The Offense is Loaded

[Real fan 02]

It is, no doubt. My concern is what happens after two years. High price to pay for a long term rental. Like a lease I guess.

This is why you develop Kyle Williams. And others potentially. Vrabel knows the window and opportunity is now! Drake is on his rookie deal..

 

[Family]

This is why you develop Kyle Williams.

It's early still, but I never felt any chemistry between Kyle Williams and Maye.

Maye tends to throw high.

 

[Real fan 02]

It's early still, but I never felt any chemistry between Kyle Williams and Maye.

Maye tends to throw

 

[Thelonious]

We should expect to be playing a first place schedule for the foreseeable future.

That's be nice. I hope you're right - I really do, and your expectations are not beyond all possibility - but I would not bet on it as part of my retirement plan, unless your idea of "the foreseeable future" is unusually short.

 

[moosekill]

From a short-term perspective (which is in my mind not as important as a long-term perspective, but not all will agree with me on that, and we are talking here about next season), the AJB acquisition is part of a larger picture suggesting the offense should indeed be better this year. I think Drake's presumed improvement and what will likely be a modestly but significantly better O-line are greater factors in this, but again, that's not our topic at the moment.

This year's schedule is tough, Last year's schedule was historically easy. I know it's annoying to hear that, particularly from the likes of Cam Newton, but it's a fact. In my view, failure to appreciate just how weak last year's schedule was, accounts in large measure for the erroneous view, offered by many as a justification for the AJB overpay, that the rebuild is largely complete, so that taking on "that final piece" is justified: it isn't, and I think the AJB trade will ultimately prove to be a significant mistake.

I think we likely will do well this year and make the playoffs, quite possibly as winner of the AFC East. There are some clouds on the horizon, however. The schedule really is tougher. We may not be as fortunate this year re injuries, which is particularly a problem because the rebuild is not complete, leaving us with weak backups at any number of positions, other of our starters are getting a little long in the tooth, and finally, our new Shiny Object is on the cusp of thirty, has shown declining stats over the past couple of years, and has a bum knee.

We'll need a little luck for the various sunny scenarios on offer here to eventuate. We might be lucky; we might not. I think we will be lucky enough to nose our way into the playoffs, but our fate after that seems pretty questionable. In trading for AJB, we acted like the Jets. Hopefully, we will not now over the next few years find ourselves mimicking the Jim Kelly Bills.

Of course last year's schedule wasn't historically easy when you throw in the three playoff games they won.

 

[Triumph]

Of course last year's schedule wasn't historically easy when you throw in the three playoff games they won.

Every playoff QB had issues except Darnold.

 

[moosekill]

Every playoff QB had issues except Darnold.

And they all had top line defenses and had great records. You play who you play. They beat up on weaker, and not so weak teams, made it to the playoffs, and won three games with crappy conditions against three of the top defenses in the league. Kind of getting old the posters who keep posting about how awful this team is. Kind of pitiful after a while. We get it you love Felgar and are miserable wish you could love the jets fans who post here just to *****.

 

[JoeSixPat]

This is going to be a different type of offense so it should be interesting.

With Brown getting probably 150 targets you won't be seeing the same spread offense that confounded a lot Ds

But we've also now got a true #1 WR who does a lot better getting separation than Boutte

And now that we know Boutte isn't part of this particular trade, it will be interesting to see what they do with him now as there just aren't a lot of reps to go around

 

[Rob0729]

 

[mayoclinic]

That's be nice. I hope you're right - I really do, and your expectations are not beyond all possibility - but I would not bet on it as part of my retirement plan, unless your idea of "the foreseeable future" is unusually short.

We should have Drake Maye for 15 years. Have a true franchise QB, surround him with a reasonably competitive roster and good ownership/coaching staff/GM, and you should have a legitimate competitor.

Mike Vrabel probably won't be here for all of Drake Maye's career, but he's not going anywhere anytime soon. The AJ Brown trade is proof of that - Vrabel was the guy driving that from the Pats' end based on their history. That he could get the FO/ownership to buy in shows that he is still the guy running the show.

"Win the division" is priority 1 on Vrabel's list, and should be the goal every season. It may not happen, but I suspect it should most of the time.

The Jets and Dolphins will always have talent, but it's been 15 years or more since either fielded a competitive team. I won't consider either a legitimate threat until they have a true franchise QB, a competent and stable HC and GM , and ownership who won't f*ck everything up.

The Bills should be competitive as long as Josh Allen is there, but their recent ownership/GM/coaching debacle suggests major fissures in the foundation.

The Pats don't have the Rams, Seahawks and 49ers in their division, or even the Packers, Lions and Bears.

That said, ypu are probably right. Things never work out according to the master plan - just ask Darth Siddious. IMO, the biggest threat to the Patriots is Jonathan Kraft assuming complete control of the team. His fingerprints are all over the 2020-2024 disaster, and if he is running things all bets are off.

 

[TheRainMaker]

I'm wondering if our lack of goal-line/short yardage production, in addition to the bad run blocking, was the lack of real receiving threat outside Diggs. If this works out, defenses will have a lot more to account for with the Patriots.

A WR threats helps, but the Pats haven't really ever been known as a road grading-line. However, the RB can make a difference. Dillon was 2nd in the league picking up 1st downs in 2004 and was very reliable in short yardage situations. And believe it or not, Stevan Ridley was pretty automatic in that department picking up 83 1st downs (3rd in the league) which was only one short of Dillon's 84 in 2004. Martin is the last back in 1995 who was close to Dillon and Ridley in that department. Nobody else has come close post Martin.

There are also years where McDaniels makes everyone in the stadium know they are running the football with goal line formations in the middle of the field. That makes it even more difficult for everyone to execute which is why we've seen many times the Pats barely get the first down.

Goes to show how special 2011 was on offense. Downright criminal that it happened to be paired with possibly the worst defense of the Brady era.

2012 was actually better. See above. Ridley was slicing and dicing his way getting 1st downs with ease which gave Tom a lot of options. The 2012 team was way better than the 2011 team. Both of those teams should've won a Super Bowl.

 

[jdlboot14]

The AFC is similar to what it was in early 2000's as far as competition for that Pats era.
Brady's Pats vs. Manning's Colts, Ben's Steelers, Brees/Rivers Chargers, McNair's Titans, Plummer's Broncos...

They all had lots of hype, but it always came down to who had the better game plan & ice-veins in January.
I'm not afraid of anyone. Chiefs aren't the 2019-23 version. Bills, Ravens, Broncos, Jags, Texans all have question marks across the roster, or at QB consistency. The Bengals, Steelers & Chargers are ones I'd look out for this year to make a push.

 

[Bill Lee]

I understand how the schedule works. I.also know how the draft works. They control the players they select and they've shown an inability to select a WR 1. This move is the admission to that failure.

Ok, and so what, keep failing?

 

[Huckleberry1]

Eagles must be thrilled today. Getting 2 first round picks, Christian Gonzales, Gabe Jacas, and Milt Williams back for AJ Brown was masterful by Howie Roseman. He's a wizard.

 

[Vindicate]

A WR threats helps, but the Pats haven't really ever been known as a road grading-line. However, the RB can make a difference. Dillon was 2nd in the league picking up 1st downs in 2004 and was very reliable in short yardage situations. And believe it or not, Stevan Ridley was pretty automatic in that department picking up 83 1st downs (3rd in the league) which was only one short of Dillon's 84 in 2004. Martin is the last back in 1995 who was close to Dillon and Ridley in that department. Nobody else has come close post Martin.

There are also years where McDaniels makes everyone in the stadium know they are running the football with goal line formations in the middle of the field. That makes it even more difficult for everyone to execute which is why we've seen many times the Pats barely get the first down.

2012 was actually better. See above. Ridley was slicing and dicing his way getting 1st downs with ease which gave Tom a lot of options. The 2012 team was way better than the 2011 team. Both of those teams should've won a Super Bowl.

Ridley was very, very good. Also **** Pollard.

Edit: Also Blount did a damn good job, not 80+, but 67 and led the NFL with 18 TD's, setting a franchise record. I assume Michel's stats were pretty solid as well.

 

[Huckleberry1]

see my subsequent post

I have gone through this thread several time and I don't see any " subsequent post."

 

[mgteich]

I was not a fan of the AJ Brown trade. The Pats overpaid for past production, IMO. But now it is official. From a short-term perspective, the offensive build out is pretty complete. Looking at the next 3 years, the Offense is about as deep and loaded as I can ever recall.

Here's a breakdown by position (* = 5th year option):

QB: Drake Maye (2028*), Tommy DeVito (2027), Behren Morten (2029)

The Gold Standard: Tom Brady circa 2007, 2010, 2016.

The Outlook: The GOAT sets an impossible bar, but if Drake Maye can build on 2025 the Pats will be in the best alternative position imaginable.

RB: TreVeyon Henderson (2028), Rhamondre Stevenson (2028), Lan Larison (2027), Jam Miller (2029), Myles Montgomery (2028)

The Gold Standard: 2004 Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk

The Outlook: If Henderson can make a 2nd year leap, the Pats will have one of the better RB rooms in the NFL.

TE/FB: Hunter Henry (2026), Eli Raridon (2029), Reggie Gilliam (2028)

The Gold Standard: Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, James Develin circa 2012

The Outlook: Not close to the gold standard, but far better than 2025. Raridon has some real potential, and and Gilliam should be a devastating blocking addition. The loss of Julian Hill for 2026 hurts quite a bit.

WR: AJ Brown (2029), Romeo Doubs (2029), Kyle Williams (2028), Kayshon Boutte (2026), Mack Hollins (2026), Pop Douglas (2026), Efton Chism (2027), Kyle Dixon (2028)

The Gold Standard: 2007 - Moss, Welker and Stallworth

The Outlook: The best WR room the Pats have had since 2007, even after Boutte is probably traded.

OT: Will Campbell (2029*), Morgan Moses (2027), Caleb Lomo (2030*), Dametrious Crownover (2029), Marcus Bryant (2028), James Hudson (2026)

The Gold Standard: 2011-2012 Matt Light, Sebastian Vollmer, Nate Solder and Marcus Cannon

The Outlook: The strongest and deepest unit the Pats have had in a long time.

IOL: Alijah Vera-Tucker (2028), Jared Wilson (2028), Mike Onwenu (2026), Ben Brown (2027), Caedan Wallace (2027)

The Gold Standard: 2011 - Logan Mankins, Brian Waters, Dan Koppen, Dan Connelly, Ryan Wendell

The Outlook: Still 1 player away from dominance IMO, but pretty strong if AVT can stay healthy.

Overall: Paper does not always equate to production, but on paper I've never seen a Pats Offense as loaded and deep as this one is across the board. Individual units have been better at different times, but the combination of a franchise QB, OL strength/depth, and the variety and depth of offensive skill options is unparalleled. If people stay healthy (Julian Hill has already been put on IR since I started this), this should be a championship caliber offense.

We have a fine Offense for Maye signed through 2028. I wouldn't be surprised to see us extend Onwenu and Henry for 2027-2028.

LINE
Campbell
AVT
Wilson
Lomu
Crownover
Bryant

WIDE RECEIVERS
Brown
Doubs
Williams

RB
Henderson
Stevenson
Miller

FB/TE
Gilliam
Raridon

 

[TheRainMaker]

Ridley was very, very good. Also **** Pollard.

Edit: Also Blount did a damn good job, not 80+, but 67 and led the NFL with 18 TD's, setting a franchise record. I assume Michel's stats were pretty solid as well.

Yes, Pollard should've been at suspended for the year on the Tom Brady hit. There's no defense for that.

Blount was really solid and was also automatic on the short yards goal line runs for TD's. We had that confidence that whenever he got the ball, he was getting in.

Michael was 7th in the NFL in 2018 with 54, but it's crazy how far off that was from Dillon and Ridley. Ridley 2012 is probably the most unappreciated player I've seen during the dynasty era. He was never the same after the Pollard hit.

 

[Thelonious]

When exactly did the Jets have a borderline MVP at quarterback and decide to go trade for a bonafide, albeit aging, WR1?

Jettish foolishness comes in many guises, The essence is to act on the basis of delusions as to where your team actually is, what you team's actually needs are. In that respect, the AJB deal certainly qualifies. The Butt Fumble is, I'll admit, somewhat of a special case in which the quarterback did not know where his lineman's ass was or struggled to distinguish it from his own elbow perhaps.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Imagine what he could do if we kept Bailey Zappe