I predicted a loss this week. Sadly I was correct. If these 2 teams play in the playoffs I predict a Patriots win for a lot of reasons no matter where the game is. Here they are.
#1 Gronk - The Patriots seemed unwilling to risk Gronk this game. I didn't see them go over the middle with him once. I think the lack of that call was intentional. You can't beat the Jags unless you go for that 20 yard chunk plays with Gronk. They will do it in the playoffs.
#2 Edelman - Edelman makes the whole offense so much better. puts Hogan on the #2 CB and Dorsett on the #3 CB. That makes a huge difference. He changes the way the defense has to play a fair amount.
#3 The Jags won't be better . They were without Fournette. Frankly I think his impact is overrated. They couldn't run on us all that well with him and they couldn't without him. He is not the RB we need to worry about. We need to worry about the RBs who catch passes. Any down Fournette is in over one of those guys is actually better for the Patriots honestly. That sounds like an odd thing to say, but it's true.
#4 The D will be better - Flowers and Chung leaving the game hurt. Bentley has room to improve. Rowe will have a better day then this.
#5 Injuries - I never wish injuries on a team (maybe a few truly scumbag players). But I am a man who believes that things balance out in the the long run. The Jags were virtually injury free last year with every key player on defense. I don't believe they reach the end of the year entirely intact. That simply goes against the laws of probability.
#6 The Jags won't play this well again - Their OL was amazing. Bortles made a lot of very good passes. Their WRs made insane catches. basically we got their A game. It is unlikely we will need to face it two time in a row.
#7 The Pats held a lot back - I don't think the Jags showed everything they had, but it was clear the Patriots weren't interested in showing anything. They held a lot of plays in reserve. They didn't even go hurry up much I think which was surprising.
I know it is early but i am calling it now. If these 2 teams play again the Pats win.