Free Agency Predictions: Call your shot

Huckleberry1 · Mar 8, 2026

Give Kraft A Hand said:
I think the Pats end up with Mafe say around 3/40. I do not think they end up with Pierce. He either reaches an 11 hour deal with the Colts for short term say like 2/60, or he goes to the Chargers for similar money the Pats are offering but endorsements he’ll get in LA will make up the difference in taxes. The one wild card with Pierce who no one is talking about is the Rams. They were poking around on Brown and they’re great at making tight cap situations work.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see him catching passes from Stafford this year.

If the Pats do sign a WR they’ll probably end up with Doubs who will probably be slightly overpaid and will end up getting cut after the season. I see him as a possession guy who was a product of the system in Green Bay. He’s more of a 3 which this team has a bunch of 3s and 4s already.

He's on record saying he has earned the right to go to free agency, and he's the top receiver in the market, there is zero chance that he stays with Indy on a short term deal. I don't know what your deal is but you seem really invested in trying to come up with reasons he won't sign with the Patriots. First it was because you like the weather in Cali, now you seem to think he would prefer a 2 year deal instead of $100 million. And the Rams already have 2 high priced receivers, they can't afford to blow a 3rd of their cap on 3 of them.

DoubleDeluxe · Mar 8, 2026

rabidfireweasel said:
Wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him crack 30M per year

That would put him in the category of:
Aiyuk
Waddle
St Brown
McLaurin
Higgins

Only guy on that list that is clearly better is St. Brown.

I would guess just under $30 AAV, like $28ish.

rabidfireweasel · Mar 8, 2026

28 is my prediction as well, but I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see him crack 30.

DoubleDeluxe · Mar 8, 2026

rabidfireweasel said:
28 is my prediction as well, but I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see him crack 30.

For sure.
Cap is always going up and the contracts along with them.

Give Kraft A Hand · Mar 8, 2026

Huckleberry1 said:
He's on record saying he has earned the right to go to free agency, and he's the top receiver in the market, there is zero chance that he stays with Indy on a short term deal. I don't know what your deal is but you seem really invested in trying to come up with reasons he won't sign with the Patriots. First it was because you like the weather in Cali, now you seem to think he would prefer a 2 year deal instead of $100 million. And the Rams already have 2 high priced receivers, they can't afford to blow a 3rd of their cap on 3 of them.

I’m being a realist. I’m also not the only one who has said this either. Pats usually don’t get these players and again 26 year old guy might like to be in 80 degree weather year round. Not that nefarious when you think about it.

Huckleberry1 · Mar 8, 2026

Give Kraft A Hand said:
I’m being a realist. I’m also not the only one who has said this either. Pats usually don’t get these players and again 26 year old guy might like to be in 80 degree weather year round. Not that nefarious when you think about it.

Actually you aren't being a realist because you are completely ignoring his statements on wanting to go into free agency, wanting to play for a team with a winning culture, play with a good QB, and wanting to go to a stable franchise. Instead you are imposing what you would like to do instead of what he wants.

Give Kraft A Hand · Mar 8, 2026

Huckleberry1 said:
Actually you aren't being a realist because you are completely ignoring his statements on wanting to go into free agency, wanting to play for a team with a winning culture, play with a good QB, and wanting to go to a stable franchise. Instead you are imposing what you would like to do instead of what he wants.

Chargers and Rams fit those categories too.

Look id like to be wrong on this and have him on the Pats but I’m being realistic. There’s a chance for sure. But do I think it’s particularly high? No.

50-yard-line · Mar 8, 2026

I said it a couple of weeks ago, got no responses, but when I looked at the FAs coming available, the name that jumped out at me was Joel Bitonio. (I heard that Bedard said this a few days after.)

Makes too much sense - and more now with Bradbury gone.

Bitonio for left guard: 2/12. (EDIT: make that 2/22, not 2/12).

I think Cade Otten is a strong possibility, and I've heard Mafe here a few times...took a closer look. He'd be a good signing.

DoubleDeluxe · Mar 8, 2026

Give Kraft A Hand said:
I’m being a realist. I’m also not the only one who has said this either. Pats usually don’t get these players and again 26 year old guy might like to be in 80 degree weather year round. Not that nefarious when you think about it.

Nothing nefarious about it, but why are we assuming a guy from the midwest prefers to be in 80 degree weather year rd?
Especially when you consider that there is very little time in season to enjoy said weather and many players live elsewhere in the offseason.
I grew up in Ontario, so I'm use to 4 seasons.
When I was 26 I was an avid snowboarder and hockey player.
I had zero interest in being in a one climate city.
As people get older, yes a lot of them tire of cold weather, but he's 26!

Huckleberry1 · Mar 8, 2026

Give Kraft A Hand said:
I’m being a realist. I’m also not the only one who has said this either. Pats usually don’t get these players and again 26 year old guy might like to be in 80 degree weather year round. Not that nefarious when you think about it.

How does the Patriots history under Belichick have anything to do with Vrabel's Patriots? IMO it's just another example of a Patriots fan seeing only gloom and doom.

Huckleberry1 · Mar 8, 2026

DoubleDeluxe said:
Nothing nefarious about it, but why are we assuming a guy from the midwest prefers to be in 80 degree weather year rd?
Especially when you consider that there is very little time in season to enjoy said weather and many players live elsewhere in the offseason.
I grew up in Ontario, so I'm use to 4 seasons.
When I was 26 I was an avid snowboarder and hockey player.
I had zero interest in being in a one climate city.
As people get older, yes a lot of them tire of cold weather, but he's 26!

It's someone posing their lifestyle decisions on other people's career decisions. Take a guy like Matt Light, he would never have gone to L.A. because his life outside of football was centered around hunting and fishing. Where someone wants to live is usually about how they conduct their life outside of work. For some guys that's big city and night life, for others it could outdoors interests. Unless you know how they want to live you have no idea where they want to be. I wouldn't live in the south for all the money in the world.

Huckleberry1 · Mar 8, 2026

Give Kraft A Hand said:
Chargers and Rams fit those categories too.

Look id like to be wrong on this and have him on the Pats but I’m being realistic. There’s a chance for sure. But do I think it’s particularly high? No.

We disagree, I see no reason he would want to live in L.A., and the Rams can't afford 3 30 million per receivers. I think the Patriots are the clear front runners.

Huckleberry1 · Mar 8, 2026

Give Kraft A Hand said:
I’m being a realist. I’m also not the only one who has said this either. Pats usually don’t get these players and again 26 year old guy might like to be in 80 degree weather year round. Not that nefarious when you think about it.

Pierce said he might want to play in Buffalo, does that sound like a guy pining for warm weather and the big city?

DoubleDeluxe · Mar 8, 2026

Huckleberry1 said:
It's someone posing their lifestyle decisions on other people's career decisions. Take a guy like Matt Light, he would never have gone to L.A. because his life outside of football was centered around hunting and fishing. Where someone wants to live is usually about how they conduct their life outside of work. For some guys that's big city and night life, for others it could outdoors interests. Unless you know how they want to live you have no idea where they want to be. I wouldn't live in the south for all the money in the world.

100%.
Imagine someone suggesting David Andrews would want to go play in LA on his second contract because it's LA.
Some are making really broad generalizations based on their own preferences and projecting those on Pierce because....he's 26 and will be rich?

rabidfireweasel · Mar 8, 2026

50-yard-line said:
I said it a couple of weeks ago, got no responses, but when I looked at the FAs coming available, the name that jumped out at me was Joel Bitonio. (I heard that Bedard said this a few days after.)

Makes too much sense - and more now with Bradbury gone.

Bitonio for left guard: 2/12.

I think Cade Otten is a strong possibility, and I've heard Mafe here a few times...took a closer look. He'd be a good signing.

excellent thoughts.

Does the Packers recent resigning of Rhyan at 3-33 with 11M guaranteed change what you think Bitonio gets? Or do you think Rhyan’s versatility and youth makes him significantly more valuable?

Huckleberry1 · Mar 8, 2026

DoubleDeluxe said:
100%.
Imagine someone suggesting David Andrews would want to go play in LA on his second contract because it's LA.
Some are making really broad generalizations based on their own preferences and projecting those on Pierce because....he's 26 and will be rich?

I agree. If the player has been open about their lifestyle preference, like saying they are from California and want to go back, or they are from Michigan and live to hunt and fish, then I can see people making suppositions about where they could sign. But the only things we know about what Pierce wants come from what he just said about his free agency.

1-He wants to become a free agent and test the market.

2-He wants to play with a good who isn't going anywhere. He clearly didn't like the QB carousel in Indy.

3- He wants to be on a team with a winning culture. That rules out a bunch of teams, particularly the Jets, Raiders, Falcons etc...

4-He wants to be with a stable franchise. Once again playing for a cokehead owner clearly didn't sit well with him.

Pierce will be a hot commodity, but the criteria he set forth clearly favors teams like the Patriots and Chiefs. You could have counted Buffalo in that mix, as he said he would love to play with Josh Allen, but they are out now that they traded for D.J. Moore.

DoubleDeluxe · Mar 8, 2026

rabidfireweasel said:
excellent thoughts.

Does the Packers recent resigning of Rhyan at 3-33 with 11M guaranteed change what you think Bitonio gets? Or do you think Rhyan’s versatility and youth makes him significantly more valuable?

2/12 seems low.

"Bitonio, who also was named a first-team All-Pro in 2021 and 2022, has spent all 12 of his NFL seasons thus far with the Cleveland Browns. Spotrac.com projects Bitonio to command a one-year contract worth around $13 million this offseason.

"He ranked third among all guards with a 96.4% pass block win rate last season, and his run block win rate of 72.3% was above average," Schatz added"

mgteich · Mar 8, 2026

I apologize. I don't predict AAV number because ultimately they are a function of the PR needs of the agent and the structure of the contract and the guaranteed money. Agents often add a couple of high priced years at the end to raise the AAV with real effect on the player or team.

Example
Signing bonus $20M, first year of salary guaranteed.
year 1 - $2m; cap $6M
year 2: $20M, cap $24M
year 3: $30M: cap $34M
year 4: $40M; cap $44M
year 5 $43M, cap $47M
=============
IS THIS A 5/$155, $31 AAV contract?
For me, it is 1 yr $22M contract; 2 years are guaranteed, it becomes a 2/$42M $21M AAV contract
Add guarantees that are guaranteed the beginning of the year before and the story is very differrent.
What if I add easy to reach incentives? Does that matter? It should.

ALTERNATIVE
What if Year 4 and 5 were void years. Then the AAV would be $24M if 3 years were guarantees.
What if the 3rd year were not guaranteed. Then, it is really a $21 AAAV contract with a team having the option for a 3rd year.

TO BE MORE CLEAR
If only 2 years are guaranteed, the salaries for years 3-5 aren't all that relevant. They could be $50M a year and not really affect the cost which is really 2/$42M

bakes781 · Mar 8, 2026

rabidfireweasel said:
excellent thoughts.

Does the Packers recent resigning of Rhyan at 3-33 with 11M guaranteed change what you think Bitonio gets? Or do you think Rhyan’s versatility and youth makes him significantly more valuable?

Bitonio is probably just looking to have 1 last shot at a Super Bowl. If that's not in the cards he probably retires.

jmt57 · Mar 8, 2026

FreeTedWilliams said:
Conor Barwin, FINALLY

and Adam Seward

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