Our Defense is NOT Loaded; our BACKUPS are weak.

[BTTA]

Well, we've got stats galore here. So if I understand, on average, 13+ of the 53 man roster is UDFA, and 0 or 1 plays any significant time.

 

[Wozzy]

You're jumping all over the place. I'm only following your anecdotal examples who are really examples making my argument.

You still haven't answered. How many rookie UFA's are factors as position players, backup or otherwise, a year in the NFL?

Answer: Less than 20 out of about 500. Less than 1 per team.

That's the only stat that matters when discussing UFA's as potential position backups.

Depth is depth, whether it’s the immediate backup, or the guy behind him waiting on the practice squad for his opportunity.

Like I said originally, Muma and Obiazor are the first line of rotation depth. We’ll see if the two undrafted guys make an impression. If so, they’ll be the 3rd like of depth. I never said undrafted guys had to play a ton of snaps or put a number on it, you did… they could make difference in case of injury, on special teams or just make an impression for the future.

 

[Wozzy]

Well, we've got stats galore here. So if I understand, on average, 13+ of the 53 man roster is UDFA, and 0 or 1 plays any significant time.

Pats had 17 UDFA’s contribute last year.

Charles Woods
Jack Westover
Leonard Taylor
Robert Spillane
Brenden Schooler
Elijah Ponder
Jeremiah Pharms
Dell Pettus
D'Ernest Johnson
Terrell Jennings
Eric Gregory
Jack Gibbens
Christian Elliss
Cory Durden
CJ Dippre
Efton Chism
Ben Brown

I would say having a good backup to the backup pushing everyone ahead of him is quality depth. Playing a lot was never mentioned, not by me anyway.

That being said, it happens….

Phillip Lindsay became the first undrafted rookie in NFL history to rush for over 1,000 yards in his debut season.

Wes Welker was immediately good as a punt and kick returner, 2nd in the NFL in yards in both return stats. The notion he did “nothing” as a rookie is outright wrong.

Tony Romo won the backup job his rookie season.

Adam Vinatieri only became the best kicker in history.

 

[mgteich]

We certainly need to distinguish rookie UDFA's from those UDFA's who have eventually made an NFL team and have been contributors.
=======
1) The hope is that we sign ONE UDFA who can contribute as a backup (usually after injuries) in his rookie year. The expectation is that one or two make the 53 and have few reps as a rookie. Ponder was a fine success last year.

2) The hope is that 1-3 of our rookie UDFA's make the Practice Squad. These players might even be elevated later in the year or even be permanently promoted to the roster. Swinson is an example.

3) Hopefully, some of the UDFA's who are developed on the Practice Squad (and not poached) make the team in their 2nd or 3rd and become contributors or even end of the roster emergency players. One or two seem to make the 53 each year.

4) Successful teams pick up UDFA's who have not succeeded elsewhere. A successful example is Durden.

5) Finally, teams can pick up UDFA's who have played regularly, perhaps with some success, for several years in the league. A successful example here is Spillane.

6) As an aside, there is a 6th category: UDFA's who spend their rookie years on IR. Theoretically, they might make the 53 and become contributor in their 2nd year. I don't think that we have this situation on the patriots, certainly no this century.

 

[Family]

1) The hope is that we sign ONE UDFA who can contribute as a backup (usually after injuries) in his rookie year. The expectation is that one or two make the 53 and have few reps as a rookie.

AI ran CBS/TruMedia and PFF stats of UFA rookies since 2015 who have played 100 or more snaps at a position, and the result was 10-15 players qualified per year in the ENTIRE LEAGUE.

So one in every 2 or 3 teams have a rookie UFA play at least 6 snaps a game on offense or defense. Having one rookie UFA make a team as a backup position performer is a home run.

But Tony Romo won the backup job 20 years ago so that's what proves the point.

Rooke UFA's should never enter a discussion as a position back up candidate, until they've shown something in camp.

The discussion is absurd.

 

[mgteich]

Rooke UFA's should never enter a discussion as a position back up candidate, until they've shown something in camp.

The discussion is absurd.

I would say "not until they have shown something in a couple of NFL game".

For example, I and sure that we can recall lots of players, especially WR's, who "showed something in camp" and were rarely heard from again.

 

[mgteich]

Well, we've got stats galore here. So if I understand, on average, 13+ of the 53 man roster is UDFA, and 0 or 1 plays any significant time.

To be clear, you are saying that on average has 13 or more UDFA's on their UDFA who likely play no significant role at all.

 

[Family]

I would say "not until they have shown something in a couple of NFL game".

For example, I and sure that we can recall lots of players, especially WR's, who "showed something in camp" and were rarely heard from again.

If a rookie UFA is consistently receiving meaningful snaps with the 1's, that is often an indicator.

You're correct, however. It's not about how fans/media view their play.

 

[mgteich]

If a rookie UFA is consistently receiving meaningful snaps with the 1's, that is often an indicator.

Agreed.

I think that Ponder did a bit of that last year. As I recall, few of us were surprised when he made the 53.

 

[BTTA]

To be clear, you are saying that on average has 13 or more UDFA's on their UDFA who likely play no significant role at all.

I'm summarizing the two facts put forth as absolute truth here by two posters: that 25% of rosters are UDFA, and that 1 UDFA or less plays regularly from any team. So I'm not taking a position, I'm making sure we are clear about what's being asserted.

 

[Wozzy]

I'm summarizing the two facts put forth as absolute truth here by two posters: that 25% of rosters are UDFA, and that 1 UDFA or less plays regularly from any team. So I'm not taking a position, I'm making sure we are clear about what's being asserted.

I used “roughly” all along the way. When you’re talking about large data sets nothing is exact.

 

[Family]

I'm summarizing the two facts put forth as absolute truth here by two posters: that 25% of rosters are UDFA, and that 1 UDFA or less plays regularly from any team. So I'm not taking a position, I'm making sure we are clear about what's being asserted.

A total of one ROOKIE UFA receives more than 6 snaps per game as a position player on between half to one third of the teams.

That is the discussion. This is not about non rookies so I'm not sure why that fact was even brought up as relevant, except as an end around desperate to make a point.

In real terms I imagine it is probably more likely that the eventual position backup during the coming season be listed as "other" as in someone not currently on the roster than an UFA rookie.

 

[Wozzy]

Nice nugget today from Reiss in his Sunday Quick Hits:

Predicting the next Ninkovich: Why these Pats have chance to surprise

Ninkovich made his mark during training camp in 2009. Who can do the same in 2026? Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

Using Ninkovich's story as a springboard, who are some of the more likely possibilities to do the same when the 2026 Patriots begin training camp July 25?

Safety Mike Brown was highlighted as one of the surprise players in spring practices, and he would qualify after signing a one-year, $1.35 million contract with a modest $50,000 signing bonus.

Here are five others, and why they were picked:

LB Chad Muma: The 6-foot-3, 239-pound Muma was signed off the Colts' practice squad last December due to injuries. He played in the final three regular-season games and four playoff games and carried that momentum into last spring. A six-year veteran out of Wyoming who is now on his third NFL team, Muma was playing on the top punt-protection unit this spring, and in one mandatory minicamp practice was the first to rotate in on defense behind starters Robert Spillane and Christian Elliss.

 

[Wozzy]

A total of one ROOKIE UFA receives more than 6 snaps per game as a position player on between half to one third of the teams.

That is the discussion. This is not about non rookies so I'm not sure why that fact was even brought up as relevant, except as an end around desperate to make a point.

In real terms I imagine it is probably more likely that the eventual position backup during the coming season be listed as "other" as in someone not currently on the roster than an UFA rookie.

Nobody but you mentioned defensive snaps played as a rookie, and you had to take a long convoluted trip to arrive there. That was the only “end around” used in this thread.

 

[Family]

Nobody but you mentioned defensive snaps played as a rookie. That was the only “end around” in this thread.

The thread is about backups THIS YEAR. Not in 2031.

You're mentioning rookie UFA's as possible backups THIS YEAR.

 

[Wozzy]

I strongly believe Muma will backup Spillane and Obiazor will backup Elliss.

@Family I said this ^ all the way back on page five and was arguing it as far back as page one.

I’m talking about this year. Jacobs and Gainer could make the team as backups to the backups and make ILB one of the deeper positions on the team. The UDFA’s could contribute this year on special teams or be called into service late in the season during the playoffs.

That’s quality of depth, nobody but you suggested a certain number of defensive snaps was a barometer of success. And it was an end around…

 

[rkarp1]

Nice nugget today from Reiss in his Sunday Quick Hits:

Predicting the next Ninkovich: Why these Pats have chance to surprise

Ninkovich made his mark during training camp in 2009. Who can do the same in 2026? Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

Using Ninkovich's story as a springboard, who are some of the more likely possibilities to do the same when the 2026 Patriots begin training camp July 25?

Safety Mike Brown was highlighted as one of the surprise players in spring practices, and he would qualify after signing a one-year, $1.35 million contract with a modest $50,000 signing bonus.

Here are five others, and why they were picked:

LB Chad Muma: The 6-foot-3, 239-pound Muma was signed off the Colts' practice squad last December due to injuries. He played in the final three regular-season games and four playoff games and carried that momentum into last spring. A six-year veteran out of Wyoming who is now on his third NFL team, Muma was playing on the top punt-protection unit this spring, and in one mandatory minicamp practice was the first to rotate in on defense behind starters Robert Spillane and Christian Elliss.

everyone hopes Muma is Nink part 2.
but reality is he is 27 years old and on his 3rd team
he is a long shot to play regular snaps, and 50/50 to make the roster.
his competition is mostly ufa's/players that have never taken an nfl snap
maybe they are something, some day
but this team is a SB contender. they are a destination team. they have money available. they have playing time available
they should have a better plan at back up ILB than "I hope...." or better than "Reiss wrote an article about Nink."
bring some vet competition in. best player plays

 

[Wozzy]

everyone hopes Muma is Nink part 2.
but reality is he is 27 years old and on his 3rd team
he is a long shot to play regular snaps, and 50/50 to make the roster.
his competition is mostly ufa's/players that have never taken an nfl snap
maybe they are something, some day
but this team is a SB contender. they are a destination team. they have money available. they have playing time available
they should have a better plan at back up ILB than "I hope...." or better than "Reiss wrote an article about Nink."
bring some vet competition in. best player plays

Just like “Okorafor is good,” your Muma hate will likely age poorly.

Finding a reclamation project like Nincovich or Chaisson is very often a good plan. The coaches had Muma for the last couple games of the regular season and into the playoffs, they know what they have assuming health. It’s why they let Gibbens walk for peanuts.

 

[n1997y]

Nice nugget today from Reiss in his Sunday Quick Hits:

Predicting the next Ninkovich: Why these Pats have chance to surprise

Ninkovich made his mark during training camp in 2009. Who can do the same in 2026? Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

That story about Ninkovich being matched up against Matt Light and beating him three straight reps to end his first practice after joining the Pats shows what the fringe players need to do to become core players.

Nink is a great example of how past results don’t determine future performance being. He came in here knowing what he needed to do, obviously he knew how to do it because he did it.

Same could be true of any of the players trying to win a job in camp this year.

They have their opportunity. Time will tell what they do with it.

 

[mgteich]

everyone hopes Muma is Nink part 2.
but reality is he is 27 years old and on his 3rd team
he is a long shot to play regular snaps, and 50/50 to make the roster.

Given, the other in-house compeition for the 2-3 backup ILB roster spots, I guess that you are expecting a free agant signing.