Older Prospects

[mayoclinic]

A number of board favorites this year are older prospects. With the NIL and transfer portal, it is increasingly likely that the mean age of draftable prospects will increase, and that 14 yo prospects will become more common.

We've already had 1 older prospects fail for the Pats: EDGE Keion White. However, an n of 1 is not enough.

Jeff Risdon recently posted 10 "hot takes":



#9 addresses the age issue with respect to 2 board favorites, Akheem Mesidor and Emmanuel Pregnon. Both are 5th/6th year prospects who have bounced around the portal, and who have only 1 good year of tape: their current year. Both are also playing on talented lines.

Risdon's argument - based on rumors he hears - is that these older prospects are physically more mature and developed, giving them an inherent advantage against younger college opponents - an advantage that will not translate to the pros.

Interesting thought. I thought this was worth it's own discussion.

Thoughts?

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

A number of board favorites this year are older prospects. With the NIL and transfer portal, it is increasingly likely that the mean age of draftable prospects will increase, and that 14 yo prospects will become more common.

We've already had 1 older prospects fail for the Pats: EDGE Keion White. However, an n of 1 is not enough.

Jeff Risdon recently posted 10 "hot takes":



#9 addresses the age issue with respect to 2 board favorites, Akheem Mesidor and Emmanuel Pregnon. Both are 5th/6th year prospects who have bounced around the portal, and who have only 1 good year of tape: their current year. Both are also playing on talented lines.

Risdon's argument - based on rumors he hears - is that these older prospects are physically more mature and developed, giving them an inherent advantage against younger college opponents - an advantage that will not translate to the pros.

Interesting thought. I thought this was worth it's own discussion.

Thoughts?

Well....
that would need a really deep dive.
Their lone good year, were they matched up against much younger players on the opposite side?
For example, did Messidor dominate against a 20 -21 year old Olineman on a frequent basis?
I didn't watch the video, maybe that deeper analysis is provided.
If not, this would need much more in depth analysis.

 

[Username]

A number of board favorites this year are older prospects. With the NIL and transfer portal, it is increasingly likely that the mean age of draftable prospects will increase, and that 14 yo prospects will become more common.

We've already had 1 older prospects fail for the Pats: EDGE Keion White. However, an n of 1 is not enough.

Jeff Risdon recently posted 10 "hot takes":



#9 addresses the age issue with respect to 2 board favorites, Akheem Mesidor and Emmanuel Pregnon. Both are 5th/6th year prospects who have bounced around the portal, and who have only 1 good year of tape: their current year. Both are also playing on talented lines.

Risdon's argument - based on rumors he hears - is that these older prospects are physically more mature and developed, giving them an inherent advantage against younger college opponents - an advantage that will not translate to the pros.

Interesting thought. I thought this was worth it's own discussion.

Thoughts?

It can definitely be a factor. But in Mesidors case, he doesn't rely entirely on physical strength to win, so it's not really a concern for me

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm neither pro nor con.

I can see - especially for linemen, who match up physically against each other on every snap - how a physically mature 23-24yo could theoretically beat up on 18-20yo underclassmen who aren't as developed, and then struggle in the prison against more physically mature competition.

In theory.

But I think it requires case-by-case analysis, and that it applies less to skill positions (e.g., Treydan Stukes at safety).

In Risdon's examples, if Mesidor and Pregnon slude, I would be happy to scoop either up.

I think we'll see more of this, as 24yo rookies become much more common.

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

I'm neither pro nor con.

I can see - especially for linemen, who match up physically against each other on every snap - how a physically mature 23-24yo could theoretically beat up on 18-20yo underclassmen who aren't as developed, and then struggle in the prison against more physically mature competition.

In theory.

But I think it requires case-by-case analysis, and that it applies less to skill positions (e.g., Treydan Stukes at safety).

In Risdon's examples, if Mesidor and Pregnon slude, I would be happy to scoop either up.

I don't think we'll see more of this, as 24yo rookies become much more common.

You think we WILL see more of this you meant, correct?

 

[mayoclinic]

Yes ... corrected. TY.

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

Yes ... corrected. TY.

With NIL money, guys have a lot of incentive to stay in school, especially if they're not going to be a very high pick.

 

[bakes781]

I was just thinking about this but moreso the impact this has on NBA prospects. You only have to be 19 to be eligible but now they would have to compete with guys 7-8 years their elder if they want to compete in college. That's messed up.

 

[OldEngland]

We've had a lot of discussion on older prospects across several threads, but I've not seen the economics discussed on the older prospects yet.

With someone like Mesidor, Stukes or Scott (an experienced, well developed, technically sound, older prospect) who a team thinks can play significant snaps from their rookie year, you are getting them for their prime years (25-30 Mesidor or 24-28 Stukes) on a rookie contract. Its potentially very solid value with the right player in the right team need situation.

 

[Rdforty2]

I dont think its fair to say Mesidor and Pregnon had 1 good year of tape. Pregnon was All B10 at USC before Oregon. On USC boards during his time there, he was discussed as a potential day 2 pick. Mesidor had 35 tfl and 23 sacks before this year.

Sure, I think their advanced age and physical development helps. But theyre playing top level football. There are big physical players throughout the B10 and SEC. Its not like they dominated D2 at 24.

The concern certainly is how much growth physically they can make. Its just a normal part of the evaluation. Some 22 year olds are maxed out physically as well. Its a fair concern but one to take on a case by case basis.

 

[bakes781]

I found a website that lets you sort by various measurables but for the purpose of this thread I went by age.

Explore over 2,700 NFL Draft prospects in The Beast 2026

Search every prospect in Dane Brugler's Beast 2026. Filter by college, position or draft grade. Sort by any scouting measure in the database.

www.nytimes.com

 

[mayoclinic]

So far the Pats seem youth focused. 21 year old athletic prospects are king. 25 year olds should probably not apply.

 

[manxman2601]

So far the Pats seem youth focused. 21 year old athletic prospects are king. 25 year olds should probably not apply.

The big thing I've learned from this cycle.

 

[mayoclinic]

Not pinning my hopes on Keionte Scott day 3. Jordan Van den Berg is 24.

 

[mayoclinic]

My early 2027 binkies seem safe: Jamari Johnson, Jelani McDonald, Yhonzae Pierre, Austin Siereveld, Cayden Green, Kade Pieper.

Carter Smith will be 23 when the 2027 draft takes place.

 

[OldEngland]

The big thing I've learned from this cycle.

Lomu 21, Jacas 21, Raridon 22, Miller 22
Prunty 24, Crownover 24, Obiazor 24, Morton 24, Hutchins 23.

In the last 2 draft cycles they've taken younger athletic prospects, not always with extensive experience, but with lots of growth potential, on day 1 and 2. Last year they took one older prospect in the 4th, this year 5 were 23 and over in day 3.

 

[OldEngland]

Wolf's interview touched on this.

Q: I just am sort of curious when it comes to the landscape in college football. Obviously, there's some older prospects coming into the league via the draft. How do you view those guys? Does it hurt their grade? Is it ever a benefit in your eyes? It did look like you took a couple of guys that in years past would have been considered older than normal.
EW: Yeah, I mean, I think that's just the landscape of college football now. It's something I know that we're very cognizant of. I think you can get into some trouble if you draft a bunch of 26-year-old guys looking at these four-year contracts, but as you get into Day 3, you're looking for the best players. You're looking for someone to fill a role. We're obviously pretty excited about the guys that we were able to add.

Transcript: Eliot Wolf Press Conference 4/25

 

[mayoclinic]

Lomu 21, Jacas 21, Raridon 22, Miller 22
Prunty 24, Crownover 24, Obiazor 24, Morton 24, Hutchins 23.

In the last 2 draft cycles they've taken younger athletic prospects, not always with extensive experience, but with lots of growth potential, on day 1 and 2. Last year they took one older prospect in the 4th, this year 5 were 23 and over in day 3.

Day 3 was very different from days 1-2 in terms of prospects age. I have no idea if this was intentional.

They reportedly tried to trade up for Trey Moore, who is 22 (turns 23 in 10 days).

 

[manxman2601]

Lomu 21, Jacas 21, Raridon 22, Miller 22
Prunty 24, Crownover 24, Obiazor 24, Morton 24, Hutchins 23.

In the last 2 draft cycles they've taken younger athletic prospects, not always with extensive experience, but with lots of growth potential, on day 1 and 2. Last year they took one older prospect in the 4th, this year 5 were 23 and over in day 3.

The trouble is, all the guys I liked that were older weren't day 1 or 2 guys when I first found them, they were all firmly day 3. And I can't give up on them once attached.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

This is probably the last year we'll see players this old being this numerous. No more COVID year players, and who knows what will come of a certain politician's executive orders.