rookBoston
In the Starting Line-Up
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spacecrime said:As I understand it, value groupings contain players of roughly equal value to the patriots. The key will be to draft the last guy left in this group, not the first. That will give maximum value per pick/$$$spent.
As far as your comment about no other team knowing the secret (assuming you were serious and not just being sarcastic), no two teams should have the same value placed on the player. According to Jimmy Johnson, one of the keys to a successful draft is to put a value on the players, your value, and don't worry where anyone else has set the value for the player. So should all 32 teams use a value grouping system, the various groups for different teams would comprise different players.
How'd I do, Rook? Do I understand your first post? Or am I missing something?
Yeah, you've got it, spacecrime.
The perfect draft position is at the very end of a Value Group.
So, for my Group 3, which is Lawson, Whitner, Kiwanuka, Wimbley and Marshall-- I claim that all five of those players represent identical value to the team, if they were drafted. Of course, they each have their own strengths and weaknesses, but we like them all and equally.
Let's say that at #21, Lawson and Wimbley are already off the board. Kiwanuka, Whitner and Marshall are all available to us.
Choices:
(1) Take one of them at #21
(2) Trade down exactly two spots to #23, where you're absolutely positive that at least one of them will still be there, since there are three of them.
(3) Trade down even further than that and watch the draft board. As soon as two of them come off the board, immediately trade back up and take the last guy left. You should be able to wait until the late 20s, or early 30s and still get a player you liked at #21... plus we earn a mid round pick in the exchange.
Really, it doesn't matter what other teams know or think about your draft board. We expect other teams to like and take these players. If the process is executed correctly, and we can find teams willing to trade with us (we can make it worthwhile for them, and still come out ahead), then as soon as a Value Group is down to it's last player, we have to move up immediately to lock that player down. We get a guy we wanted all along, for the best possible price, with very little risk.
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