2026 Draft: Safety

[mayoclinic]

That was my take on Thieneman way back when we started the Watch thread in April.

I do think Jelani McDonald, Zakee Wheatley and Treydan Stukes offer similar range and more versatility.

I would in no way be opposed to Thieneman, but not quite sold on 1st round just yet.

 

[stelfans]

I think Dillon Thieneman might have separated himself as Safety 2 in this draft and I now have him as a potential first round pick for us because he offers something (range) that no other safety really provides. I'm looking forward to watching him against Texas Tech and their deep ball offense.

Im still a little bit worried about his tackling. We just saw against the ravens how important that is, Hawkins Was 3rd in tackles I believe, but I like thieneman a lot.

 

[manxman2601]

Im still a little bit worried about his tackling. We just saw against the ravens how important that is, Hawkins Was 3rd in tackles I believe, but I like thieneman a lot.

It was a concern for me to for a while but he actually has an almost identical missed tackle rate to Craig Woodson which has re-assured me.

 

[manxman2601]

The case for Kamari Ramsey, USC

I had largely dismissed Kamari Ramsey as a Patriots pick for two reasons:

1. At the start of the season I looked at missed tackle rates of safeties from '24 in response to a comment I'd seen from Patriots defensive coaching staff about the required ability for safeties to make open field tackles. Ramsey did not look good going into this season with a '24 missed tackle rate of 20%.

2. further, I dismissed him during the year because he'd almost exclusively played this year as a nickel corner rather than as a safety.

I am re-considering and here's why.

1. He's fixed his missed tackle issues with only 1 all year which is pretty remarkable for a DB.
2. Remembering that in pre-season safety rankings, he was Safety 2 or 3 based upon his play as a free safety.
3. Adding nickel corner reps this year adds to his versatitlity.
4. His career coverage grades have been terrific. If you look at his three full seasons, his annual coverage grades are:

'23 - 77.7 (mainly FS)
'24 - 88.1 (mainly FS)
'25 - 80.1 (mainly NCB)

I have two main concerns.

1. At 6', 205 he's only just into ideal safety size. I'd like both to be a bit higher.
2. Only 2 career interceptions. I'd like him to get his hands on the ball more often.

I wouldn't take him in the first two rounds but I do think he'd be a solid round 3-4 pick in that Bray Hubbard, Keon Sabb area.

 

[mayoclinic]

With Jelani McDonald going back to Texas, my main day 2 S options for the Pats are Thieneman, Wheatley, and Treydan Stukes as a nickel/S. Maybe McNeil-Warren. Amare Ferrell as a borderline day 2/3 guy.

Not happy right now.

 

[stelfans]

The case for Kamari Ramsey, USC

I had largely dismissed Kamari Ramsey as a Patriots pick for two reasons:

1. At the start of the season I looked at missed tackle rates of safeties from '24 in response to a comment I'd seen from Patriots defensive coaching staff about the required ability for safeties to make open field tackles. Ramsey did not look good going into this season with a '24 missed tackle rate of 20%.

2. further, I dismissed him during the year because he'd almost exclusively played this year as a nickel corner rather than as a safety.

I am re-considering and here's why.

1. He's fixed his missed tackle issues with only 1 all year which is pretty remarkable for a DB.
2. Remembering that in pre-season safety rankings, he was Safety 2 or 3 based upon his play as a free safety.
3. Adding nickel corner reps this year adds to his versatitlity.
4. His career coverage grades have been terrific. If you look at his three full seasons, his annual coverage grades are:

'23 - 77.7 (mainly FS)
'24 - 88.1 (mainly FS)
'25 - 80.1 (mainly NCB)

I have two main concerns.

1. At 6', 205 he's only just into ideal safety size. I'd like both to be a bit higher.
2. Only 2 career interceptions. I'd like him to get his hands on the ball more often.

I wouldn't take him in the first two rounds but I do think he'd be a solid round 3-4 pick in that Bray Hubbard, Keon Sabb area.

I’ve dismissed him mainly due to his lack of production but you never know how this will translate.
Right now I have Haulcy, Thieneman, McNeill, Hubbard, Wheatley and Taaffe. But there are a lot more possibilities. This is another class where it would be very disappointing not to come away with at least a guy that can contribute right away.

 

[manxman2601]

I’ve dismissed him mainly due to his lack of production but you never know how this will translate.
Right now I have Haulcy, Thieneman, McNeill, Hubbard, Wheatley and Taaffe. But there are a lot more possibilities. This is another class where it would be very disappointing not to come away with at least a guy that can contribute right away.

The problem is, it's a numbers game. We have five top 4 round picks. We need edge/safety/RT/iOLx2/LB/backup DBs and that's before we even start to consider skill positions on offense. FA will address some of those, but maybe re-signing Hawkins and pushing the problem to '27 isn't a bad play. Hawkins has been respectable.

 

[mayoclinic]

100% agree it's a number game, which is why my favorite prospect is Mr. BPA. (Actually, my favorite prospect probably Mr. Redshirt Sophomore Who Returned to School and Therefore Not Available, but that's another story.)

OT, IOL (possibly 2), EDGE, LB, S, CB. That's 6-7. TE and WR not out of the question.

The good news is (1) not all immediate and critical, (2) some may be filled in FA, and (3) it's a deep draft. I could see bundling some of those 6th round picks to move up if potential players of interest slip. I could also see living with what we have for another year at some positions.

 

[stelfans]

The problem is, it's a numbers game. We have five top 4 round picks. We need edge/safety/RT/iOLx2/LB/backup DBs and that's before we even start to consider skill positions on offense. FA will address some of those, but maybe re-signing Hawkins and pushing the problem to '27 isn't a bad play. Hawkins has been respectable.

True but like you say I think FA will address some of that. For example LB is not only a deep class on the draft but there are also some quality FA’s. I’m more inclined to push the tackle situation into 27. And how do they really feel about Onwenu?
EDGE isn’t great, I’d like to deal with that on FA or trade.
Ideally I’d go IOL and S early on.

 

[manxman2601]

True but like you say I think FA will address some of that. For example LB is not only a deep class on the draft but there are also some quality FA’s. I’m more inclined to push the tackle situation into 27. And how do they really feel about Onwenu?
EDGE isn’t great, I’d like to deal with that on FA or trade.
Ideally I’d go IOL and S early on.

After watching Lowe struggle against the Ravens, a swing tackle who can replace Moses long-term at RT is becoming an important consideration for me. I think Hawkins has been fine this year and I'm not opposed to just re-signing him on a 2 year deal. I agree that perhaps EDGE gets taken care of in FA or trade.

As for safety and linebacker, this is clearly a decent-good class for both worth taking advantage of. At the same time, they could just re-sign Hawkins and go into '26 with a pretty much identical roster in place that has helped us to a 13/14 win season. My view is that these two positions are definitely worth upgrading with the right player but not necessarily essential.

Whether through FA or draft, I'd say:

Essential - EDGE, 1 x iOL (two if we cut Onwenu), OT, backup CB, S (if we don't re-sign Hawkins), TE2

Priority but not essential - S (if we re-sign Hawkins), LB,

Luxury - WR, TE1, RB, backup QB, CB2 (ie. future Davis replacement), EDGE 2 (future Landry replacement), DT (higher if we don't re-sign Tonga)

 

[mayoclinic]

Because this draft is so deep, I keep wishing we had more day 2 and early day 3 picks.

- RT/swing OT: Monroe Freeling, PJ Williams, Max Iheanachor, Niki Prongos

- IOL: Austin Siereveld, Carter Smith, Kenyon Green, Kade Pieper

- EDGE: Akheem Mesidor, Malachi Lawrence, Kenyatta Jackson

- LB: Jake Golday, Ben Roberts

- DB: Keionte Scott, Zakee Wheatley, Treydan Stukes

None of those is a consensus 1st round pick right now. All would add a ton of versatility and athleticism.

 

[mayoclinic]

Jelani McDonald is messing up my all-RS Sophomore draft:

1. Trevor Goosby, OT, Texas
2. Yhonzae Pierre, LB/EDGE, Alabama
3. Jamari Johnson, TE, Oregon
4a. Jelani McDonald, S, Texas
4b. Kade Pieper, IOL, Iowa

 

[manxman2601]

 

[mayoclinic]

Don't do that until after we draft you, d%#*!@t!

 

[manxman2601]

I've been doing some PFF research trying to find the best coverage safety (it's probably Thieneman) but I came across this little nugget. in '24, Craig Woodson had the most forced incompletions among drafted safeties with 8.

The best this year are Amare Ferrell (7), Genesis Smith (6) and then Haulcy, Thieneman and Hubbard on 5.

 

[manxman2601]

Safety dilemma solved?

My dilemma is this. We need a safety, this is an excellent class to draft one but at the same time, I like Hawkins enough where I think we could re-sign him relatively cheaply and deal with what I think are bigger needs to tackle like OL, pass rush and even backup DB help. Now to say I've solved this dilemma is exaggeration for effect but I have found an intriguing solution.

Tao Johnson, S, Utah, 6-1, 193-200lbs
This is your Mccourty-esque single-high coverage safety option.

Firstly, I want to deal with the elephant in the room. Johnson has a very high 20% missed tackle rate but there are some mitigating factors I'll deal with later.

The Good
Johnson has the lowest QB rating against of all draftable safeties of 21.5. He has only allowed 8 catches on 24 targets. In man coverage he has only allowed 2 catches on 12 targets for 12 yards. He has 4 PBUs and 2 INTs on the year.

He's a very good athlete listed as 4.44 and his close to the ball on film is outstanding.

His poor tackle rates are not down to lack of willing. Johnson is extremely aggressive in the tackle and is absolutely not afraid to lay the lumber.

I can't verify this but NFL Draft Buzz describe him as a "special teams demon".


The Mitigation
He's in only his third season as a defensive player, he's a former QB and WR which is why I'm willing to give him a pass on his tackling. The willingness is there, it's just his technique that is lacking. However, I see a lot of upside that I'd be willing to bank on.Re-sign Hawkins, bring Johnson in as a backup developmental safety and let him cook on ST while continuing to learn to play defense.

 

[manxman2601]

2025 highlights (#5)



2024 highlights (#15)

 

[Clonamery]

Good closing speed.

 

[mayoclinic]

To compare and contrast, tackle rates last season:

Craig Woodson - 8 missed tackles, 8.6% missed tackle rate.

Selected 2025 Prospects in 2024

Caleb Downs - 10, 10.5

Michael Taafe - 19, 21.3

Dillon Thieneman - 15, 12.8

Kamari Ramsey - 15, 20.8

Keon Sabb - 6, 14.0

Rod Moore - Didn't Play

Tao Johnson - 13, 16.3

Clearly Michael Taafe and Kamari Ramsey need to improve this year.

Not concerned with the missed tackle rate?

 

[manxman2601]

Not concerned with tge missed tackle rate?

Yes. I talked about that in my post. I think it's coachable. It's not because he's scared to hit but because he's only been playing on defense for three years.