SlowGettingUp
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- Jan 11, 2015
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This from 538:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-best-nfl-teams-of-all-time-according-to-elo/
A historical note here - ELO ratings were first used in chess. A 100 point advantage means that, on average, the stronger player will score 6.5 points out of 10 games. 1500 is generally taken as the midpoint of the ELO ratings distribution.
The ratings in football are way more compressed than they are in chess, where grandmasters have ratings of over 2700 and the strongest ever is the current champion (Magnus Carlson) with around 2880. By comparison, the 2007 Pats had a peak rating of 1849. The reason for the smaller spread in the NFL is twofold - first there is a lot more luck in a football game than there is in chess, and second the worst NFL team is still very good - thus the distribution would look quite different if you included college teams as well.
The basic way ELO ratings work is that if there is an upset then the stronger (losing) team loses rating points and the weaker (winning) team gains them. The bigger the upset the more points get gained and lost.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-best-nfl-teams-of-all-time-according-to-elo/
A historical note here - ELO ratings were first used in chess. A 100 point advantage means that, on average, the stronger player will score 6.5 points out of 10 games. 1500 is generally taken as the midpoint of the ELO ratings distribution.
The ratings in football are way more compressed than they are in chess, where grandmasters have ratings of over 2700 and the strongest ever is the current champion (Magnus Carlson) with around 2880. By comparison, the 2007 Pats had a peak rating of 1849. The reason for the smaller spread in the NFL is twofold - first there is a lot more luck in a football game than there is in chess, and second the worst NFL team is still very good - thus the distribution would look quite different if you included college teams as well.
The basic way ELO ratings work is that if there is an upset then the stronger (losing) team loses rating points and the weaker (winning) team gains them. The bigger the upset the more points get gained and lost.
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