OTish: Expected points vs. strategy choices in goal-to-go

[QuantumMechanic]

An interesting little article:

Evaluating Goal-to-Go Strategy with Expected Points | Football Outsiders

Interestingly though not all that surprisingly given NE's on-and-off redzone woes this year, Brady did not have a good year in goal-to-go:

For example, the most effective goal-to-go quarterbacks in Total Points on pass attempts (including sacks) in 2018 were Patrick Mahomes (11) and Drew Brees (10). That's expected, but the least effective ones may surprise -- Mitchell Trubisky (-14 Total Points), Tom Brady (-12), and Deshaun Watson (-12).

 

[FCB02062]

Not giving FO and their outsourced stat Indians a click, but I wonder how much of this is due to McDaniels OBSESSION w running almost every first down inside in 10....I swear way more often than not, this season especially, those runs were for no gain or a loss....kind of hamstrings Brady

 

[TB_Helmet]

An interesting little article:

Evaluating Goal-to-Go Strategy with Expected Points | Football Outsiders

Interestingly though not all that surprisingly given NE's on-and-off redzone woes this year, Brady did not have a good year in goal-to-go:

For example, the most effective goal-to-go quarterbacks in Total Points on pass attempts (including sacks) in 2018 were Patrick Mahomes (11) and Drew Brees (10). That's expected, but the least effective ones may surprise -- Mitchell Trubisky (-14 Total Points), Tom Brady (-12), and Deshaun Watson (-12).

Interesting. Questions it brings up:

1. (Obviously) why was Brady so ineffective on these? Sometimes if your model (here, EPA) gives counterintuitive results, you need to question the model before going forward. Deshaun Watson being another example; he's a good QB.

2. What's the breakdown of pass plays the Pats called in go-to-go? Did they call fades frequently (I know we call fades to Gronk a lot, but maybe not as much this year). How did Brady do in the higher percentage plays?

3. What's the average / median goal-to-go position for different QBs? Are they all close together or do the Pats for some reason have more such passing plays where they're further back from the goalline than other teams?

4. If you just look at these numbers since the Jets game, do they change at all?

This forum needs some representation on Football Outsiders IMO so we can get access to all their data and have a special Patriots section

 

[fnordcircle]

Not giving FO and their outsourced stat Indians a click

You still wear zubaz.

 

[TB_Helmet]

Not giving FO and their outsourced stat Indians a click, but I wonder how much of this is due to McDaniels OBSESSION w running almost every first down inside in 10....I swear way more often than not, this season especially, those runs were for no gain or a loss....kind of hamstrings Brady

Good question. If only there were a site that tracks and does analysis on that sort of thing...

 

[Sicilian]

Not giving FO and their outsourced stat Indians a click, but I wonder how much of this is due to McDaniels OBSESSION w running almost every first down inside in 10....I swear way more often than not, this season especially, those runs were for no gain or a loss....kind of hamstrings Brady

It sounds like this metric only tracks it based on passing plays. So while running on first down might limit his total number of TD's in goal to go, it shouldn't hurt his efficiency per throw in that situation.

I didn't read the article, but anecdotally, goal to go hasn't seemed as automatic for Brady this year as in year's past. But the answer to me is a LOT simpler: Gronk isn't the slam dunk he's been in the past, and Edelman was absent the first four games (and not 100% until later in the year).

 

[captain stone]

When it's 1st/Goal from the 6-10 yard lines, then I expect a TD 2 out of 3 times.
When it's 1st/Goal from inside the 5, I expect a TD EVERY FECKIN TIME, NO EXCUSES.