Compensatory picks announced

After reading this thread I read the Barnwelll thread which said the Patriots' two best selections from the 2015 draft were actually fourth-rounders (Trey Flowers, Shaq Mason). All draft picks are lottery tickets. Maybe this one will hit.

Bill Lee said:

After reading this thread I read the Barnwelll thread which said the Patriots' two best selections from the 2015 draft were actually fourth-rounders (Trey Flowers, Shaq Mason). All draft picks are lottery tickets. Maybe this one will hit.

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The Pats have actually done fairly well with 4th rounders over the years ... numerous decent contributors/supporting cast members - around 50% in that regard - plus Gostkowski, Asante Samuel.

ashley1992 said:

Mike Reiss‏Verified account @MikeReiss 54m54 minutes ago
Patriots are awarded a fourth-round compensatory draft pick (136), the NFL announces. So total picks as of now for Patriots: 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 6.

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I’m sure Bill will end up acquiring a 5th and 7th along the way...

We have a 2 instead of a 5, 7 and a 5/6 compensation pick. There is little to whine about. That can wait until after we disagree with the picks.

ashley1992 said:

Mike Reiss‏Verified account @MikeReiss 54m54 minutes ago
Patriots are awarded a fourth-round compensatory draft pick (136), the NFL announces. So total picks as of now for Patriots: 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 6.

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With how close our first is to the 49ers second I would almost prefer to trade the first round pick for another 2nd and 3rd. That is obviously unless someone unexpected falls down to 31. But with how the draft seems so far the value will once again be the 2nd and 3rd round. The more picks around there the better.

luuked said:

With how close our first is to the 49ers second I would almost prefer to trade the first round pick for another 2nd and 3rd. That is obviously unless someone unexpected falls down to 31. But with how the draft seems so far the value will once again be the 2nd and 3rd round. The more picks around there the better.

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The value in a first is the 5th year option. That being said, a trade down is likely. However, it may be more likely that we trade back from our 2nd pick.

mgteich said:

The value in a first is the 5th year option. That being said, a trade down is likely. However, it may be more likely that we trade back from our 2nd pick.

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I take the shot at 2 players over a single player with a fifth year option. This looks like one of those drafts where the difference between pick 15 and pick 31 is bigger than between pick 31 and pick 100.

luuked said:

I take the shot at 2 players over a single player with a fifth year option.

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You want that 5th year over the extra pick this time around, especially if the first round pick is a QB.

Deus Irae said:

You want that 5th year over the extra pick this time around, especially if the first round pick is a QB.

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Yes, a QB would definitely be a different story. For almost everything else I personally would rather have one more body than an extra year far into the future. But of course YMMV..

Meh. 7th rounders are such throw away picks most of the time.

Granted we did get Edelman in that round. But have any other picks from that round worked out? I just don’t see the value in trying to acquire a bunch of 7ths.

luuked said:

I take the shot at 2 players over a single player with a fifth year option. This looks like one of those drafts where the difference between pick 15 and pick 31 is bigger than between pick 31 and pick 100.

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Then trade our 2nd pick, not our first.

Depending on who we trade with and the number of steps, 43 could likely be turned into a late 2nd, 3rd, and a 5th and 7th. The value is right.

The point we are making is that the 5th year option is very valuable, presuming that we can find a player worth the pick.

Bill Lee said:

After reading this thread I read the Barnwelll thread which said the Patriots' two best selections from the 2015 draft were actually fourth-rounders (Trey Flowers, Shaq Mason). All draft picks are lottery tickets. Maybe this one will hit.

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Flowers is apparently underrated, even by some of our own fans. He screams a classic BB mid rd pick. Even fans from other fanbases apparently have no idea who he is, which is comical because he's outproduced and been the better pllayer than #6 overall pick in that draft and "steal", Leonard Williams.

All I can say is, if BB drafted a "steal" at #6 overall and that was the return, I would be pissed off.

luuked said:

With how close our first is to the 49ers second I would almost prefer to trade the first round pick for another 2nd and 3rd. That is obviously unless someone unexpected falls down to 31. But with how the draft seems so far the value will once again be the 2nd and 3rd round. The more picks around there the better.

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Now that we have the full slate of draft picks (except for KCY's deals on Alex Smith and Marcus Peters), we can start making some realistic pick-for-picks trade possibilities.

DraftTek has the entire draft trade chart in spreadsheet format here:

2018 NFL Draft Trade Value Chart

For example, the Pats could trade the #31 (600) to the Chargers for their #48 (420) + #84 (170) + #191 (14.6, 6th round) = 600 for 604.6

@mgteich

An example with the #41 (490), might be (again) the Chargers #48 (420) + #119 (56, 4th round) + #191 (14.6, 6th round) = 490 for 490.6

Joey007 said:

Meh. 7th rounders are such throw away picks most of the time.

Granted we did get Edelman in that round. But have any other picks from that round worked out? I just don’t see the value in trying to acquire a bunch of 7ths.

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You're correct. There typically isn't a lot of direct derived from a 7th round pick. The Pats have picked up:

Patrick Pass, FB, 2000
David Givens, 2002
Tully Banta-Cain, 2003
Matt Cassell, 2005
Brandon Deaderick, 2010
Alfonzo Dennard, 2012

and that's about it.

However, they can be "deal sweeteners" to throw at teams that want to trade up into a Pats' slot. For instance, a team that wants the Pats #31 might have to give up four picks to make the point value close to even, so the Pats might give them back a 7th to get it done.

But 7th-rounders are mostly useful for pre-emptively securing the rights to a prospect who otherwise might be a UDFA and, thus, avoid have to bid against other teams for him.

It actually quite often works out that the signing bonus money that a team needs to give to a UDFA to persuade him to sign with the Pats rather than with some other team, raises the UDFA's compensation above that of a 7th-round pick. It might only be $100k or so, but that $100k comes out of the team's CBA-limited rookie-pool allotment and, thus, can't be used to "bribe" another UDFA.

add Edelman, QB/WR 2009

maineman209 said:

You're correct. There typically isn't a lot of direct derived from a 7th round pick. The Pats have picked up:

Patrick Pass, FB, 2000
David Givens, 2002
Tully Banta-Cain, 2003
Matt Cassell, 2005
Brandon Deaderick, 2010
Alfonzo Dennard, 2012

and that's about it.

However, they can be "deal sweeteners" to throw at teams that want to trade up into a Pats' slot. For instance, a team that wants the Pats #31 might have to give up four picks to make the point value close to even, so the Pats might give them back a 7th to get it done.

But 7th-rounders are mostly useful for pre-emptively securing the rights to a prospect who otherwise might be a UDFA and, thus, avoid have to bid against other teams for him.

It actually quite often works out that the signing bonus money that a team needs to give to a UDFA to persuade him to sign with the Pats rather than with some other team, raises the UDFA's compensation above that of a 7th-round pick. It might only be $100k or so, but that $100k comes out of the team's CBA-limited rookie-pool allotment and, thus, can't be used to "bribe" another UDFA.

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maineman209 said:

You're correct. There typically isn't a lot of direct derived from a 7th round pick. The Pats have picked up:

Patrick Pass, FB, 2000
David Givens, 2002
Tully Banta-Cain, 2003
Matt Cassell, 2005
Brandon Deaderick, 2010
Alfonzo Dennard, 2012

and that's about it.

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Actually impressed, and a bit surprised on how often we hit on 7th rounders in the 2000’s. Had forgotten about Givens and Cassell. Even Banta-Cain had some productivity for us.

In this decade however, take out a promising rookie season from Dennard, and there’s really not much to show for.

Joey007 said:

Actually impressed, and a bit surprised on how often we hit on 7th rounders in the 2000’s. Had forgotten about Givens and Cassell. Even Banta-Cain had some productivity for us.

In this decade however, take out a promising rookie season from Dennard, and there’s really not much to show for.

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Well, that's six players out of (IIRC) 16 or so 7th-round picks. Still not an awful batting average, though.

I strongly disagree. We should discuss the expected batting average by draft position. I suspect that we will do so before the draft.

IMHO, getting just Edelman and Givens with 16 7th rounders is well better than expected. Let's put in another way. What is likelihood of landing a player of this caliber on the 7th? Is it more than 10%. I don't think so. Having one chance in 3 of getting a solid contributor in the 7th is excellent work.

maineman209 said:

Well, that's six players out of (IIRC) 16 or so 7th-round picks. Still not an awful batting average, though.

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mgteich said:

I strongly disagree. We should discuss the expected batting average by draft position. I suspect that we will do so before the draft.

IMHO, getting just Edelman and Givens with 16 7th rounders is well better than expected. Let's put in another way. What is likelihood of landing a player of this caliber on the 7th? Is it more than 10%. I don't think so. Having one chance in 3 of getting a solid contributor in the 7th is excellent work.

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I’m not sure if I’m critiquing our teams ability to draft in the 7th. While I don’t think the stat 6/16 is accurate (we had a good 3 7ths other than Edelman in 09 that did nothing) but regardless, we are generally a very good late round drafting team compared to the rest..

I’m more along the lines of critiquing 7th round picks in general, and how very few become relevant impact players. I doubt the stat would be even 10% for most teams.

I still stick with the point that 7th rounders aren’t of high value. I’m fine with trading down, but don’t see the value of trading down essentially to acquire a bunch of 7ths.

Sort of a quality vs. quantity type of situation.

luuked said:

With how close our first is to the 49ers second I would almost prefer to trade the first round pick for another 2nd and 3rd. That is obviously unless someone unexpected falls down to 31. But with how the draft seems so far the value will once again be the 2nd and 3rd round. The more picks around there the better.

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We’ve certainly seen Belichick go this route before. In your scenario, we would then have 3 second rounders and 2 third rounders.