pissed-off beyond belief if one of our top-48 picks was used on a RB.

late 3rd and 4th round picks are qualitatively of different value than 1st or 2nd rounders. Here is one study of "successful" 3rd and 4th rounders from 2011:

NFL Draft: Analyzing the Success Rate of Mid-Round Picks - NFL Spin Zone - A General NFL Blog providing you all the NFL News, Rumors, Updates, and National Football League News.

"Now that I have listed all of the draft picks that I think have been successful, we can look at some numbers. To begin, there were 165 3rd round picks between 2002 and 2006. Out of those picks, 76 were deemed to be successful based on the formula above (4 seasons in the NFL, 1 starting or significant contributions). That means that about 46% of the 3rd round picks in that five year period were considered to be successful.

Looking at the 4th round, there were 176 total draft choices in the five year span we’re talking about. Out of those 176, 77 were thought to be successful, which gives us a rate of about 44% of 4th rounders being successful..."

Using his success criteria, Ellis Hobbs, Nick Kaczur and James Sanders all counted as "successes" so his success critieria is a starter who is vaguely competent but definately worth upgrading. Using the same criteria Stevan Ridley most likely would have counted as a "success" this past season.

If we tighten criteria to be players who play out their rookie contract and then get a multi-year contract whose average annual value was equal to or greater than the first round RFA tender --- the success rate goes down dramatically. A Success in these rounds is a solid JAG. Anything over and above JAG is worth a bonus to the scout/position coach.

If the Patriots draft another Ellis Hobbs or Nick Kaczur --- you would be screaming bloody murder and give a list of 10 guys that you, Captain Hindsight claim they should have drafted including three UDFAs instead of accepting that there is high variance in the scouting/evaluation/development process and as the draft moves down the board, there are not too many Pro-Bowlers or even big 2nd contract guys to be taken.
 
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