you guys saying 2-2 would be a miracle baffle me.
I just sent off a script to dramaturgs for them to tell me I suck, so I feel like I can just use this place for my big writing dump. So here's a few reasons we can think of this team as improved, starting from the pessimist/realist read, and including how successful "unknowns" can get us into the league our schedule says we're in between now and September.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QB: Continued growth, O-line improvement bump. You guys saw what I saw last year. Even in sack-fests, our boy is putting up elite (or elite-ish) numbers. They'll become gaudy if and when he has anything other than the worst WR corps and O-line of the good teams. We'd be assuming facts not in evidence to say the WR corps improves. We'd be stubborn pessimists to assume decline or break-even play on the O-line. (See below on both counts).
WR: At this point, a decline from last year, if nothing else changes. Big if though. If we don't get Brown, then we're trusting Doubs to be the new Diggs, or we're hoping to haul Diggs back into the boat at a different price point. Por que no los dos? I mean, that would be cool, but would result in minimal use of our sudddenly deep reserve of guys named Kyle (especially Kyle Prime.) With a young group, you get a little bump at least, on average, from growth, familiarity with the system, and stamina to make it through the 87-game (or whatever it is now) NFL season.
Howsomever, to be a realist, you have to look at the known group at WR as taking a hit. (Not replacing Diggs). I mean, I don't really believe that. But you don't change by rating the work in progress as finished/successful.
WR Grade: Incomplete.
- If the season starts today, Doubs has to do for us what Diggs did. Assuming facts not in evidence.
- Countervailing arguments: Improvement (as yet unproven) at TE, room for growth for Williams, any others the current staff thinks can show out
O-Line: Anything from "better" to "OMFG" given what Maye could produce with last year's group.
Lomu Emu or whatever, the second scoop of left tackle to go with Will Campbell, goes a long way to shoring up the options at the LT position, pushes Campbell, gives us depth there, and gives us another guard prospect even if he doesn't show up as LT on your game day program. Eventually, Campbell's T-Rex arms might consign him to phone-booth duty. Lomu Emu or whatever has played his whole college career at left tackle and has nearly another inch of arm over Campbell, which smart guys seem to think is critical... but almost 5 inches more wingspan. He could get a shot at starting, but he might not be ready to just plug and play. So that positional focus he's had so far just hurts at finding another position for him if he's the future at LT but not ready yet. Possibilities: Anything from a great LT backup option if injury becomes a "thing" for Campbell, to Campbell's LT replacement, to a motivator for Campbell. If the unlikely happens and Lomu Emu or whatever gets the LT spot, Campbell still has the tools to contribute at Guard, so we probably get an additional starter out of the Campell pick - not what you want for that caliber of pick, but this is a "did we get better" rant, not a "was he a bust" rant. Me? I think injury, rookie unfamiliarity, and a QB who likes to hold the ball too long all contributed to a tough first year, especially down the stretch. I haven't given up on T-Rex Campbell.
Alijah Vera-Tucker, guard on purpose not a failed tackle, could be rested, healthy, and ready to ball out after injury cut short his 2025. Or, as the Jets believe, he might just be too pricey and too injury-prone. I mean, $14M/year isn't that much to ask if he's actually on the field, doing what he does very well. We'll see how much of him we get. But we at least get a temporary AVT bump. That's got to be a bonus.
Losing Vederian Lowe, last season's spare Campbell, will likely be compensated by the arrivals of Lomu Emu or whatever and T James Hudson.
Garrett Bradbury's departure is not stunning. I don't hear about him being a world-beating backup center, so I am hoping we can replace a JAG with a JAG to nullify the departure. Jared Wilson is the man this year, unless he's not.
Upside: what if they gel into a functional O-line, AVT stays healthy, Lomu Emu or whatever is ready to take over at LT on day 1, Campbell shines as a guard, Mike Onwenu is playing for his future elsewhere and dominates in what might be his last year here, and I poop rainbows and cupcakes? Come on, admit it, this is a group capable of a lot, ideally.
Midline projection: If bad games are 3-sack games instead of 6-sack games, that's a lot of drives not risked or stalled. Turn Kyle Williams loose and have enough time for plays with him to develop, and see what happens. By the way, those remaining 3 sacks in a bad game are predictable outgrowths of Drake's running dimension... I guess we should live the idea that 3 will happen. 6 is too many. This is not the way.
TE - We added some. We'll figure out if they're good.
FB - We've got one now. This is actually intriguing. It's giving Vrabes and company options we did not have last year, and possibly also sets up another dimension in the running game. |
RBs - On gameday, it's the Trey and Dre show, or vice versa. We're consistently toward the top of the league in run game production and have added depth.
Conclusion as of mid-May: I think this group emerges to challenge any team on this schedule. It's a group that can hang with anybody, even if they're not an unstoppable juggernaut... yet.
On defense:
Secondary - Improved and already very good
First, who you going to throw on? If not the best secondary in the league all around, having the best corner (Gonzo) paired with a highly rated no. 2 corner (Carlton Davis III) and an upgrade at Safety (Byard) should make this already effective crew more effective. Put me on record for more turnovers out of this secondary. Overall, I'm ranking them improved.|
LB/EDGE - Incomplete
Did we do enough to pump up the performance of the front 7? To me, that's a question mark. How much does Jacas help? I am guessing he's competent but not taking over games. Maybe some of you guys know better. And of course you always have to account for Quintayvius Hutchins, not because of his talent, but because he's got a quasi-Roman name on the order of Barkevious Mingo. Truthfully, I know we want to get after the QB more, I just don't know that this unit is improved. I am very open to the argument that they are.
Overall conclusion:
Without going full wishful thinking on any position, I'd say this unit can be as good as they were last year, as the floor. There is huge room for improvement, but remember what they were like when healthy. I believe all the main characcters are back. With some luck and some depth (AKA, making your own luck), they could go on tears where no RB compiles 50 yards on them again. But when those opposing QBs see their targets blanketed, it sure would be nice to see a rush competent enough to get him on the ground.
We're not this assortment of misfit toys that got lucky. We've got a tougher schedule (though it's still the 12th-easiest) but we won a lot of our tough games in 2025.
This team wins the 11-12 games it takes to make it to the post-season, and perhaps goes on a tear. We'll see what we get, especially in the passing game, to mount a strong argument for a Lombardi run.
All you "9-8" guys, I think you're drinking the league-wide koolaid on our "easy schedule" way too much.
