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The Difficulties in Hitting Our Three Biggest Needs: OT, EDGE, and X WR

mayoclinic

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I think it's becoming established here on this forum that OT, EDGE and X-WR are our three biggest needs. Yes, there's other possibilities - just going BPA for example or hitting a TE, RB, DB or LB as another - but I think OT, EDGE and X-WR are where we're at by and large. The Pats missed out on Alec Pierce and only swapped K'Lavon Chaisson for Dre'Mont Jones, apparently not making a serious run at any of the top pass rushers. While a trade could still be an option, the draft is still the most likely place to build foundational young talent.

However there are difficulties. Most of the best prospects, even at the second level, are likely gone by pick 63, much less 95. Looking at the 3 different positions:

1. OT. "Protect the Drake" is my personal top priority. Will Campbell is coming off a knee injury, and Morgan Moses could retire at any time, and will almost certainly last past 2026. There are 7 players - Monroe Freeling, Francis Mauigoa, Max Iheanachor, Caleb Lomu, Blake Miller, Spencer Fano, and Kadyn Proctor - who will go in the top 40, all could be off the board by 31. After that there is nothing. I have Dametrious Crownover as a 3rd round prospect, then Travis Burke, currently 345 on PFFs big board. I am not a fan of Caleb Tiernan, Gennings Dunker, Jude Bowry, or Austin Barber. Keagan Trost and JC Davis have some swing tackle potential, though I think both are better suited at RG.

2. EDGE. Everyone wants to be able to pressure the opposing QB. Harold Landry is coming off a knee injury. After that it's Jones, Elijah Ponder, and Bradyn Swinson. Clearly not enough. The EDGE class is very deep, with as many as 16 top-100 prospects, plus a lot of day 3 developmental talent. Arvell Reese, David Bailey and Rueben Bain will all be long gone. The chances of Keldric Faulk or Akheem Mesidor lasting to 31 are remote. Unless that happens, I think EDGE at 31 is a reach. TJ Parker, Zion Young, Dani Dennis-Sutton, Malachi Lawrence, Gabe Jacas, and Derrick Moore are all good options in the second round, but all could be gone by 63. Keyron Crawford and Jonathan Joseph are good 3rd round options. I am not personally a fan of the sub rusher types - Cashius Howell, R Mason Thomas, and Romello Height.

3. X WR. Stretching the field is priority #2 on offense. Missing out on Alec Pierce hurt. I do not see an X WR worth taking at 31 unless Jordyn Tyson goes into free fall. Chris Bell, Ted Hurst and Denzel Boston are all worthy 2nd round picks, but may not last until 63. The other day 3 possibilities - Chris Brazzell, Ja'Kobi Lane, Malachi Fields and Bryce Lance - all scare me. After that it is a bunch of day 3 developmental guys with upside.

So what would you do?

My preference:

31. I probably take any of the top OL if available. If Faulk, Mesidor or Tyson Jordan are available then they should also get serious consideration. Otherwise, either take BPA at another position uf a top talent slips (Caleb Banks, Jermod McCoy, Dillon Thieneman, Kenyon Sadiq) or trade back from 31 and target one of the EDGE or X WR prospects.

63. If we went OT at 31, hope one of the 2nd tier EDGEs or the 3 X WRs slips. Possibly trade up if a specific guy is highly coveted. Don't over-reach, especially if a really good player at another position slips (Banks, Lee Hunter, Treydan Stukes, Jake Golday, Jacob Rodriguez, Eli Stowers, Mike Washington). If OT was not taken at 31, I see no one worth taking here, unless someone slips and we trade up. Trading back may also be an option, as 70-75 looks like a possible "sweet spot".

95. If OT was not taken, Dametrious Crownover is the only tackle I would even consider. Anyone previously mentioned who slips. I don't like the other X WRs, would wait till day 3. Kyle Louis, Devin Moore, Sam Roush, Max Klare are all possible BPAs. Trading up may be needed.

Because these three needs are where most of this discussion is, I just wanted to lay out, as starkly as possible where things currently stand and what the options currently are. It may well end up that these needs are not well aligned with the values available when we pick.

So what are your favourite options?
 
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Unless there is a large BPA discrepancy, in which case, we could still trade down or up.


31 - one of the top RT's
2nd pick - EDGE
3rd pick - BPA (LB? DE? EDGE? S?) perhaps using a 4th to move up from 95
4th round - BPA
 
I would say their need is more broad than "X Receiver". They have guys who have played X and done it well in Boutte/Doubs and KWilliams is a solid developmental player in that role. Not to mention Hollins who shouldn't be a top 3 WR but can clearly contribute as a depth option in certain packages. I think what they need is a guy that defenses have to gameplan for in the passing game. That can be a slot, an X, a TE or a versatile flanker/Z. They have a versatile group of WRs that can align in different spots and run different route trees around whoever that player is.

The thing about that type of need is that it's challenging to expect to address it in the 2nd or 3rd round. Heck, even n the first round where we're picking is tough. To address that need with any of our picks means we'd be landing a steal and by definition that's an outcome you ca't really expect. It's one thing to say you're going to draft a good pass catcher, be it an X or a Z or a slot or a TE. It's another to say "this will be a #1 option type player that other teams need to gameplan for". We have quality pass catchers. I'd say our WR room is pretty deep actually, it just lacks high end talent and we aren't making up for that at TE.
 
FWIW, their extra 4th could be used to make any of these moves, according to the charts:
  • 31 to 28 [Hill]/29 [JJ]
  • 63 to 55/58
  • 95 to 75/85
With all the needs they have, I doubt they will want to trade picks.
 
It all depends on who falls. The Patriots might need to move up to the 20's to get a legit starter type of player. WR/OT/Edge doesn't matter so much as getting a top talent who can help the team and hopefully quickly.

Just a few names to throw out there but for WR I like the looks of Omar Cooper Jr, Concepcion, or Boston. For OT Freeling or Lomu.

The edges are the hardest to call. I don't think any of the top tier ones will get to our range. Whoever makes it to 31 is probably more worthy of a round 2 picks but won't last to 63.
 
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If they trade back at all from 31 or 63, that could also generate the capital to move up elsewhere.
I trust your analysis and from what you have been reporting about where the talent is for Oline and Edge, it would seem a trade back from 31 and a trade up from 63 would put the Pats in the best position.
 
It all depends on (1) who is available, and (2) if there is a partner.
 
BB had a bad habit of getting too cute with the draft...moving down 5-10 picks because he thought the guy he wanted will still be there. Sometimes it worked...sometimes it didn't. I think Vrabel got him once or twice. I prefer not taking risks like that.
 
BB had a bad habit of getting too cute with the draft...moving down 5-10 picks because he thought the guy he wanted will still be there. Sometimes it worked...sometimes it didn't. I think Vrabel got him once or twice. I prefer not taking risks like that.

I think there are several different scenarios:

1. The guy you really want is there at your pick, but you trade back because you think you can get him later. BB got away with it with Christian Gonzalez, but risk was too great.

2. Several guys you want equally are there at your pick, and you are fairly sure 1 or more will be available with your trade back. I am OK with this.

3. No one is available at your pick you grade highly enough to take, so you move back. This is good draft strategy.
 
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I think there are 2 different scenarios:

1. The guy you really want is there at your pick, but you trade back because you think you can get him later. BB got away with nit with Christian Gonzalez, but risk was too great.

2. Several guys you want equally are there at your pick, and you are fairly sure 1vor more will be available with your trade back. I am OK with this.

3. No one is available at your pick you grade highly enough to take, so you move back. This is good draft strategy.


Yes I agree with options 2 and 3. Thanks.
 
We have 11 picks. 11 rookies aren’t making the team, I would be surprised if we make 11 picks.
Y not? 1 TE, 1 WR, 2 OL, 3 DL & EDGE, 1 CB, 1 S, 1 LB, 1 RB.

Sure we could trade for AJ B or move a pick forward or use 1 to move up. But I wouldn't be surprised after last year.
 
Y not? 1 TE, 1 WR, 2 OL, 3 DL & EDGE, 1 CB, 1 S, 1 LB, 1 RB.

Sure we could trade for AJ B or move a pick forward or use 1 to move up. But I wouldn't be surprised after last year.
True.
Maybe we do make 11 picks, but I think a trade up or 2 and making 8-9 picks is more likely.
 
True.
Maybe we do make 11 picks, but I think a trade up or 2 and making 8-9 picks is more likely.
If we plan on trading for AJ Brown after June 1st, we may be trading back to pick up 2027 picks to compensate for the ones we lose for Brown.
 
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