2026 Projected Strength of Schedule

[SlowGettingUp]

Well this is something of a surprise - we've all been assured that the Pats will face a very tough schedule this year, in contrast to last year's cakewalk.

So here's a projection based on Las Vegas projected wins - and surprise! - we have the 12th easiest (easiest on top here):

2026 NFL Strength Of Schedule, Teams Ranked for Regular Season

Ranking 2026 NFL strength of schedule for all 32 teams easiest to hardest, based on projected win totals for every opponent from Vegas oddsmakers.

www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I can’t remember the last time we thought a schedule was going to be brutal in the early portion of the year and it actually ended up being incredibly tough. Still should be harder than last year but after another productive offseason i think we’ll be up to it.

I find Baltimore’s over under win total pretty crazy. That team is so overhyped

 

[Rob0729]

I find SOS rankings useless at this point. If you had the Patriots on your schedule at this point last year, it would have made your strength of schedule look easier because the Pats had 4 wins in 2024 and 14 wins in 2025. That massively affected the SOSs last year of every team that played the Pats especially the AFC East opponents.

 

[XLIX]

The Patriots SOS is the 6th toughest when we look at everyone's 2025 record.

According to the above, it is 12th toughest when we look at Vegas projections for 2026.

Come January, it will no doubt be something entirely different.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

According to the above, it is 12th toughest when we look at Vegas projections for 2026.

No, 12th easiest. Lions have the easiest projected schedule. Helps that we get the Jets and the Dolphins twice.

It's an early projection obviously - going to change, perhaps dramatically, as the season unfolds.

 

[UGAPatsfan]

No, 12th easiest. Lions have the easiest projected schedule. Helps that we get the Jets and the Dolphins twice.

It's an early projection obviously - going to change, perhaps dramatically, as the season unfolds.

I could see the Jets being respectable this year unfortunately

 

[Uptown]

This is why the SOS talk from fans of other teams last never moved me. NE was a dumpster fire in 2024, so obviously we’d receive a “weak schedule” in 2025. What? Were we supposed to play a top 5-10 team schedule after going 4-13?? It’s not rocket science; people are just idiots. Be that as it may; we win a minimum of 12 games this season. Maye wins MVP.

 

[Wozzy]

Strength of schedule is wildly overrated at the beginning of the year.

After it's all over you can go back and really judge the teams they played.

Prior to knowing what teams will actually be, or who will be healthy is meaningless guesswork.

 

[Brick27]

This is why the SOS talk from fans of other teams last never moved me. NE was a dumpster fire in 2024, so obviously we’d receive a “weak schedule” in 2025. What? Were we supposed to play a top 5-10 team schedule after going 4-13?? It’s not rocket science; people are just idiots. Be that as it may; we win a minimum of 12 games this season. Maye wins MVP.

The number of idiots who follow football yet still don’t understand the scheduling format is pretty interesting. It’s like some believe it is 6 games of divisional foes with the rest being contrived of a random batch of opponents.

 

[Rob0729]

I could see the Jets being respectable this year unfortunately

I see them doing the Jets thing. Being bad, but not being bad enough to be in position to draft one of the top QBs in next year's draft. That is unless they all end up being busts and then they will get a top 3 pick.

I think Geno Smith was a product of the Seahawks offense. And let's face it. He only had one really good year and two decent years with them. And with all the talent the Jets had on defense before they traded it all away, it was still an awful defense.

 

[Rob0729]

I love seeing online all these fans of other teams thinking the Pats are going 8-9 next year because the schedule is no longer cake. They did beat the Carolina, Texans, Jags, and Bills last year (I won't put the Broncos in that mix because of the situation). They did beat good teams that made the playoffs last year. The schedule argument is kinda bunk. Yes, they may not have won 14 games with a harder schedule, but only 8 games?

 

[XLIX]

No, 12th easiest.

OK my bad. Interesting how different it is compared to when we use the actual 2025 records.

 

[TheRainMaker]

I want that Seattle game bad! That better be a SNF game.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Here's the list sorted by last year's results. Note it's reversed from the other list - hardest on top. Patriots at 6. Some dramatic changes compared with Las Vegas list.

NFL 2026 strength of schedule​

• 1. Chicago Bears (.550)
• 2. Miami Dolphins (.542)
• 3. Arizona Cardinals (.538)
• 3. Green Bay Packers (.538)
• 5. Kansas City Chiefs (.536)
• 6. New England Patriots (.531)
• 7. Las Vegas Raiders (.529)
• 8. Buffalo Bills (.528)
• 9. Los Angeles Chargers (.522)
• 10. Carolina Panthers (.521)
• 11. Minnesota Vikings (.519)
• 12. New York Jets (.517)
• 13. Los Angeles Rams (.516)
• 14. Seattle Seahawks (.514)
• 15. Denver Broncos (.512)
• 16. Washington Commanders (.502)
• 17. New York Giants (.498)
• 18. San Francisco 49ers (.497)
• 19. Pittsburgh Steelers (.495)
• 20. Dallas Cowboys (.493)
• 21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (.491)
• 22. Jacksonville Jaguars (.490)
• 23. Philadelphia Eagles (.481)
• 24. Baltimore Ravens (.479)
• 25. Tennessee Titans (.476)
• 26. Houston Texans (.474)
• 27. Detroit Lions (.467)
• 28. Atlanta Falcons (.465)
• 28. Indianapolis Colts (.465)
• 30. Cincinnati Bengals (.450)
• 31. New Orleans Saints (.434)
• 32. Cleveland Browns (.429)

Per an AI:

Biggest movers toward easier schedule in Sharp (vs. traditional): Chicago Bears: Traditional #1 toughest → Sharp #27 (huge drop; Bears benefit from projected regression of many 2025-strong opponents).
Miami Dolphins: #2 → #31.
Arizona Cardinals: #3 → #32.
Green Bay Packers: #3 → #17.
Las Vegas Raiders: #7 → #19.

Biggest movers toward tougher schedule in Sharp (vs. traditional): Detroit Lions: Traditional #27 → Sharp #1 (biggest jump; their opponents are now projected much stronger).
New Orleans Saints: #31 → #2.
Cincinnati Bengals: #30 → #3.
Cleveland Browns: #32 → #4.
New York Jets: #12 → #5.
Baltimore Ravens: #24 → #6.

 

[Ross12]

Division games: 4-2
- split with the Bills
- split with the Jets
- sweep Miami

Home games: 4-1
Denver: W
- Bo Nix ankle issues; NE showed they can push around Denver’s OL in last year’s postseason
Green Bay: W
- WR corps may have issues after losing Doubs and Wicks; Watson, Reed and Golden are all injury risks themselves; not a Love believer
Las Vegas: W
- They will improve but it’s year one under a pretty young HC in Kubiak and a rookie QB in Mendoza
Minnesota: L
- I could see Murray having a somewhat decent career revival with the fleet of weapons in MIN and giving the NE defense trouble. Flores will call his usual excellent defense. One of those tough games.
Pittsburgh: W
- Their QB is either the 42 year old corpse of Aaron Rodgers, or it’s… nobody? Who knows? Not even they do! Also, their defense will be average at best.

Away games: 3-3
Chicago: W
- I just envision them pressuring the life out of Williams and causing turnovers. This one’s somewhat of a toss-up for me, but leaning W.
Detroit: W
- Feel like the Lions will continue a downward trajectory. Their OL has suffered some losses this year IIRC which is the centerpiece of their success with Goff, he folds without that.
Jacksonville: L
- Gonna guess this is an early season game and the team will be gassed trying to keep up with Jaguars offense in the heat and humidity.
Kansas City: W
- I don’t really think they’re that impressive. They looked really bad last year before Mahomes got hurt, he’s now coming back from injury and I don’t see much done to resolve their issues, particularly their OL problems. They’ll probably be a little better, but not much.
Los Angeles Chargers: L
- A team the Pats usually have the number of, but I do think the hiring of Mike McDaniel as OC will make a big difference there, at least for a year or two. Herbert will take a big step, which will be bad news for the Chiefs, so sad…
Seattle: L
- Game will be closer but this is probably still a top 2 or 3 team in the league, if not the best. Certainly the most complete. Especially as an away game, it would be hard to get the W here.

Overall record prediction: 11-6, first place in AFC East, second or third seed in conference