What is your confidence level for Super Bowl LX?

[bormio]

The Patriots are not yet a dominant team, but they have a crucial quality going forward. They have learned how to win. They have won high-scoring games, they have won low-scoring games. They have won from ahead, they have won from behind. They have won physical games, they have won with injuries, they have won on the road. They have won playing well and playing badly. They pick each other up. They believe and they do not give up. The Packers used to say when they had Starr that they never lost, they just ran out of time. This is a team to be proud of. They will acquit themselves well in Santa Clara.

 

[LightSkinSmurf]

I would say I'm 50/50 slightly favoring Seattle. One of those games I feel could easily go in just about every direction.

 

[Kdo5]

I think my AFC Championship game thread was well received, so I'm going to do it again for the Super Bowl.

I'm going to modify it though so that you can make two choices, for the people who want to vote for RLKAG but also would like to actually make a vote so that they don't have to choose. But the votes will be public, so no monkeying around or I'll hire Ian to rough you up, and you DON'T want that. He's a crazy man! Also you'll be allowed to change your vote if news comes during the lead up to game time.

For the AFCC Game the results were
No way Pats can lose: 1.5%
Very confident: 19%
Mostly confident: 50.4%
50/50: 16.8%
Mostly pessimistic: 0%
Very pessimistic: 0%
No way Pats can win: 0%
RLKAG: 12.4%

As for me, I'm less confident than I was for the AFCC game. I'm thinking about 60-40 right now in favor of the Seahawks, so I'm going with mostly pessimistic. I don't think we have zero chance like some jokers, but we haven't been playing lights out football through the playoffs and the Seahawks look really good.

What say you?

I give us about 40% chance of winning, almost entirely because the offense has sputtered and been inconsistent against these top defenses in the playoffs. Seattle is another one.

Drake needs to have a good game for us to win. As great as the defense has been this is an actual, legit offense.

 

[lancerman]

I give us about 40% chance of winning, almost entirely because the offense has sputtered and been inconsistent against these top defenses in the playoffs. Seattle is another one.

Drake needs to have a good game for us to win. As great as the defense has been this is an actual, legit offense.

I feel the same. The defense needs to play as well as they have been (and this is the best offense they've been up against) and our offense is going up against another strong defense and really needs to play better than they have in a month to have a chance.

This is a game they can win if they execute everything well, play clean, and play to their potential, but they really need to dig deep. This is probably the most I've considered the Pats an underdog in a Super Bowl since the 01 Rams game. I don't think Seattle is as dominant as the Rams, but they probably should be viewed as favorites. I wouldn't have said that about any of the other Super Bowls we've played from 03 to 18. They were either toss ups or we were favorites.

 

[stephens44]

They need to run effectively and not turn it over at all in order to make this a winnable game. I'm sure they know that and are preparing accordingly.
If they come out disciplined, focused, and above all PHYSICAL, they have a solid chance. It's not like the Pats are physically smaller or weaker than the Seahawks, its a mental game that they need to win.

 

[aluminum seats]

Maye’s shoulder and ball security.

If after the game nobody points to either of those things as a problem for the Patriots, I like their chances.

 

[TomPatriot]

Very confident unless everything goes wrong.

 

[Racervx54]

Pats are gettting zero respect. Keep that chip on the should and lets show the world why this team is special...

 

[pats4life12]

I think it is a coin flip between two good teams with nothing to lose. I like us on the QB battle, given Drake's shoulder is good to go and he doesn't lose the ball. Defences are evenly matched, I expect a low-scoring game.

 

[Simpelton]

More confident than I was yesterday. All the ESPN pundits are picking the Seahawks. And we know how much God hates ESPN.

 

[Grogan14]

Although I agree that it is about 40% chance they win, the fact that Dan Orlofsky is so positive the Seahawks are going to cruise to victory makes me more confident in the Pats chances.

I think the Seahawks will be very over confident and the pressure is 100% squarely on them. Also Vrabel will use the underdog and Pats versus the world meme to fire up his team.

Seahawks are very healthy and do not seem to have any key injuries, while Pats are likely not going to have Spillane and Landry. So health is on SEA side.

 

[BobDigital]

I believe in the due factor. Always have. The Seahawks have played do well and so clean they probably are due for a more messy game. Darnold in particular. Maye on the other hand seems due for a really good game.

But who knows. On paper I have to admit the Seahawks are better. But the big factor not being talked Bout enough is pressure up the middle and taking away the middle of the field. The Pats can do both things vs the Seahawks. If their offense becomes more boom bust, that isn't really were they want to be. They like to stay on time. I think the Pats can force their offer to play a very uncomfortable game.

As for our offense. The main weakness is the left oline side and runs up the middle in short yardage. They have a good D but probably the worst edge rushers we've faced in this run. And I think they will scheme up ways around short yardage. So I think our O can have a good day compared to how they have played. Also I think Maye just May be a warm weather QB who likes ideal conditions.

 

[PlainOldEd]

I HOPE Drake reverts to superman, but I don't think he has too, because I THINK Sam will turn into a pumpkin (aided by the Pats defense)

 

[n1997y]

RLKAG(O2) is always going to be my choice.

I’m mostly confident, as long as the team plays a good clean game. It will be a good tough game but I believe in the Patriots ability to persevere and overcome any adversity that comes up. Only caveats are injuries, if Drake’s shoulder is dinged badly enough to affect his throwing that is a serious problem, likewise if Will Campbell’s knee flares up or gets aggravated in the pregame practices and preparations. Or if critical injuries occur during the game. Otherwise I’m actually more confident than I was for the Broncos game, because of the Denver home field altitude advantage.

I’d love to see the Pats play the best game they’re capable of on both sides of the ball, from the very first play. If they do I can see them getting ahead and staying ahead. At this level a two score lead will be a blowout. I think their offense is capable of building such a lead, and their defense is capable of protecting it or even extending it. That would be the best of all possible scenarios but it’s not out of the question IMO.

 

[n1997y]

Think any fair analysis would give the Seahawks the edge here but not overwhelmingly so - 40/60 or 45/55 territory.

I think you are being overly pessimistic.

The reality is we need our MVP-caliber QB to outplay their sometimes-hot sometimes-not QB and we win. But the latter gets to work with better offensive support (mainly JSN but Kupp is a wily vet, Walker is incredibly shifty as a receiver out of the backfield).

Here is an area where I think you are over estimating the opponent and underestimating the Pats.
JSN is stellar but he is also by far the singular most productive part of their offense. This is stark contrast to the Pats offense that spreads the ball around much more effectively. It’s a question how Seattle would do if Gonzo can take JSN down to normal NFL WR performance and the game depends on how the rest of their offense stacks up against ours. I think we stack up pretty well. Diggs and Boutte are our closest comparison to JSN imo, and there are two of them to cover not just the one prima donna. Hollins is our wily veteran, Rham is a very effective receiver out of the backfield, and we have Pop, Henry, Hoop, Hendo, and Williams all eager to contribute. Apart from JSN I really don’t think Seattle has the advantage you assert they do.

I agree with your QB assessment but I think you too quickly blow past it. Darnold has compiled enough of a body of work to have shown that his “seeing ghosts” game was not an outlier. His performance depends on his supporting cast, not just the ball handlers but also his OL protection. We have multiple playoff opponents giving props to the Pats D for showing one thing and playing something completely different. Most recently Sean Payton, talking about a failed fourth and one play, commented "The look they showed on film, and the look we saw, wasn't the look we got." The Seattle O line is weakest up the middle, where the Pats DL is strongest. There’s a very good chance chance that Darnold will be seeing the same defense that has confused Herbert, Stroud, and Sean Payton, with pass rush pressure up the middle and solid coverage behind it, and will end up once again seeing ghosts.

Drake frankly hasn't played up to his full capability in the playoffs. There have been spurts of it but he hasn't consistently brought his top level. He will need to bring his best to this game (receivers will also have to make some tough catches, offensive line has to hold up mostly) and I think we win. It really does come down to him and the rest of the offense.

Drake’s biggest problem has been getting time to throw. He has also been trapped in the pocket a lot in the playoffs. Josh has not given him much help with either play calling or blocking help for the OL. If Drake gets a better pocket, or starts rolling out and/or scrambling he could negate some of those protection problems, and some better play calls by McDaniels could help a lot. I’d say Drake’s play is third on my list of concerns, behind the OL blocking and Josh’s play calling. I’m also not worried about receivers making tough catches, they’ve shown they can do that well if Drake has time and delivers the ball on target.

They haven't played up to their capabilities in the playoffs but have made clutch plays when needed so far. This game they will need to bring consistency on top of a few clutch big plays as our defense is not facing an impaired offense so it would be unfair to expect them to hold the Seahawks to <17 pts, but at the same time I don't think they will get trucked for 25+ (Seahawks are not the Rams or Bills on offense). Our offense has the capability to score in the low/mid-20s against this tough Seahawks D on a good day...if they can do it we should be able to win a tight one. Would be easier if Darnold gives us some short fields but we shouldn't walk in expecting "bad Darnold" in this game as part of the plan.

We absolutely should walk in planning to do everything we know that will help to produce”bad Sam Darnit” in this game. Vrabel wasn’t here to be one of the ghosts Sam was seeing when he played the Patriots in the past, but Vrabes and Kuhr have shown the ability to produce similar defenses this year. Plus, Darnold’s record against the Patriots is pretty consistent: 0-4, 1 TD, 9 INTs.

 

[HelsinkiPatsFan]

I believe the game will turn thanks to the ghosts. My confidence is strong. If we stay on a proper course, I truly believe that the Patriots’ defense, which has improved as the season has progressed, will be able to put Darnold in a tough spot. And I still have to say that I have full confidence in Drake Maye’s abilities — still magical, and the rest of the world will get to see the best Drake at that point!

 

[JoeSixPat]

Any given Sunday baby!

The Pats are underdogs just like they were 25 years ago and we all know how that turned out.

The pundits say the Pats have no shot because of a weak schedule.

Their point being that EVERY team the Patriots beat lost to a team that had a schedule as weak as the Patriots.

So there's no arguing that point with them!

 

[StockingAnarchyNumber12]

Just remember, this might be Maye’s only chance at a championship. We don’t know if he’ll ever be back. I’ve been saying it all year but I’ll say it one more time. This is the year.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I think you are being overly pessimistic.

Here is an area where I think you are over estimating the opponent and underestimating the Pats.
JSN is stellar but he is also by far the singular most productive part of their offense. This is stark contrast to the Pats offense that spreads the ball around much more effectively. It’s a question how Seattle would do if Gonzo can take JSN down to normal NFL WR performance and the game depends on how the rest of their offense stacks up against ours. I think we stack up pretty well. Diggs and Boutte are our closest comparison to JSN imo, and there are two of them to cover not just the one prima donna. Hollins is our wily veteran, Rham is a very effective receiver out of the backfield, and we have Pop, Henry, Hoop, Hendo, and Williams all eager to contribute. Apart from JSN I really don’t think Seattle has the advantage you assert they do.

I agree with your QB assessment but I think you too quickly blow past it. Darnold has compiled enough of a body of work to have shown that his “seeing ghosts” game was not an outlier. His performance depends on his supporting cast, not just the ball handlers but also his OL protection. We have multiple playoff opponents giving props to the Pats D for showing one thing and playing something completely different. Most recently Sean Payton, talking about a failed fourth and one play, commented "The look they showed on film, and the look we saw, wasn't the look we got." The Seattle O line is weakest up the middle, where the Pats DL is strongest. There’s a very good chance chance that Darnold will be seeing the same defense that has confused Herbert, Stroud, and Sean Payton, with pass rush pressure up the middle and solid coverage behind it, and will end up once again seeing ghosts.

Drake’s biggest problem has been getting time to throw. He has also been trapped in the pocket a lot in the playoffs. Josh has not given him much help with either play calling or blocking help for the OL. If Drake gets a better pocket, or starts rolling out and/or scrambling he could negate some of those protection problems, and some better play calls by McDaniels could help a lot. I’d say Drake’s play is third on my list of concerns, behind the OL blocking and Josh’s play calling. I’m also not worried about receivers making tough catches, they’ve shown they can do that well if Drake has time and delivers the ball on target.

We absolutely should walk in planning to do everything we know that will help to produce”bad Sam Darnit” in this game. Vrabel wasn’t here to be one of the ghosts Sam was seeing when he played the Patriots in the past, but Vrabes and Kuhr have shown the ability to produce similar defenses this year. Plus, Darnold’s record against the Patriots is pretty consistent: 0-4, 1 TD, 9 INTs.

Helpful! Darnold is at 63% completion rate this season however and we're comparing apples to oranges with different teams and D - but we can probably expect something around that 60% completion rate.

And of course this doesn't factor in that Seattle has the best D in the NFL either.

That being said we've seen Seattle give up 27 points to the Rams so I think the Pats can do that too.

How good will the Pats D be? They've looked pretty good to me and will be up to the task.

 

[NFL Mystique]

Unless the defense turns into the 85 Bears, the offense needs to score TD's without any turnovers. Question is how do they turn it around (x's and o's) and be who they were during the season?