Recent content by silentone

For first 2 rounds at least, BPA at premium position that also takes supply of players available at each premium position into consideration. Premium positions include ER, OT, WR, CB, possibly DT. Avoid RB, TE, S, LB. The way the draft sets up, maybe it ends up OT then ER rounds 1 and 2. But...

I’ve been thinking about a structural inefficiency in how the NFL values RBs vs WRs, and I’m a little surprised it doesn’t get talked about more. We all know the basics: Very good to great WRs get paid in the vicinity of $25mm-$40mm/year Very good to great RBs get paid in the vicinity of...

I wouldn't want either due to paying twice (draft capital and salary) but if you made me choose, I'd go with Brown - Brown costs a lot less ($23, $23, $28, $29 vs $38, $36, $30) source sportrac - Crosby (maybe) failed physical and just had menicus surgery in Jan - Brown could have huge impact on...

Some draft thoughts, I think the real goal of the draft is to create as much surplus value as possible, ie getting production from a rookie contract that would otherwise cost a lot on the veteran market. Because of that, it makes sense to prioritize premium salary positions, especially early...

One thing I didn’t really appreciate until recently is how much draft picks may have become more valuable over time because of salary cap growth. Over the past decade the NFL salary cap has gone up about 94% (roughly $155M in 2016 to about $301M in 2026). But rookie contracts under the draft...

If you liked the trade for the Ravens then you can hang your hat on they are now the AFC favorite. If you didn't like the trade for the Ravens, you can hang your hat on their odds of winning the Superbowl only increased from 7.69% (+1,200) to 9.09% (+1,000), meaning still 91% chance they don't...

Stunned at the compensation and that it was the Ravens of all teams Valuable 14th pick, a first next year For a player... coming off recent knee surgery for torn meniscus soon to be 29 likely seeking an extension I would think reduces likelihood Patriots trade for AJ Brown Increases the chance...

Hi KCSVEN and thanks for your thoughts which I think are valid points. I agree, you realistically need 3-5 elite players (and a bunch of good but not elite players 10-15?). The Patriots have Maye and will likely extend Gonzalez (and people can debate if he's elite and core to a championship or...

Thanks n1997y. Appreciate your thoughtful response and agree that surplus value or value creation can come from multiple sources and in different shapes and sizes. It's fun thinking about roster construction, especially this time if year.

The NFL is basically a $300mm optimization problem. The teams that generally contend are the ones that get the most production out of that $300mm. The biggest way teams created surplus value is through rookie contracts, especially first and second round picks. Those players can often produce...

Thanks for helping better understand this. I didn't realize that NFL teams use PFF, it sounds like, primarily for the stat aggregation.

Hi Tommy D - I enjoy PFF but have no idea as to its accuracy. However, it's my understanding that all 32 NFL teams pay real money ($150k? per team) and it's also used by 130 FBS programs. If that is true, it would seem there is some real value add else they wouldn't pay, right? I'm curious if...

Hi mayoclinic - I was under the impression that the Patriots would take a $9mm dead cap hit in 2026 if they either traded him (as they did yesterday) or cut him at the end of this season. Maybe I have it wrong, but I don't think this trade frees up cap space in 2026 assuming they would just...

Thanks 203Pat, this is really helpful as I hadn't consired injury risk. Aside from the injury risk, am I right that it made no financial difference if the Pats traded him now or cut him at the end of the season, they would take a 2026 cap hit of $9mm which is the $18mm signing basis prorated...

I'm excited to keep following this thread (as well as the other positional draft threads) to see how your lists look as the draft gets nearer. Thank you for all your work and willingness to share. Love your thoughts on any of the following. - Safeties get paid some of the lowest average...