1st round full mock

[BobDigital]

So i have only started looking at the prospects about 3 weeks ago but i think it would be fun to do a full NFL first round mock. It will be based on a mix of what i think teams will do and what i think they should do.

#1 CLE- Sam Donald - QB - no big surprise here for me. While i don't honestly love this QB class i don't hate it either. It has solid enough top prospects and the position is too important. Donald is the safest options most likely.

#2 NYG - Baker Mayfield - QB - I think when we look back at this draft Mayfield will be the most impactful player. Teams for too long have let height scare them off talented QBs. The giants may well want to trade down but other teams know if they don't pick a QB at least 1 good one is sure to fall to 4 where cleveland could be asked to trade for better value.

#3 NYJ - Josh Allen - QB - The Jets didn't move up to #3 not to take a QB. Personally i hate the move for them. If you're going to trade up for a QB trade up to #1 and pick the guy you believe in the most.

#4 TRADE - TB ( Bucs give CLE #7 and 2nd) - Saquon Barkley - RB - The Bucs have no RB option and badly need the position addressed. Cleveland could use him to but they have a few options. I personally don't love the RB position but if you wanna help your young QB this would go a long way and to doing it and Cleveland will have a top rated prospect at #7.

#5 DEN - Bradley Chubb - DE - Denver could go in almost any direction here but i don't think they reach for a QB not worth it. Chubb is a very safe prospect and the best defensive player in the draft when it comes to ceiling vs floor potential. The most likely guy to come day 1 and contribute on your first defensive snap of the year as well as have probowl potential. No other defensive prospect truly offers that in this draft IMO.

#6 IND - Trumaine Edmunds - LB - It is hard to screw up the #6 pick. Indy has been a bad team at draft ever since Luck fell into their hands. This is probably high for Edmunds but his potential is amazing. Honestly I don't hate him here based on upside. He's only 19 years old and can improve more than any other top prospect this draft with his physical gifts. Still I see it as an unneeded risk to take but Indy is a team i think takes it.

#7 CLE - Minkah Fitzpatrick - FS/CB - A solid pick for a team just looking for a good coverage player. Other guys make sense too but this is a good pick at a very high impact position.

#8 CHI - Derwin James - S - A lot of players could be had later but there are only a few safeties really worth talking about in the first 45 picks. Chicago takes one here at a need position.

#9 SF - Quentin Nelson - G - "I'm so glad we picked that guard with our top 10 pick!" - almost no team ever. Guards simply are not usually high enough impact to warrant such a selection. But Nelson is just much better than anyone left and fits a need. SF's #1 goal this year is simple. Build a team that can keep JG healthy for the next 10-15 years. This is a smart investment into doing that.

#10 - OAK - Denzel Ward - CB - Oakland seems to always go for very talented players regardless of much else and hope it works out. Ward's 4.32 40 speed probably shot him up their board a few spots. Also a so-so combine by Jackson didn't help his case to be picked here.

#11 TRADE -SD (Dolphins trade #11 for SD #17, 3rd and a 3rd next year.) Josh Rosen - QB - Everyone knows the Bills want a QB at #12 making this a big point to jump up. SD needs to think about a post Rivers world. They decide to jump up here for a fairly modest price to pick the last "high" 1st round QB worth taking IMO.

#12 BUF - Cavlin Ridley - WR - With their top QBs gone the question is now do they reach or do they take one at the bottom of the first? I think they focus on a need area and try to help their next young QB whoever he is at this point the way things fell.

TBC

 

[BobDigital]

#13 WASH - Vita Vea - DT/NT - How high should a NT go in todays pass heavy game even if he is exceptionally talented? I say about this high. He looks like the 2nd coming of Wilfork to me and that still translates.

#14 GB - Joshua Jackson - CB - GB needs help in a lot of spots but none so much as CB. I have them pick a big more physical CB here but really it could be any defensive position or a RB.

#15 AZ - Harold Landy - DE/OLB - A few teams will grade this guy without worrying about his 2017 tape so much, in which he was injured. Frankly he could go before this. Pass rushers with his talent are rare. I honestly think this is just about his floor which is sad cause I'd like to Pats to have a shot without mortgaging all their picks.

#16 BAL - Mike McGlinchey - OT - A lot of people have them going WR here but if Calvin isn't there I don't see it. Frankly I wasn't super high on him in the first place. The Ravens badly need help on offense though and OTs usually don't start getting taken any later than this even without an amazing class. McClinchey is a solid OT and future LT for them I think.

#17 MIA - Da'ron Payne - DT - Not an overly suprising pick here considering whose left and the needs of the Dolphins. They may regret not taking a QB at #11 but I think this is a good value pick and they got draft capital on top of it.

#18 SEA - Marcus Davenport - DE - Seattle badly needs pass rush help due to FA and injuries. I wouldn't be surprised if they went CB here though or RB. I think they use their 2nd pick on a RB though.

#19 DAL - Roquan Smith - OLB - It would be kind of suprising if he fell here but i see it as very possible. DAL needs LB help and the value here is too good.

#20 - DET - Jaire Alexander - CB - While not the main need for this team there just isn't value in those at thi point and Jaire is rising up most boards. Looks like maybe the best CB in the draft when you mix checking the build/talent boxes with his tape.

#21 - CIN - Leighton Vander Esxh - LB - Cinci needs a lot of help but this is the biggest impact they can get for an immediate need. A solid pick.

#22 BUF - Lamar Jackson - QB - The Bills take their QB here. Personally I hate Jackson. I think he will do what most running QBs do and bust.

TBC

 

[manxman2601]

#13 WASH - Vita Vea - DT/NT - How high should a NT go in todays pass heavy game even if he is exceptionally talented? I say about this high. He looks like the 2nd coming of Wilfork to me and that still translates.

#14 GB - Joshua Jackson - CB - GB needs help in a lot of spots but none so much as CB likely. I have them pick a big more physical CB here but really it could be any defensive position or a RB.

#15 AZ - Harold Landy - DE/OLB - A few teams will grade this guy without worrying about his 2017 tape so much in which he was injured. Frankly he could go before this. Pass rushers with his talent are rare. I honestly think this is just about his floor which is sad cause I'd like to Pats to have a shot without mortgaging all their picks.

#16 BAL - Mike McGlinchey - OT - A lot of people have them going WR here but if Calvin isn't there I don't see it. Frankly I wasn't super high on him in the first play. The Ravens badly need help on offense though and OTs usually don't start getting taken later than this even without an amazing class. McClinchey is a solid OT and future LT for them I think.

#17 MIA - Da'ron Payne - DT - Not an overly suprising pick here considering whose left and the needs of the Dolphins. They may regret not taking a QB at #11 but I think this is a good value pick and they got draft capital on top of it.

#18 SEA - Marcus Davenport - DE - Seattle badly needs pass rush help due to FA and injuries. I wouldn't be surprised if they went CB here though or RB. I think they use their 2nd pick on a RB though.

#19 DAL - Roquan Smith - OLB - It would be kind of suprising if he fell here but i see it as very possible. DAL needs LB help and the value here is too good.

#20 - DET - Jaire Alexander - CB - While not the main need for this team there just isn't value in those at thi point and Jaire is rising up boards i think. Looks like maybe the best CB in the draft when you mix checking the build/talent boxes with his tape.

#21 - CIN - Leighton Vander Esxh - LB - Cinci needs a lot of help but this is the biggest impact they can get for an immediate need. A solid pick.

#22 BUF - Lamar Jackson - QB - The Bills take their QB here. Personally I hate Jackson. I think he will do what most running QBs do and bust.

TBC

Way to pause your mock at exactly the wrong time

If Roquan is there at 19, I kinda hope the Pats trade up to 18.

 

[BobDigital]

#23 NE - The Pats would love to trade this pick I think but I don't see any reasonable trade partner or a team that may want give up enough to make the move worth doing for the Pats. A lot of people have OT here but I think any rookie they pick here as likely to much improve over Garcia for this year. The Pats instead opt to help their D. The question is what do they do? CB is deep and no one clearly stands above the rest. Safety is a no. So either DL or LB (namely Evans). I think this is a bit too high for Evans right now and the pick here for value and need to me is Taven Bryan - DT/DE. At 290 he can let us keep Flowers on the outside if we want. We can also move him to the other DE spot. He has the flexibility BB would love and can get after the QB. He started football late and still has room to grow into his ability. A very good 2017 season could take him out of our range but I think it is possible he falls this far.

#24 CAR - Hayden Hurst - TE - The Panthers could use help on a few D spots but it is their offense that really needs help. TE is thin and that will push Hurst up. Not that he doesn't deserve to go in the firt round in any case.

#25 TENN - Rashaan Evans - LB - I tried to think of anyone but Evans who would make almost as much sense at this point for them but I wouldn't do it. To bad for the Pats the last 1st round LB is gone.

#26 ATL - Will Hernandez - G - The Falcons could use a WR but i don't see the value in Sutton or Moore TBH. Also the DEs which they also could use are questionable. Guard seems like a worthy pick for this spot.

#27 NO - Courtland Sutton - WR - The Saints could really pick just about anything but RB and I wouldn't be surprised. A lot of the top talents are gone they they go for the fairly safe Sutton who can be a servicable #2 by mid season at the least I think.

#28 PIT - Sam Hubbard - DE - Pitt doesn't have a great option here. They may need to think to replace all Bell and Ben in the near future but no one is worth picking here IMO. LB be great but again no worth pick. They will try to trade out but won't be able to and so pick the likely best defensive front 7 player.

#29 JAX - Kolton Miller - OT - The Jags could use WR help, QB help and OL help to name a few pots. Pretty much anything but D could use a hand. This is a good value pick for the need.

#30 MIN - Isaiah Wynn - OG/OT - The Vikings need to find ways to help their O. Yes their D crapped the bed last year in the game that mattered most but this is a much more important spot and need.

#31 NE - Arden Key - DE - This is the part of the draft where BB loves to take risk on talented players with red flags. Of course he'd like to trade too but i doubt a partner exist for this spot with the people left. (maybe someone moves up for the falling center Daniels?) The different between a guy at 31 and 51 usually isn't much in most drafts and this one is no different so why not take a shot? Arden Key has his issues but i don't think there are reports of him being really violent and it sounds like he loves football. He has a few red flags but i honestly like him at this spot.

#32 PHI - Maurice Hurst - DE/DT - Take a risk on a big talented defensive line man without a true position. Why not? They have few holes to fill and he has good upside.

The odd thing about this draft is no trades for the Pats with 2 first round picks. I think they trade a 2nd round pick though to get more later.

 

[zimmy]

If Maurice Hurst is still there are 31 and his medical checks out I would be all over him.

Either way, I would try and ransom a team if Rudolph or Jackson was available when we picked and try and get a future 1st from someone.

 

[stevedogc]

If Maurice Hurst is still there are 31 and his medical checks out I would be all over him.

Either way, I would try and ransom a team if Rudolph or Jackson was available when we picked and try and get a future 1st from someone.

Id give serious consideration to taking him at 23. If, as you say, his medical clears. Would be nice to get a player who can get pressure up the middle.

 

[ashley]

I kinda think if we trade up, it's going to be for a LT. The more I think about it, the less comfortable I feel about having Cannon and Waddle our starters going into the year. They are just too injury prone.

If we're able to get the LT with our 1st pick, then I think we focus on getting our LB/ Edge rusher and Qb with the our next picks.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Great effort. Rosen falling out of the top ten? Bold, but I appreciate the departure from group think.

I might be wrong on this one, but I don't like Key. Too many red flags for me, and that's on top of his deficiencies in the rum game.

 

[mgteich]

I suspect that OAK would be willing to accept a 23 and 31 for someone to draft Rosen.

So i have only started looking at the prospects about 3 weeks ago but i think it would be fun to do a full NFL first round mock. It will be based on a mix of what i think teams will do and what i think they should do.

#1 CLE- Sam Donald - QB - no big surprise here for me. While i don't honestly love this QB class i don't hate it either. It has solid enough top prospects and the position is too important. Donald is the safest options most likely.

#2 NYG - Baker Mayfield - QB - I think when we look back at this draft Mayfield will be the most impactful player. Teams for too long have let height scare them off talented QBs. The giants may well want to trade down but other teams know if they don't pick a QB at least 1 good one is sure to fall to 4 where cleveland could be asked to trade for better value.

#3 NYJ - Josh Allen - QB - The Jets didn't move up to #3 not to take a QB. Personally i hate the move for them. If you're going to trade up for a QB trade up to #1 and pick the guy you believe in the most.

#4 TRADE - TB ( Bucs give CLE #7 and 2nd and receive a 4th back) - Saquon Barkley - RB - The Bucs have no RB option and badly need the position addressed. Cleveland could use him to but they have a few options. I personally don't love the RB position but if you wanna help your young QB this would go a long way and to doing it and Cleveland will have a top rated prospect at #7.

#5 DEN - Bradley Chubb - DE - Denver could go in almost any direction here but i don't think they reach for a QB not worth it. Chubb is a very safe prospect and the best defensive player in the draft when it comes to ceiling vs floor potential. The most likely guy to come day 1 and contribute on your first defensive snap of the year as well as have probowl potential. No other defensive prospect truly offers that in this draft IMO.

#6 IND - Trumaine Edmunds - LB - It is hard to screw up the #6 pick. Indy has been a bad team at draft ever since Luck fell into their hands. This is probably high for Edmunds but his potential is amazing. Honestly I don't hate him here based on upside. He's only 19 years old and can improve more than any other top prospect this draft with his physical gifts. Still I see it as an unneeded risk to take but Indy is a team i think takes it.

#7 CLE - Minkah Fitzpatrick - FS/CB - A solid pick for a team just looking for a good coverage player. Other guys make sense too but this is a good pick at a very high impact position.

#8 CHI - Derwin James - S - A lot of players could be had later but there are only a few safeties really worth talking about in the first 45 picks. Chicago takes one here at a need position.

#9 SF - Quentin Nelson - G - "I'm so glad we picked that guard with our top 10 pick!" - almost no team ever. Guards simply are not usually high enough impact to warrant such a selection. But Nelson is just much better than anyone left and fits a need. SF's #1 goal this year is simple. Build a team that can keep JG healthy for the next 10-15 years. This is a smart investment into doing that.

#10 - OAK - Denzel Ward - CB - Oakland seems to always go for very talented players regardless of much else and hope it works out. Ward's 4.32 40 speed probably shot him up their board a few spots. Also a so-so combine by Jackson didn't help his case to be picked here.

#11 TRADE -SD (Dolphins trade #11 for SD #17, 3rd and a 3rd next year.) Josh Rosen - QB - Everyone knows the Bills want a QB at #12 making this a big point to jump up. SD needs to think about a post Rivers world. They decide to jump up here for a fairly modest price to pick the last "high" 1st round QB worth taking IMO.

#12 BUF - Cavlin Ridley - WR - With their top QBs gone the question is now do they reach or do they take one at the bottom of the first? I think they focus on a need area and try to help their next young QB whoever he is at this point the way things fell.

TBC

 

[bakes781]

Great effort. Rosen falling out of the top ten? Bold, but I appreciate the departure from group think.

Aaron Rodgers is on line 1

I used to love doing mocks but after awhile it really is an exercise in futility. The 1st half of the round is someone easy to predict, but after that it's a crap shoot. I would much rather focus on the late round gems. That's where BB excels anyway.

 

[manxman2601]

I admire the effort but I would not like that draft for the Pats. Key strikes me as being a flake that I would but trust with a first round pick (I’m not sure about day two either) and the book on Bryan is that he plays with a lack of discipline, particularly against the run.

For me, based upon that mock, I’d look at:

a) Trade up for Roquan
b) Draft Evans at 23 and then maybe Justin Reid at 31
C) Depending on how they view Rudolph, taking him at 31. Although, presumably if they like him enough to be Brady’s potential successor, they’d take him at 23.

 

[BobDigital]

Thanks for all the reply's. I guess to explain my reasoning for how this mock worked out I should give my feeling on at least the top part of the draft.

Part of it was in assessing this draft and part of it was looking at the history of the draft. At QB no one looks amazing and they tend to fall more than people expect. The WRs in particular are underwhelming this draft.

As for what I have the Patriots doing it is partly how the draft breaks for them and this scenario and also how BB tends to work the draft with trades. He is honestly just about as likely to trade up as down in the draft but the difference is when he trades up usually it is a very modest price and he is willing to make bigger trades when trading down. So while I think a trade up is possible it seems a big sticking point for BB is if it cost him a 2nd to move up in the draft he doesn't do it (This means the 2nd being the kicker for the move. Not as in trading a 2nd and a 3rd for a higher 2nd) . Trading up using a 2nd round pick or more is something BB has never done. He has traded 2nd round picks for players though.

If that is something he is just flat out unwilling to do then it lessens his ability to move up and reach for a guy he likes in the draft. This means the highest the Pats can go is 23+95 (760+120=880) 19th overall. 19th is Smith's absolute floor too and the Pats judging by their history will not be willing to move up any higher to get any player.

So maybe they do try to move up to get Smith if he is there but I don't think Dallas would be willing to make that trade. They really need LB and if Smith does fall that far they aren't letting him go for a 3rd round pick when he is such a value at that spot.

That's too bad as he is the last player I would have moved up to get.

As for my 23rd pick IDK. Evans make sense but honestly I don't see him as a player worth of that spot. If he is grabbed there it is more for need and scarcity than talent.

My hope at that point is Leighton Vander Esch falling to 23. I think it is very possible and IMO he is the better choice.

As for the 31st selection. I just think that is a spot when they usually like to do more of an outside the box move and go for a home run. True they also sometimes pick a safe bet like Malcolm Brown but they seem to more like to go for a Gronk or Easley there. I think if they are force to pick 2 first rounders they take a risk on one of them. Key is worth taking a risk on if they choose to. He has top 10 upside.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

For me, based upon that mock, I’d look at:

a) Trade up for Roquan
b) Draft Evans at 23 and then maybe Justin Reid at 31
C) Depending on how they view Rudolph, taking him at 31. Although, presumably if they like him enough to be Brady’s potential successor, they’d take him at 23.

I would be ecstatic if bb grabbed Evans at 23.

I doubt Evans makes it past tenn. at 25, so bb has to go for it at 23.

For pick 31, I think bb trades it. That fifth year is important and Cleveland will want to come back into the first for it. They give us 35 and 109.

With pick 35, I think we go corner All the way. Either Oliver or Davis.