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Disclaimer: The game is played on the field. This is literally the outcome of ****ing with numbers, so take it for what it's worth.
The "TL;DR version" first (a more "detailed" explanation and a summary of the methodology below):
Base Analysis
Seahawks 20
Patriots 20
But since Super Bowls can't end in a tie:
"Missing TO" Included (explained below)
Patriots 23
Seahawks 20
As soon as the Pats clinched their record 12th Super Bowl appearance, the pundits were saying they are going to get pasted by either the Rams or the Seahawks. Even now, there's virtually no shot being given by the media. It's strange, because a rational, intelligent viewer can plainly see this is actually a much closer game than the knuckle-draggers would have you believe.
So, back at it with the analysis that did predict the winners of SB51 and SB52...the latter of which was disappointing enough for me to not do SB53. But I'm back, and here's the basic rundown. The general idea was that I looked at the performances of each skill player on offense and how their performances varied according to the skill level of the defenses they faced. Since players on both teams demonstrated reliable adjustments according the defenses they faced, this was a somewhat easier process.
I had some concerns about how this would turn out initially because I did not account for all angles, recent play, and injuries. The injuries hurt Seattle more than they do us at this point (Charbonnet is actually a reasonably big loss for them). Recency multipliers (like I had suggested in the pre-game thread) were a zero-sum game, as both teams improved in ways that negated any advantage. Including that DID have the effect of driving the score down.
The final output is how player averages would look against a defenses of the caliber each will face in the Super Bowl (i.e. how Darnold, JSN, and company fared against comparable defenses to what the Pats have). The following are the projected stats:
Maye
22/32, 67.7%, 235 yards, 1TD, 1 Fumble Lost
Stevenson / Henderson / Maye
10 carries, 37 yards / 9 carries, 36 yards / 6 carries, 23 yards, 1 TD
Boutte
3 rec, 54 yards, 1TD
------------------------
Darnold
18/26, 69.6%, 210 yards, 1TD, 1INT
Walker
18 carries, 58 yards
JSN
7 rec, 90 yards, 1TD
------------------------
PATRIOTS 23 | 0 10 10 3
SEAHAWKS 20 | 7 6 7 0
------------------------
Basic Methodology
I'm not going to get into the weeds a whole lot, but the basic idea was to try and gauge how each team would do in the Super Bowl by breaking down their past performances at the lowest level possible. So instead of focusing on yards per game, or points per game, I started with the premise of yards per play per player. In the passing game, this meant yards per attempt, in the rushing game, this meant yards per carry, and in the receiving game, this meant yards per target (not reception).
After looking at a game-by-game breakdown of how each team performed, I analyzed the defense they faced while compiling those yards per play. To make a direct comparison, I looked at the yards per play for each defense they faced. I then calculated the deviation from the defense numbers; whether each player performed better or worse than what the defense usually allows.
From there, I needed to find the passing and rushing defenses that most approximated what each team will face on Sunday. I wanted 5-7 games for each player if at all possible. In some cases, the sample size is smaller, for which I allowed greater deviation during my adjustments. After isolating these games, I compared each player's yards per play against those defenses, took the difference (positive or negative) and then added those to what the opposing defense usually allows. I then multiplied that by the number of touches to get the stat lines for each skill player I evaluated.
After getting each player's individual totals, I reconciled the tallies of the RBs, WRs, and TEs with the QB stat line. After including the carries, I totaled the yards for each team. By this point, I needed to compare the total yards to the yards per point allowed by each defense to account for how many field goals we might expect on top of touchdowns.
"The Missing TO"
So, in the turnover battle, there is a strong signal in the numbers that there will be 3 turnovers in this game. The numbers bear out that Maye will have a fumble and Darnold will throw a pick, but there is no one player who would stand out as being a turnover candidate. The highest probability candidates for each team are Maye and Barner, but overall, Seattle's skill players are barely (and I mean BARELY) more liable to put the ball on the deck than the Pats players, so I went with Barner getting the ball punched out at some point. THAT is literally the only difference; a truly razor-thin margin.
A total stat breakdown:
Maye: 22/32, 67.7%, 235 yards, 1TD, 1 fumble
Stevenson: 10 carries, 37 yards
Henderson: 9 carries, 36 yards
Maye: 6 carries, 23 yards, 1 TD
Diggs: 5 rec, 48 yards
Boutte: 3 rec, 54 yards, 1 TD
Douglas: 2 rec, 28 yards
Hollins: 3 rec, 17 yards
Henry: 4 rec, 53 yards
Stevenson: 3 rec, 24 yards
Henderson: 3 rec, 11 yards
TOTAL OFFENSE: 332 yards
------------------------
Darnold: 18/26, 69.6%, 210 yards, 1TD, 1INT
Walker: 18 carries, 58 yards
Holani: 2 carries, 5 yards
JSN: 7 rec, 90 yards, 1TD
Kupp: 3 rec, 31 yards
Barner: 3 rec, 38 yards, 1 fumble
Shaheed: 3 rec, 35 yards
Walker: 2 rec, 17 yards
TOTAL OFFENSE: 273 yards
The "TL;DR version" first (a more "detailed" explanation and a summary of the methodology below):
Base Analysis
Seahawks 20
Patriots 20
But since Super Bowls can't end in a tie:
"Missing TO" Included (explained below)
Patriots 23
Seahawks 20
As soon as the Pats clinched their record 12th Super Bowl appearance, the pundits were saying they are going to get pasted by either the Rams or the Seahawks. Even now, there's virtually no shot being given by the media. It's strange, because a rational, intelligent viewer can plainly see this is actually a much closer game than the knuckle-draggers would have you believe.
So, back at it with the analysis that did predict the winners of SB51 and SB52...the latter of which was disappointing enough for me to not do SB53. But I'm back, and here's the basic rundown. The general idea was that I looked at the performances of each skill player on offense and how their performances varied according to the skill level of the defenses they faced. Since players on both teams demonstrated reliable adjustments according the defenses they faced, this was a somewhat easier process.
I had some concerns about how this would turn out initially because I did not account for all angles, recent play, and injuries. The injuries hurt Seattle more than they do us at this point (Charbonnet is actually a reasonably big loss for them). Recency multipliers (like I had suggested in the pre-game thread) were a zero-sum game, as both teams improved in ways that negated any advantage. Including that DID have the effect of driving the score down.
The final output is how player averages would look against a defenses of the caliber each will face in the Super Bowl (i.e. how Darnold, JSN, and company fared against comparable defenses to what the Pats have). The following are the projected stats:
Maye
22/32, 67.7%, 235 yards, 1TD, 1 Fumble Lost
Stevenson / Henderson / Maye
10 carries, 37 yards / 9 carries, 36 yards / 6 carries, 23 yards, 1 TD
Boutte
3 rec, 54 yards, 1TD
------------------------
Darnold
18/26, 69.6%, 210 yards, 1TD, 1INT
Walker
18 carries, 58 yards
JSN
7 rec, 90 yards, 1TD
------------------------
PATRIOTS 23 | 0 10 10 3
SEAHAWKS 20 | 7 6 7 0
------------------------
Basic Methodology
I'm not going to get into the weeds a whole lot, but the basic idea was to try and gauge how each team would do in the Super Bowl by breaking down their past performances at the lowest level possible. So instead of focusing on yards per game, or points per game, I started with the premise of yards per play per player. In the passing game, this meant yards per attempt, in the rushing game, this meant yards per carry, and in the receiving game, this meant yards per target (not reception).
After looking at a game-by-game breakdown of how each team performed, I analyzed the defense they faced while compiling those yards per play. To make a direct comparison, I looked at the yards per play for each defense they faced. I then calculated the deviation from the defense numbers; whether each player performed better or worse than what the defense usually allows.
From there, I needed to find the passing and rushing defenses that most approximated what each team will face on Sunday. I wanted 5-7 games for each player if at all possible. In some cases, the sample size is smaller, for which I allowed greater deviation during my adjustments. After isolating these games, I compared each player's yards per play against those defenses, took the difference (positive or negative) and then added those to what the opposing defense usually allows. I then multiplied that by the number of touches to get the stat lines for each skill player I evaluated.
After getting each player's individual totals, I reconciled the tallies of the RBs, WRs, and TEs with the QB stat line. After including the carries, I totaled the yards for each team. By this point, I needed to compare the total yards to the yards per point allowed by each defense to account for how many field goals we might expect on top of touchdowns.
"The Missing TO"
So, in the turnover battle, there is a strong signal in the numbers that there will be 3 turnovers in this game. The numbers bear out that Maye will have a fumble and Darnold will throw a pick, but there is no one player who would stand out as being a turnover candidate. The highest probability candidates for each team are Maye and Barner, but overall, Seattle's skill players are barely (and I mean BARELY) more liable to put the ball on the deck than the Pats players, so I went with Barner getting the ball punched out at some point. THAT is literally the only difference; a truly razor-thin margin.
A total stat breakdown:
Maye: 22/32, 67.7%, 235 yards, 1TD, 1 fumble
Stevenson: 10 carries, 37 yards
Henderson: 9 carries, 36 yards
Maye: 6 carries, 23 yards, 1 TD
Diggs: 5 rec, 48 yards
Boutte: 3 rec, 54 yards, 1 TD
Douglas: 2 rec, 28 yards
Hollins: 3 rec, 17 yards
Henry: 4 rec, 53 yards
Stevenson: 3 rec, 24 yards
Henderson: 3 rec, 11 yards
TOTAL OFFENSE: 332 yards
------------------------
Darnold: 18/26, 69.6%, 210 yards, 1TD, 1INT
Walker: 18 carries, 58 yards
Holani: 2 carries, 5 yards
JSN: 7 rec, 90 yards, 1TD
Kupp: 3 rec, 31 yards
Barner: 3 rec, 38 yards, 1 fumble
Shaheed: 3 rec, 35 yards
Walker: 2 rec, 17 yards
TOTAL OFFENSE: 273 yards
