My Ridiculously Early Start on a 2026 Offseason Plan

[BobDigital]

What about using our first on Max Crosby?

I dislike the idea of trading a first for a player period. Our first round pick will likely be a 4 year 18M-16M contract give or take. or between 4.5M to 4M/per year... maybe a tad less. For what should be a good player. When you trade you trade for a good player but you always pay top dollar for them. I think you are better off keeping the pick and spending the 25M+ you would have used on that traded player on free agents. I don't think it is ever less value outside of maybe a few cases and they don't tend to invlolve anything except coaches and QBs.

I can't remember a time when it worked out in a team's favor to trade their first for a player. And typically the best players take multiple first. I'd be curious to learn how many cases where it actually worked out. The only time i know it worked out is when the Pats traded for BB.... but would that have even worked out without lucking into Brady?

Gruden too possibly... but was it better in the long term... maybe they win anyway and are better longer with all those picks?

Goff and a 1 for Stafford worked out... but i wonder if they would have been better off not doing it at all... I don't think Goff is worse than Stafford. But hard to argue with the results there.... however that is for a QB.

 

[manxman2601]

Don't roast me for this, this is more a thought experiment than a trade I'd actually advocate for. I don't know how I feel about it but I think I could live with it. However, I am not suggesting we target off-loading Gonzo.

1. Trade Christian Gonzalez for a 2026 first and second and 2027 first. I'd want more than what the Jets got for Sauce Gardner. I wouldn't trade Gonzo for less.

2. Use our two '26 first rounders to trade up for David Bailey.

3. Use our additional 2nd rounder to draft Devin Moore.

In return for trading Gonzo, yes we lose something at CB, but gain a potentially elite edge rusher for the next five years, an additional first round pick in '27 and lots of cap space flexibility in the coming few years.

 

[manxman2601]

Merry Christmas fellow draft nerds.

Or as you Yanks say…Happy Holidays.

 

[Clonamery]

Merry Christmas fellow draft nerds.

Or as you Yanks say…Happy Holidays.

Happy Christmas, may your Draft Card always be full of joy.

 

[mayoclinic]

On the first day of Christmas, my true love gave to me,
Arvell Reese, and a Super Bowl Trophy.

On the second day of Christmas, my true love gave to me,
2 EDGE rushers (David Bailey and Akheem Mesidor),
Arvell Reese, and a Super Bowl Trophy.

On the third day of Christmas, my true love gave to me,
3 Offensive linemen,
2 EDGE rushers (David Bailey and Akheem Mesidor),
Arvell Reese, and a Super Bowl Trophy.

On the fourth day of Christmas, my true love gave to me,
4 back end disruptors (LB, S, CB, nickel),
3 Offensive linemen,
2 EDGE rushers (David Bailey and Akheem Mesidor),
Arvell Reese, and a Super Bowl Trophy.

 

[DarrylS]

Don't roast me for this, this is more a thought experiment than a trade I'd actually advocate for. I don't know how I feel about it but I think I could live with it. However, I am not suggesting we target off-loading Gonzo.

1. Trade Christian Gonzalez for a 2026 first and second and 2027 first. I'd want more than what the Jets got for Sauce Gardner. I wouldn't trade Gonzo for less.

2. Use our two '26 first rounders to trade up for David Bailey.

3. Use our additional 2nd rounder to draft Devin Moore.

In return for trading Gonzo, yes we lose something at CB, but gain a potentially elite edge rusher for the next five years, an additional first round pick in '27 and lots of cap space flexibility in the coming few years.

I like this plan a lot... thought last week's game was not Gonzalez's best.
After last years draft I have more confidence in the Pats brain trust to draft players that can excel in our "system"...

 

[mayoclinic]

With the Browns firing Kevin Stefanski, there is a high chance DC Jim Schwartz will be let go. Schwartz runs a very aggressive defensive scheme. He worked with Vrabel at Cleveland, and for Vrabel in Tennessee.

I would love to see Terrell Williams moved to a more advisory role like Assistant HC, with Schwartz as DC, especially given Austin's health issues. Schwartz as DC and McDaniels as OC would be epic - they would push each other's squad to greater heights.

 

[manxman2601]

With the Browns firing Kevin Stefanski, there is a high chance DC Jim Schwartz will be let go. Schwartz runs a very aggressive defensive scheme. He worked with Vrabel at Cleveland, and for Vrabel in Tennessee.

I would love to see Terrell Austin moved to a more advisory role like Assistant HC, with Schwartz as DC, especially given Austin's health issues. Schwartz as DC and McDaniels as OC would be epic - they would push each other's squad to greater heights.

I would love that. Having enjoyed Texas Tech and Miami so much this year, I love the idea of an aggressive bullying defense.

 

[manxman2601]

It's obviously early still but my first round thoughts are solidifying around a smaller group of players.

These three are not in order. They are the top of my board right now. I'm assuming Sadiq and Ioane don't fall.

1. TJ Parker - Just a really good solid pick. Will be productive although maybe not game-changing productive.

2. CJ Allen - The tackling sucked without Spillane. Allen just feels like such a Vrabel pick. Young too.

3. Dillon Thienemann - Another really solid pick but with center field upside. Might depend on whether we re-sign Hawkins.


Would consider

1. Emmanuel Pregnon - Interior OL is such a need and he's one of the best zone blockers in the draft.

2. Monroe Freeling - Still not completely sold on him as a first rounder but that LT/RT flexibility appeals.

3. Denzel Boston - A copy/paste long-term replacement for Mack Hollins.

I just watched a Sikkema/Rogers mock and all but Boston were on the board. They took R Mason Thomas which I didn't like and I found myself really hoping they'd take Parker or Allen.

 

[mayoclinic]

It's obviously early still but my first round thoughts are solidifying around a smaller group of players.

These three are not in order. They are the top of my board right now. I'm assuming Sadiq and Ioane don't fall.

1. TJ Parker - Just a really good solid pick. Will be productive although maybe not game-changing productive.

2. CJ Allen - The tackling sucked without Spillane. Allen just feels like such a Vrabel pick. Young too.

3. Dillon Thienemann - Another really solid pick but with center field upside. Might depend on whether we re-sign Hawkins.


Would consider

1. Emmanuel Pregnon - Interior OL is such a need and he's one of the best zone blockers in the draft.

2. Monroe Freeling - Still not completely sold on him as a first rounder but that LT/RT flexibility appeals.

3. Denzel Boston - A copy/paste long-term replacement for Mack Hollins.

I just watched a Sikkema/Rogers mock and all but Boston were on the board. They took R Mason Thomas which I didn't like and I found myself really hoping they'd take Parker or Allen.

Some thoughts, thinking about "what if we got Jim Schwartz at DC":

- Schwartz likes a lot of man coverage
- He likes a lot of single high free safety
- He prioritizes highly mobile MLBs (think Carson Schwesinger)
- He prioritizes aggressive pressure off the edges, and interior disruption

Whether or not Schwartz becomes an opportunity, I think the Terrell Willuams/Mike Vrabel version will bear a lot of similarities.

Thinking of guys who would fit this, and who might be available:

- EDGE: Akheem Mesidor, Zion Young, Malachi Lawrence
- DT: Lee Hunter, Caleb Banks
- LB: CJ Allen, Jeremiah Trotter
- S: Dillon Thieneman, Treydan Stukes
- CB: Devin Moore, Colton Hood, Kelley Moore, Jyaire Hill
- I also think Keionte Scott and Aveion Terrell would be ideal Schwartz nickels

 

[stelfans]

With the Browns firing Kevin Stefanski, there is a high chance DC Jim Schwartz will be let go. Schwartz runs a very aggressive defensive scheme. He worked with Vrabel at Cleveland, and for Vrabel in Tennessee.

I would love to see Terrell Austin moved to a more advisory role like Assistant HC, with Schwartz as DC, especially given Austin's health issues. Schwartz as DC and McDaniels as OC would be epic - they would push each other's squad to greater heights.

There is already some talk about him getting HC consideration so o don’t know if that’s gonna be possible. But, I would love for that to happen.

 

[manxman2601]

It's obviously early still but my first round thoughts are solidifying around a smaller group of players.

These three are not in order. They are the top of my board right now. I'm assuming Sadiq and Ioane don't fall.

1. TJ Parker - Just a really good solid pick. Will be productive although maybe not game-changing productive.

2. CJ Allen - The tackling sucked without Spillane. Allen just feels like such a Vrabel pick. Young too.

3. Dillon Thienemann - Another really solid pick but with center field upside. Might depend on whether we re-sign Hawkins.


Would consider

1. Emmanuel Pregnon - Interior OL is such a need and he's one of the best zone blockers in the draft.

2. Monroe Freeling - Still not completely sold on him as a first rounder but that LT/RT flexibility appeals.

3. Denzel Boston - A copy/paste long-term replacement for Mack Hollins.

I just watched a Sikkema/Rogers mock and all but Boston were on the board. They took R Mason Thomas which I didn't like and I found myself really hoping they'd take Parker or Allen.

I'm bumping Monroe Freeling up to my top rank. I still would like to see him get better in the run game but he'd have a year to develop on that front. He's a top quality backup in year one for both Campbell and Moses and RT of the future.

 

[mayoclinic]

Finally.

 

[manxman2601]

Finally.

Tonight's the night we find out he isn't declaring.

 

[Clonamery]

I'm bumping Monroe Freeling up to my top rank. I still would like to see him get better in the run game but he'd have a year to develop on that front. He's a top quality backup in year one for both Campbell and Moses and RT of the future.

We win the SB...Moses retires.

 

[PatsFan2]

Don't roast me for this, this is more a thought experiment than a trade I'd actually advocate for. I don't know how I feel about it but I think I could live with it. However, I am not suggesting we target off-loading Gonzo.

1. Trade Christian Gonzalez for a 2026 first and second and 2027 first. I'd want more than what the Jets got for Sauce Gardner. I wouldn't trade Gonzo for less.

2. Use our two '26 first rounders to trade up for David Bailey.

3. Use our additional 2nd rounder to draft Devin Moore.

In return for trading Gonzo, yes we lose something at CB, but gain a potentially elite edge rusher for the next five years, an additional first round pick in '27 and lots of cap space flexibility in the coming few years.

You said roast how about being tarred and feathered??

 

[PatsFan2]

With the Browns firing Kevin Stefanski, there is a high chance DC Jim Schwartz will be let go. Schwartz runs a very aggressive defensive scheme. He worked with Vrabel at Cleveland, and for Vrabel in Tennessee.

I would love to see Terrell Austin moved to a more advisory role like Assistant HC, with Schwartz as DC, especially given Austin's health issues. Schwartz as DC and McDaniels as OC would be epic - they would push each other's squad to greater heights.

Unbelievable it's Terrel Williams mayo.

 

[BobDigital]

Here is where i am on the off season thoughts. BTW pats have 44M in cap space after the top 51... so call it 42M

Chaisson is going to potentially get a reasonably big contract. But look at him with and without Williams in the line up. Without that top tier presence he did practically nothing. He isn't even a particularly good edge setter. I am glad we got that sample of play cause it made clear any big money going to him would basically be just paying for the production Williams gives you. Don't pay for the same production twice. This isn't saying i wouldn't resign him. But if he is looking for a 10m/yr deal I think I'd go else where... I don't think Ponder will be much worse next year. So if he cost too much i let him walk. I think he has shown his production is replaceable for less than a contract like that. 5-6M/year? Okay... That is solid rotational Edge money. I'd be okay with them paying it. But I'd like them to explore looking for another starter in FA but particularly in the draft.

Lowe, Gibbens, Tonga. Hawkins and to a lesser extent Hooper and Devito are all guys i want to resign. They can afford to do them all. Lowe has shown he can be our back up LT. Pay the man, unless someone comes in to try to pay him starter money. But i don't see that happening. Hawkins is an interesting case too. He has massively upped his value with a career year. Can he repeat it? No idea. But maybe he is just really solid in this scheme? But i think he will cost more than we'd want to pay, and seeing he is going to be 29 next year he will be taking no discounts.

Devito is a RFA and i think they should keep him over Dobbs if possible. Hooper depends a lot on what else you do. Do you plan to draft a TE high or bring in a new younger guy? Hooper's production hasn't been worth the 5M they paid, but that's only because Henry was healthy all year. We know Hooper could have stepped in to a degree. A top end insurance policy. Should they do it again or look somewhere else? Kind of depends what pops up in FA and the draft. Personally I would rather just keep Henry and draft a guy. So many competent TEs are coming out these days, all they need to do is pull the trigger and scoop one up. Rairdon for instance be my choice.

As for guys I'd cut...

Onwenu... The only reason to potentially keep him is cause he could play back up OT... but with Lowe, how decent Munford was and Bryant in the pipe line... I don't think that will ever be needed. So ship him off and save 17.5M. We don't need OT depth,,, but a future starter be nice in the draft if one falls to us... though they don't need to do that this year.

Mapu is also a cut. He's 5th on the depth chart, has been bad this year and is not going to get better. That 5th spot should be for a developmental player anyway. Make space for a promising rookie. Give his money to sign Gibbens. It will only amount to 750K... but whatever.

Jennings is a guy I like, but an obvious cut at this point. 4M in the bank.

Dobbs depends on how they feel about Devito... He did okay when forced to fill... but it is such a small sample size and we know what he is. This really felt like a bridge back up QB... and frankly I don't like to spend resources on a back up QB much at all unless they are special. That 3.7M is easy money if Devito shows he isn't a massive step down.

None of these are revelations but now that the regular season is in the bag they feel more set in stone as the right calls.

 

[BobDigital]

Building off the previous post... here is what i am.

Cut - Onwenu, Mapu, Dobbs, Jennings = 17.5M, 1.5, 3.7 and 4 = 26.7M - 4M (pretty much base salary) = 22.7M

This brings your total cash to 66.7M for your top 51/ 64.7M for top 53

Sign

Gibbens 2 years 5M = 2M 2026 (Ben Brown like deal)
Hawkins 3 years 24M = 6.5M 2026 (This is more like a 2 year contract and the lowest he can be had for right now... if he proves it next year extend another year).
Lowe 2 years 5.5M = 2..5M 2026
Tonga 2 years 10M = 4.5M 2026
Devito 2 years 4M - 1.5M 2026

I think Chaisson probably gets a big contract we don't match (he probably gets 12M+ per year somewhere) and maybe Hooper decides to retire or they part ways. Since Henry. Diggs and Hollins will be here next year they badly need to focus on building youth around Maye. Hooper is the obvious place to start.

So overall after the Pats are done signing their guys they spend 17M and have 47.7M left

Personally I don't find thie FA class all that impressive, and that is before teams have even started to sign their own guys. So depending on how this looks maybe paying for Hooper and Chaisson will turn out to be the right play. But if someone shakes look I'd be happy signing another big name player. And there are easily guards who could replace Onwenu's production cheaper and better.

Regardless... drafting a future Edge and OL option early is needed... being on the look out for a future Davis replacement for after this year is an option too. If he play doesn't improve next year he is an absolute cut candidate in 2027.. and you'd hate to have a rookie step into that role.

 

[BobDigital]

Part 3 of post - the draft. When you look to draft it isn't just about this year but next year. So the draft of 2026 should also keep 2027 in mind. Particularly your salary cap. If you want to stay a top team for a long period of time you want to have solutions for your big contracts in place a year before some of the time. You can't afford to pay everyone their value and be a championship team. So what contracts in 2027 should we look to replace?

The top ones are in order Milton. Diggs, Barmore, Davis and Landry for 30M 26.5M 23.6M 22M and 18M respectively. We can't pay them all... Milton you don't touch. Barmore depends..... Everyone else should be on the hot seat.

WR has become a plug and play position for top end talent. If you pick a guy in rd 1 there is a good chance they can get you close to 1K yards... so we don't need to pick a WR in 2026 for 27... but it should be strongly considered still IMO... (However a pass catcher of some kind is a must IMO). Davis and Landry are the obvious choices... We will pick Edge this year anyway... but a double dip wouldn't be out of line. As for Davis... you want to be early on CBs... so picking his successor now wouldn't be a bad idea.

Something like

r1 - OL
r2 - Edge
rd3 - CB
rd4 TE
rd4 Edge

to me makes a lot of sense. I won't pick names but i imagine there are a number of players at each spot you could pick who would make sense who are likely to be there.