2009 Draft Choices TWO years later

[mgteich]

Going into the 2011 season our draft picks should be major contributers and leaders of the team. They will have TWO and THREE years left on their rookie contracts.

My belief is that a first rounder (other than top 10) should be a leader after two years. Hopefully, a top 10 picks should be a starter and major contributer after one year. I also expect 2nd rounders and 3rd rounders to be major contributers in their third year.

The tendency of posters is to want to use the seven picks we have in top 120 and look to their 2009 contributions, trying to patch the perceived needs in the team.
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[Box_O_Rocks]

2011 projection:

QB - Should be solid at starter with the usual turnover at 2 & 3.

RB - Rookie starters are not unusual for RB, there has been a regular pool of veteran talent cycling through. Not an area of concern.

WR - The rule of thumb is they start to hit their potential in their third year. A serious consideration.

TE - Graham, Watkins, Thomas all saw playing time as rookies. A starter can be drafted this year or next, no urgency.

OL - Four of the NE starters and one of the reserves were used as starters in their rookie seasons. No urgency.

DL - Top contributors are better for having a year in the system, if 2011 is your lookout then you can draft this year or next, however; Seymour, Wilfork, and Green are all UFA in 2010, Smith is RFA in an uncapped year - it may be necessary to target a DE in this draft, though there will be two Franchise Tags available in an uncapped 2010.

LB - Mayo is still onboard in 2011. At the moment, no other LB can be expected to be there - looks like a substantial hole in the defense given the standard transition time using the careers of Bruschi, Vrabel, Adalius, TBC, and Woods as benchmarks.

CB - Wheatley and Wilhite will be in their final seasons, though CBA rules may impact that. We've seen Gay, Hobbs, and Wheatley develop in the system and begin starting about eight games in. Asante had a season+ as a Nickelback before being thrust into a starting role. Wilhite had most of a season as Nickelback before taking over as a starter. BB has successfully (more or less from a fan perspective) used veteran stopgaps to buy time for his rookies to develop. No hurry to draft a 2011 starter.

S - Sanders and Meriweather both had time to develop behind veterans, Eugene Wilson was thrown into the fire as a rookie alongside a veteran and behind two veteran CBs. This is looking like a position that needs at least one year of development, preferably two...but it does not require a first round pick as Geno and James demonstrate...it can also be filled by veteran CBs as well as Ss.

ST - Punters seem to require extended development time if recent seasons and Practice Squad assignments are to be trusted, but BB seems capable of staying ahead of that by using the Practice Squad and a variety of veteran and Free Agent Punters.

- PK is likely set, but if necessary, Gostkowski is not the only rookie who has filled in around the league.

- LS will probably get sorted out before 2011.

Based on this, LB and S would seem to be the most critical needs for starters in 2011, with LB the higher priority.

 

[mgteich]

Agreeing with you concern regarding DE, I would add that position to LB and S. As you know, I disagree with regard to the OL, but I do strongly agree with the need for a DE.

2011 projection:

QB - Should be solid at starter with the usual turnover at 2 & 3.

RB - Rookie starters are not unusual for RB, there has been a regular pool of veteran talent cycling through. Not an area of concern.

WR - The rule of thumb is they start to hit their potential in their third year. A serious consideration.

TE - Graham, Watkins, Thomas all saw playing time as rookies. A starter can be drafted this year or next, no urgency.

OL - Four of the NE starters and one of the reserves were used as starters in their rookie seasons. No urgency.

DL - Top contributors are better for having a year in the system, if 2011 is your lookout then you can draft this year or next, however; Seymour, Wilfork, and Green are all UFA in 2010, Smith is RFA in an uncapped year - it may be necessary to target a DE in this draft, though there will be two Franchise Tags available in an uncapped 2010.

LB - Mayo is still onboard in 2011. At the moment, no other LB can be expected to be there - looks like a substantial hole in the defense given the standard transition time using the careers of Bruschi, Vrabel, Adalius, TBC, and Woods as benchmarks.

CB - Wheatley and Wilhite will be in their final seasons, though CBA rules may impact that. We've seen Gay, Hobbs, and Wheatley develop in the system and begin starting about eight games in. Asante had a season+ as a Nickelback before being thrust into a starting role. Wilhite had most of a season as Nickelback before taking over as a starter. BB has successfully (more or less from a fan perspective) used veteran stopgaps to buy time for his rookies to develop. No hurry to draft a 2011 starter.

S - Sanders and Meriweather both had time to develop behind veterans, Eugene Wilson was thrown into the fire as a rookie alongside a veteran and behind two veteran CBs. This is looking like a position that needs at least one year of development, preferably two...but it does not require a first round pick as Geno and James demonstrate...it can also be filled by veteran CBs as well as Ss.

ST - Punters seem to require extended development time if recent seasons and Practice Squad assignments are to be trusted, but BB seems capable of staying ahead of that by using the Practice Squad and a variety of veteran and Free Agent Punters.

- PK is likely set, but if necessary, Gostkowski is not the only rookie who has filled in around the league.

- LS will probably get sorted out before 2011.

Based on this, LB and S would seem to be the most critical needs for starters in 2011, with LB the higher priority.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Agreeing with you concern regarding DE, I would add that position to LB and S. As you know, I disagree with regard to the OL, but I do strongly agree with the need for a DE.

Well then, I'd still rate DE as the third priority behind LB and S for 2011. 2010 is still looking like a stronger draft class for 3-4 DEs, this class has one DE I really like Day One, with one more possible - after that you're hoping one of the late round kids can match Mike Wright and LeKevin. I expect Titus Adams to show progress this preseason and help with depth. Kenny Smith is still in the area, he was at an event with Morris and Gostkowski, he was looking greatly improved before he got injured and I won't be surprised to see him back in camp battling for a spot.

 

[mayoclinic]

Well then, I'd still rate DE as the third priority behind LB and S for 2011. 2010 is still looking like a stronger draft class for 3-4 DEs, this class has one DE I really like Day One, with one more possible - after that you're hoping one of the late round kids can match Mike Wright and LeKevin. I expect Titus Adams to show progress this preseason and help with depth. Kenny Smith is still in the area, he was at an event with Morris and Gostkowski, he was looking greatly improved before he got injured and I won't be surprised to see him back in camp battling for a spot.

I agree with you about 2010 being a much stronger draft for 3-4 DEs. I expect to see one taken on the first day if we don't get Gilbert or Jackson this year (I prefer the former, but I probably prefer next year's class). If we plug some future holes at OL, WR, LB and S then DE becomes the major area of focus for 2010. RB, as you mention, can be addressed fairly easily and rookies are often productive.

 

[mayoclinic]

BOR, what do you think about Rick Jean-Francois from LSU as a possible DE if he is available in the 3rd-4th round? His floor seems to me to be a Jarvis Green type guy. His ceiling might be a solid starter. Do you consider him an option?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

BOR, what do you think about Rick Jean-Francois from LSU as a possible DE if he is available in the 3rd-4th round? His floor seems to me to be a Jarvis Green type guy. His ceiling might be a solid starter. Do you consider him an option?

As they say in Louisiana, 'who dat?' Think about it.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Biggest question concerning the 2010 defense - Locker room leaders on defense?????

This year we have jettisioned Harrison and Vrabel, two strong leaders (in different ways) and two extremely high character guys.

If Seymour, Wilfork, Green and Bruschi leave following the 2009 season, where is the veteran leadership on defense and where are the "tough guys" on defense?

We went from Lawyer Milloy to Harrison with no drop off in leadership or toughness. Now we go from Harrison to James Sanders??? AAARRGGHHH!!!!! And while I do think Merriweather will eventually become a leader in the secondary, does a 5'10" 190 FS/SS really scare opposing receivers like a Troy Polomolu does currently?????

I think we need a heavy dose of home grown leadership (at all three levels), nastiness and toughness for our defense especially at safety).

 

[bakes781]

I think we need a heavy dose of home grown leadership (at all three levels), nastiness and toughness for our defense especially at safety).

Sounds like you're describing Louis Delmas?

 

[mgteich]

Apparently, you think the front office is totally incompetent.

Biggest question concerning the 2010 defense - Locker room leaders on defense?????

If Seymour, Wilfork, Green and Bruschi leave following the 2009 season, where is the veteran leadership on defense and where are the "tough guys" on defense?