Ring 6
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I have always said go for 2, because now you have certainty of whether it’s really still a 1 score game or a 2 score game. (If you are going to succeed or fail it’s the same whether try the first time or second)This scenario happens on occasion, and was confronted by John Harbaugh this weekend.
The "convensional wisdom" is to kick the extra point and "make it a one score game". Then you rely on your D, hope to get it back, hope to score again, and then go for two to tie.
So.... you delay the risky play.
Problem is, then you won't know if you are going to convert that risky play, perhaps, until such time as converting it has become your only hope. Isn't it better to know SOONER? If you make it, you're set. if you miss it, you instead play to get two posessions. It's a taller task, but you know it up front. That knowledge can affect your strategy. You use your TOs earlier, for example, needing two scores.
I intensely dislike Harbaugh, but I think that he made the right decision to go for the two pointer earlier rather than later. They missed on the 2-pointer, so he is of course second-guessed.
I guess the downside is "momentum" and a sense of doom if you don't make it. The opponent will also be more geared toward milking the clock. Oddly, though, that may be an advantage rather than a disadvantage for you, if you opponent is trending away from the play style that they used to get ahead in the first place.
For this question, assume that you kicker is a good one, the weather is fine, an XP is more or less like Larry Bird shooting a free throw, and you have all of your time outs.
This happened recently in a game Aikman was doing. They went for 2 and he disagreed and it was the best argument I’ve heard for taking the 1. He said if you take the one it is a 1 score game and you put pressure on the opponent offense. If you go for 2 and miss the opponent offense has zero pressure.