The Biggest Bust (Harry vs Polk)

[PatsFan2]

the interesting part about drafting Polk, is that his WR coach, T Hughes, was also on the offensive staff at the U of Washington in 2023. So Hughes had intimate knowledge on Polk. and the 3 seasons prior to being at the U of Wash, Highes was an offensive assnt under Bill.

Really happy Hughes is not our WR Coach he seems kinda useless.

 

[Rob0729]

I never said he got starter money, in fact I said he got a one year “show me” deal. They want to see another year of him impressing as a deep threat to ensure he isn’t a flash in the pan.

None of which changes him running with Mahomes and the ones in training camp.

Why would you give a young guy who was on your roster last year and given a starting job for a third of a season because one of your starters was suspended need a prove it deal? Wasn't his one year contract last year a prove it contract?

 

[Wozzy]

Why would you give a young guy who was on your roster last year and given a starting job for a third of a season because one of your starters was suspended need a prove it deal? Wasn't his one year contract last year a prove it contract?

He’s had issues staying healthy, he still has prove it for a full season. If he does and KC believes it’s a match, they may extend him longer next time.

He wants to be there, even if he received a similar offer elsewhere, or better money to join a dysfunctional mess he sees opportunity there and is getting a nice one year payday on a proven winner.

 

[Rob0729]

We remember things 100% differently.

I forget who it was, but there was one poster here who HATED the Harry pick, and he called everyone out by reposting the Harry draft day thread. This place was 99% positive on taking Harry that day.

Polk had immediate detractors. Heck, I posted 3x on Polk starting in the draft threads in January, long before I even knew the Patriots would pick him.

The point stands however that most people thought Harry was going right where the Patriots took him:



LaCanfora had him at 22: 2019 NFL Mock Draft by Jason La Canfora (CBS) | NFL Mock Draft Database

By comparison, this is J'Lynn Polk:



This is AJ Brown:

You are misrepresenting what I said.

I said there were a lot of people who wanted Samuel or Brown over Harry. Based on your charts, Brown was ranked higher in mock drafts at the time of the draft than Harry. You didn't list Samuel, but he was probably higher than both Brown and Harry. Your own data backs up my claim. It wasn't that people hated Harry. People thought he was a good player. It was that people would have preferred Brown or Samuel and I remember clearly that was a strong sentiment on this board.

Second, I said there were people who liked the Polk pick. I didn't say it was universal. I provided you "experts" who gave the pick good grades. I admit there were plenty of people who didn't like the pick.

 

[203Pat]

Ahh yes, the tried and true "If he is still in the league he isn't a bust" argument the homers love to bust out to defend Bill's picks. A second round pick who netted us 39 catches, 385 yards, and 2 TD's in 3 years here isn't a bust because he gets elevated on someone else's depth chart when everyone in front of him is in jail or injured.

 

[203Pat]

If this is just about wide outs its polk by a mile.

If you're comparing who was the worse receiver it is Polk by a mile (and that is saying something because Harry was awful) but if you're comparing impact with all things considered, then it has to be Harry.

 

[Wozzy]

Ahh yes, the tried and true "If he is still in the league he isn't a bust" argument the homers love to bust out to defend Bill's picks. A second round pick who netted us 39 catches, 385 yards, and 2 TD's in 3 years here isn't a bust because he gets elevated on someone else's depth chart when everyone in front of him is in jail or injured.

Thornton wasn’t a Bill pick, he was a collaboration pick.

Thornton also showed production as a deep threat, he showed competence. I don’t care about his draft position or who took him. That’s a lot more relevant to the conversation than “he’s still in the league.”

He’s running with the Chiefs ones, I know that’s a problem for self hating Pats fans here who want to self flagellate over the WR position.



Lastly… Bill doesn’t live rent free in my head like you, he doesn’t color my every post and thought.

 

[Diffs4]

The 10 highest draft picks the Pats have spent on WR in the past 2 decades:

1. N'Keal Harry. 2019, #32.
2. Chad Jackson. 2006, #36 (trade up).
3. Ja'Lynn Polk. 2024, #37.
4. Tyquan Thornton. 2022, #50.
5. Aaron Dobson. 2013, #59.
6. Kyle Williams. 2025, #69.
7. Brandon Tate. 2009, #83.
8. Taylor Price. 2010, #90.
9. Josh Boyce. 2013, #102.
10. Javon Baker. 2024, #110.

What a ****ty list. What stands out to me is how little draft capital they have spent on this position. The last pick of the first round and four second round draft picks in 20 years? That must be the least draft capital any team has spent on this position in the same time period. A byproduct of having the best QB in the history of football but still shocking to see it listed like this.

 

[Wozzy]

What a ****ty list. What stands out to me is how little draft capital they have spent on this position. The last pick of the first round and four second round draft picks in 20 years? That must be the least draft capital any team has spent on this position in the same time period. A byproduct of having the best QB in the history of football but still shocking to see it listed like this.

Also a byproduct of a team builder who understood the failure rate among rookie WR’s was higher than just about any position.

They track draft data, Bill preferred vets.

 

[PatsFan2]

What a ****ty list. What stands out to me is how little draft capital they have spent on this position. The last pick of the first round and four second round draft picks in 20 years? That must be the least draft capital any team has spent on this position in the same time period. A byproduct of having the best QB in the history of football but still shocking to see it listed like this.

Interesting take I never really thought about it like that. You're right other than Harry and Jackson...it's really meager Draft capital spent on the position: compared to other Teams.

 

[Rob0729]

Thornton wasn’t a Bill pick, he was a collaboration pick.

Thornton also showed production as a deep threat, he showed competence. I don’t care about his draft position or who took him. That’s a lot more relevant to the conversation than “he’s still in the league.”

He’s running with the Chiefs ones, I know that’s a problem for self hating Pats fans here who want to self flagellate over the WR position.



Lastly… Bill doesn’t live rent free in my head like you, he doesn’t color my every post and thought.

I don't know if you are winning this argument like you think you are. We can agree that Thornton is better than Harry. You are saying Thornton wasn't solely a Belichick pick, but we know Belichick went against his staff to draft Harry. That is pretty damning for Belichick.

And you seem to want to fight anyone on this board who has the slightest criticism about Belichick. So you might want to do self reflection of who actually has Belichick rent free in their head.

 

[BTTA]

Our expectations of hits in the draft are driven by our needs, not be data.
https://www.drafthistory.com/positions/wr.html

Dynasty Wide Receiver Hit Rates By Rounds

I wanted to see if the NFL has improved at drafting based on rounds over the past 14 seasons. I split it into the first seven years and the last seven years, but I did not include 2025 because rookies typically take a couple of years to produce. More wide receivers have been drafted in Round 1...

dynastyfootballfactory.com

 

[upstater1]

You are misrepresenting what I said.

I said there were a lot of people who wanted Samuel or Brown over Harry. Based on your charts, Brown was ranked higher in mock drafts at the time of the draft than Harry. You didn't list Samuel, but he was probably higher than both Brown and Harry. Your own data backs up my claim. It wasn't that people hated Harry. People thought he was a good player. It was that people would have preferred Brown or Samuel and I remember clearly that was a strong sentiment on this board.

Second, I said there were people who liked the Polk pick. I didn't say it was universal. I provided you "experts" who gave the pick good grades. I admit there were plenty of people who didn't like the pick.

I'm not misrepresenting it at all.

You wrote this and this is what I'm responding to:

Rob: "A lot of people liked the Polk pick at the time. Probably more than people liked Harry."

Like I said, this is the total opposite of what I remembered. The Harry thread was almost entirely positive except for one person.

The Polk thread had a lot of detractors.

As for who was ranked higher, they were 36 and 38 at the end, but AJ came up from the 40s while Harry dropped down from 20, where LaCanfora had him.

Polk was in the 70s and rose to the mid 60s!

Now, if you were to tell me these compilations of the mocks don't mean that much, that's another discussion, because after all, Metcalf was expected to go in the teens. But the point stands that within the general consensus of people who both scout and study the draft, Harry went where he was expected, and about half the mocks preferred Harry to AJ.

Polk on the other hand was ticketed for very late in the 2nd or early 3rd.

This is Deebo by the way, well below Harry:



Hindsight is always 20/20, because there were a lot of busts ranked ahead of Deebo, 4 of them!

 

[upstater1]

Also a byproduct of a team builder who understood the failure rate among rookie WR’s was higher than just about any position.

They track draft data, Bill preferred vets.

The failure rate is certainly higher.

1 out of 3 premium picks make it. Much worse in the later rounds.

Even in the 2019 draft that we're talking about, 6 of the 9 WRs taken in the first 2 rounds busted. All 8 of those guys were taken before Metcalf.

 

[Rob0729]

I'm not misrepresenting it at all.

You wrote this and this is what I'm responding to:

Rob: "A lot of people liked the Polk pick at the time. Probably more than people liked Harry."

Like I said, this is the total opposite of what I remembered. The Harry thread was almost entirely positive except for one person.

The Polk thread had a lot of detractors.

As for who was ranked higher, they were 36 and 38 at the end, but AJ came up from the 40s while Harry dropped down from 20, where LaCanfora had him.

Polk was in the 70s and rose to the mid 60s!

Now, if you were to tell me these compilations of the mocks don't mean that much, that's another discussion, because after all, Metcalf was expected to go in the teens. But the point stands that within the general consensus of people who both scout and study the draft, Harry went where he was expected, and about half the mocks preferred Harry to AJ.

Polk on the other hand was ticketed for very late in the 2nd or early 3rd.

This is Deebo by the way, well below Harry:



Hindsight is always 20/20, because there were a lot of busts ranked ahead of Deebo, 4 of them!

I mispoke when I said that. I meant people were upset the Pats didn't take Brown over Harry. I didn't mean that they thought more of Harry than they did of Polk. I think there were more people upset they took Harry over Brown than they were that the Pats took Polk. The whole McConkey thing was all hindsight since he was ranked pretty low himself because of his injury history. The way I wrote it in that post was completely wrong.

As for Deebo, I can't remember back to that draft in terms of mock drafts. I thought he was ranked higher.

 

[Thunderhead]

Two of my least favorite athletes in any sport of my lifetime.

 

[Wozzy]

I don't know if you are winning this argument like you think you are. We can agree that Thornton is better than Harry. You are saying Thornton wasn't solely a Belichick pick, but we know Belichick went against his staff to draft Harry. That is pretty damning for Belichick.

And you seem to want to fight anyone on this board who has the slightest criticism about Belichick. So you might want to do self reflection of who actually has Belichick rent free in their head.

I never mentioned Belichick, somebody passively aggressively responding to me did.

 

[Wozzy]

The failure rate is certainly higher.

1 out of 3 premium picks make it. Much worse in the later rounds.

Even in the 2019 draft that we're talking about, 6 of the 9 WRs taken in the first 2 rounds busted. All 8 of those guys were taken before Metcalf.

Look at 2024’s draft, the 4th overall pick and first WR taken Marvin Harrison Jr is being called a “bust.”

Better not to risk high picks on the position.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Now, if you were to tell me these compilations of the mocks don't mean that much, that's another discussion, because after all, Metcalf was expected to go in the teens. But the point stands that within the general consensus of people who both scout and study the draft, Harry went where he was expected, and about half the mocks preferred Harry to AJ.

No they didn't. The rankings were consistently Hollywood Brown, Metcalf, AJ Brown, Samuel, Harry. While they were all projected to be 1st round picks, it was a shock Harry leapfrogged the others to be the 2nd WR taken. He was the classic "draft riser" after he matched Metcalf's bench presses and ran a 4.5 40 time. The workout with McDaniels and BB's connection with Herm Edwards sealed the deal. The Pats scouts wanted AJ Brown and were irate when BB went rogue to take Harry.

As for Deebo, I can't remember back to that draft in terms of mock drafts. I thought he was ranked higher.

He was.

 

[203Pat]

Thornton wasn’t a Bill pick, he was a collaboration pick.

Thornton also showed production as a deep threat, he showed competence. I don’t care about his draft position or who took him. That’s a lot more relevant to the conversation than “he’s still in the league.”

He’s running with the Chiefs ones, I know that’s a problem for self hating Pats fans here who want to self flagellate over the WR position.



Lastly… Bill doesn’t live rent free in my head like you, he doesn’t color my every post and thought.

Wozzy's school of draft review.
Bad pick: collaboration
Good Pick: Bill

I care about the New England Patriots and while with the New England Patriots he showed no competence in regards to being a deep threat. He is also going to be what he was here, the 4th option. He is basically sitting behind Kelce, Rice, and Worthy in the pecking order so I don’t know why you are pumping his tires. Either way, what he does elsewhere doesn't make him a better pick here. If anything Bill couldn't get as much out of him as Reid has so either way Bill failed.