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My question to those ready to crown the Bills


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You are right...everytime I think of Allen it gives me pause and I'm of the belief the Bills will win the division. QBs who run give us fits though, otherwise I'd say he's total garbage. I just think we'll lose all division winner games which will hand the division over.
We now have a quarterback who can run.
 
Conventional wisdom states that, with Tom Brady gone, Buffalo should be favored to win the AFCE. Conventional wisdom, as we know, is often incorrect.

The flaw in this logic comes from our tendency to measure the talent gap from Brady to Stidham, and to scale that talent gap up, as if the potential drop in QB play will result in a proportional drop in the quality of the team at large. The arithmetic is not so simple in a game in which 22 men take the field at once.

Compare the two teams, outside of the QB position. We have the edge in the defensive secondary, o line (if healthy) running game (if the o line is healthy) and special teams. The Bills have the edge in their defensive line, pass rush and receivers. Overall, I'd call it a push, with coaching pushing the needle in our favor.

Which brings us back to the quarterbacks. And to everyone expecting us to tank in 2020, I have a simple question: Is there a chance that Jarrett Stidham is as good as Josh Allen? Ask this to anyone ready to hand the division over to Buffalo, and I bet it will stop them in their tracks.
Kinda simple but the patriots had a better defense and the bills have josh Allen at Qb so it’s hard to believe they will be better on offense
 
There's a chance that Stidham is as good as Brady, Mahomes, Wilson, Rodgers and Brees.



What's your point, other than ridiculous homerism? Because it's not logic.


Buffalo was #2 in the NFL in points allowed last year.
Buffalo was #3 in the NFL in yards allowed last year.

Buffalo also added Diggs to Beasley and Brown from last year, improving the team's WRs. The Patriots, meanwhile, were busy losing 2 of their top 3 LBs.


Why is it so hard to just admit the obvious around here? As of right now,

  • The 12 win Patriots likely got worse.
  • The 10 win Bills likely got better.
  • The 7 win Jets likely got better, particularly if you adjust for the early season mono situation.
  • The 5 win Dolphins likely got better.
  • Given all the changes, this is a season where there stands an excellent chance of the Patriots not winning the AFCE.


Why is this problematic for you people to acknowledge?
Only because it’s wrong.
 
Shouldn't the Jills be aiming higher? Who cares about being favorites to win the division. Are they a SB contender like Baltimore and KC? That is a no.
 
The Buffalo fans that I know are only rivaled by Colts fans in their insane beliefs that the Patriots would never win anything without some orchestrated cheating, rule breaking that is apparently facilitated by the NFL, the CIA, and even by alien invaders.

Sure, they have suffered a good while, like (say) Detroit or Cleveland fans. But they are at another level of paranoid delusions about sinister plots to make the Patriots successful.

Well that's kind of natural really, ever since the Music City Miracle they've believed there's a vast conspiracy to keep the Bills from winning anything, their angst againsst the Patriots is just a different verse of the same song.
 
There's a chance that Stidham is as good as Brady, Mahomes, Wilson, Rodgers and Brees.



What's your point, other than ridiculous homerism? Because it's not logic.


Buffalo was #2 in the NFL in points allowed last year.
Buffalo was #3 in the NFL in yards allowed last year.

Buffalo also added Diggs to Beasley and Brown from last year, improving the team's WRs. The Patriots, meanwhile, were busy losing 2 of their top 3 LBs.


Why is it so hard to just admit the obvious around here? As of right now,

  • The 12 win Patriots likely got worse.
  • The 10 win Bills likely got better.
  • The 7 win Jets likely got better, particularly if you adjust for the early season mono situation.
  • The 5 win Dolphins likely got better.
  • Given all the changes, this is a season where there stands an excellent chance of the Patriots not winning the AFCE.


Why is this problematic for you people to acknowledge?
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I certainly don't intend on conceding a damn thing until football is actually being played.
 
1*-lGBf64Y1E0c4LdFPgHQPQ.jpeg


I certainly don't intend on conceding a damn thing until football is actually being played.

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You're a football fan looking at your team's prospects for the upcoming season. You're not a British soldier fighting for the homeland, trying to keep your family and nation from being conquered by the Germans.
 
Saw this today randomly.



This was one of those games that just gets lost in the annals of time, at least for me. I know I watched it but a lot of those early season Bills games blend in together.

Brady 21-27, 252 3TDs. I know Moss is open on this but still there are four defenders in the vicinity, it's beautiful. Superb pass by Brady, watch him lead Moss just a bit to where only he can catch it. You look at Mahomes today and the noobs think he's a better passer than Brady ever was but then you bust out a gem like this that is just another random dime from a decade ago which suffers from recency bias.

Bills fans had to deal with this time and again, twice a year. I'm not saying I feel bad for them but I can't imagine the feeling of despair to have to be a sports fan and have the Patriots in the same division for two decades.


If Tampa fans think they are getting 2010 Brady then they are delusional...
 
Brady will throw over 4000 yards in that offense and more than 35 tds .

He threw for over 4000 yards last year.

He’ll be a good QB with decent numbers if he stays healthy. We’ll see.
 
The OP makes a good point about the drop-off from TB and Stidham being made up by the other phases of the game, D and ST. Plus TB had dropped off a bit in the later years, or last one or two anyway. The hard part to get past is TB was as clutch as the clutchest ever. With TB I never felt out of the game, we don't know if Stidham can take the team from the 25 down to a TD with two minutes remaining to win or even get in FG for the win. That's where the anxiety comes from. That said Im 100% on Team Stidham from everything I hear and read about him.
 
Brady will throw over 4000 yards in that offense and more than 35 tds .

4000 yards would probably put him in the top 10, which is doable. I would think 4500 yards is a bit of a stretch and 5000 yards unrealistic. He's got a lot of great weapons, but it'll take a couple of months for that offense to get in sync. 35 TDS would be put him at or near the top of the league, which I can't see.
 
I think the sexy pick was [Your Non-Patriots Guess Here,] which by consensus means Bills.

I for one look forward to what Bill Belichick can do with a higher-drafted QB. He did great with the JAG that held Brian Griese's clipboard.
 
4000 yards would probably put him in the top 10, which is doable. I would think 4500 yards is a bit of a stretch and 5000 yards unrealistic. He's got a lot of great weapons, but it'll take a couple of months for that offense to get in sync. 35 TDS would be put him at or near the top of the league, which I can't see.

I see it a different way. To me the only thing that keeps Brady from throwing 35 TDs is injury to him or one of his top 3 weapons (or COVID affecting the number of games played). Obviously given his age that’s a distinct possibility. But if he makes it through the season unscathed I think he puts up big numbers.

If anyone wants to place a friendly wager on that closer to the start of the season, I’m open to it.
 
If the Patriots are out, I will be cheering for the Bills to win a Super Bowl. Only division rival I don't hate. Great fans there and they've been through a lot with their team. They remind me of us from back in the day.

With that said no I'm not close to ready to concede the division. Last season I thought they were vulnerable against the run and there's the Josh Allen factor too. They have a very good secondary but ours is better.

no not really...i don't recall ever squirting ketchup and mustard all over myself and throwing myself onto a flaming picnic table.
 
I see it a different way. To me the only thing that keeps Brady from throwing 35 TDs is injury to him or one of his top 3 weapons (or COVID affecting the number of games played). Obviously given his age that’s a distinct possibility. But if he makes it through the season unscathed I think he puts up big numbers.

If anyone wants to place a friendly wager on that closer to the start of the season, I’m open to it.
He has thrown for 35 tds once in the last 8 years (36) and will be 43 years old. He’s been under 30 3 of the last 4 years. There is no way he is throwing for 35 TDS.
 
He has thrown for 35 tds once in the last 8 years (36) and will be 43 years old. He’s been under 30 3 of the last 4 years. There is no way he is throwing for 35 TDS.

Even Mahomes only got 26 TDs last year. Brady hasn't hit 30+ TDs since 2017, which was his last great statistical year. Don't get me wrong, he CAN be what Joe Montana did to the Chiefs in 1992 and guide him into the playoffs. I just don't think he's going to put up fantasy numbers right away.
 
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