Patriots Pregame Thread Bills - Pats line (Patriots vs Bills Pregame Thread)

[BobDigital]

So I have an odd take. Wouldn't it be to the Bills advantage if we beat them? Not that they will see it that way, but it is kind of true.

The biggest home field advantage in all of sports year round (not counting early in the year in Miami) is Mile High. It is hard to win there.

If the Bills beat us, that makes it much more likely the road to the super bowl on the AFC side goes through Denver. We'd then need to win out and hope they go 2-2... which they might, but maybe not. A lose of any kind really makes it less likely for the Pats to take the top seed.

And what do the Bills gain beating us? Probably not the Division... It becomes possible, but not likely. And the first seed is almost certainly out the window for them at this point. So they are playing 4 games on the road anyway. At most the Bills get the second seed. But their HFA isn't amazing and it only be one game as the 3rd seed most likely. They just play better there. But even that depends on the how the Jags do. But long story short... They are unlikely to get the second seed even if we go 2-2.

So what is best for the Bills? Playing in Denver or Gillette? 100% Gillette. Yes it be hard.. but not as hard IMO. They are use to the conditions of winter in Gillette. They play in the same. What would the easiest path for the Bills be as they likely can't get the #2 seed? Probably us and hoping Denver as the 2nd seed gets tripped up before they play them. Which is much more likely if they have to play 2 opponents than 1.

I doubt this has been considered by them of course.

 

[mgteich]

.. I see your points. However who's the 11-2 team LAR or NEP?... in so many ways appears as while NE has put themselves back on the map.. the stench of 4-13 seems by some talking heads not to escape them.. probably going to take them to best the bills again to get into the 1 spot?...

I guess that my primary point is that there is no real clear #1 or #2 or #3, or clear favorites. On a neutral field, I don't think that we should we be strongly favored against any of the other 5.

AFC: NE and DEN are the obvious favorites, with BUF having a tougher road as a WC.
NFC: LAR and GB are the favorites, with SEA having a tougher road as a WC.

 

[Triumph]

 

[Triumph]

 

[Triumph]

 

[mayoclinic]

3 goals:

1. Win Division
2. Host playoff games
3. Win SB

#1 happens Sunday night.

 

[mgteich]

So I have an odd take. Wouldn't it be to the Bills advantage if we beat them? Not that they will see it that way, but it is kind of true.

The biggest home field advantage in all of sports year round (not counting early in the year in Miami) is Mile High. It is hard to win there.

If the Bills beat us, that makes it much more likely the road to the super bowl on the AFC side goes through Denver. We'd then need to win out and hope they go 2-2... which they might, but maybe not. A lose of any kind really makes it less likely for the Pats to take the top seed.

And what do the Bills gain beating us? Probably not the Division... It becomes possible, but not likely. And the first seed is almost certainly out the window for them at this point. So they are playing 4 games on the road anyway. At most the Bills get the second seed. But their HFA isn't amazing and it only be one game as the 3rd seed most likely. They just play better there. But even that depends on the how the Jags do. But long story short... They are unlikely to get the second seed even if we go 2-2.

So what is best for the Bills? Playing in Denver or Gillette? 100% Gillette. Yes it be hard.. but not as hard IMO. They are use to the conditions of winter in Gillette. They play in the same. What would the easiest path for the Bills be as they likely can't get the #2 seed? Probably us and hoping Denver as the 2nd seed gets tripped up before they play them. Which is much more likely if they have to play 2 opponents than 1.

I doubt this has been considered by them of course.

Aren't the top 4 seeds the division winners? Could a WC be the #2 seed?

 

[Gumby]

This is an excerpt from a John Breech post for CBS Sports. I'm afraid it represents my thoughts exactly. I will be ecstatic to be proven wrong on Sunday.

"I'm not totally shocked to see that the Patriots are an underdog here and that's mostly because I'm still not sure how good they are. For the most part, I feel like I can tell if a team is any good after FOURTEEN WEEKS, but with the Patriots, I still have no idea. There are 14 teams in the NFL this year with eight or more wins and the Patriots have somehow only faced one of those teams (They beat the Bills 23-20 back in Week 5).


There are nine teams averaging more than 25 points per game this year, the Patriots have faced exactly one of them (The Bills). There are 13 defenses in the NFL giving up less than 22 points per game and the Patriots have faced ZERO of them. I think what I'm trying to say here is that the Patriots haven't really been tested."

Slightly selective stat use:
Why 22 points for ‘team D’ and 13 of 32 teams, because that lets you exclude Bills at 22.6. Going 23 and 16 teams means you faced 3 of 16.

Why 9 at 25 vs 16 at 23.6+; because that allows you to exclude cincy at 24.2; instead of again 3 of 16 with a 4th due in coming weeks ( out of top 16 teams).

And oh by the way you have to take one off each of those did not face numbers because NE is one of those 13 Ds and those 9 Os. How are they supposed to face themselves?

That doesn’t even get into that those are overall team metrics. how many of those points were ST or turnover generated versus a true O or D measurement. If you compare vs our O performance vs avg D performance of opponents and our D performance versus opponents avg O performance; I BELIEVE (w/o facts ready) that NE would look like they faced better competition than posited.

 

[mgteich]

3 goals:

1. Win Division
2. Host playoff games
3. Win SB

#1 happens Sunday night.

I guess your #2 is really get the bye. Otherwise, we play the championship game at DEN unless someone beats them.

 

[mayoclinic]

No.

Those are Vrabel's stated goals, not mine.

Vrabel's word choice shows the Patriots' bar officially has been raised

Mike Vrabel's use of the word "champions" in recent days seems intentional as the Patriots reset their expectations, writes Tom E. Curran.

sports.yahoo.com

And "host playoff games" does not imply bye. We could get #2 seed and host 2 games before AFCCG, 3 if Denver loses.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

Aren't the top 4 seeds the division winners? Could a WC be the #2 seed?

The best that a WC can be seeded is #5. The div winners are 1 thru 4 regardless of records.

 

[BobDigital]

Aren't the top 4 seeds the division winners? Could a WC be the #2 seed?

No... sorry i wasn't being clear. I meant if they beat us and over take us they probably end up as best the 3 seed cause to expect the Jags to lose enough to not at least have the 2 seed vs them (when the Jags have tie breakers I believe) is unrealistic.

There is a universe when they get the 2 or even 1 seed... but super unlikely. 3 is likely the best they could hope for.. but more likely they are the 5th max even if they beat us. So with that in mind they would be better off not having to go through Denver and Gillette and the best chance of that is the Pats as the 1 seed IMO.

 

[doesntmatter1]

I think our defense matches up against the Bills better than most teams in the league. Their wrs aren't overly threatening and our safeties have done a decent job against tight ends in general. Our run defense has taken a hit with some injuries but we did manage to bottle up their run game last time. Even though I think the Bills are a better team overall, I think we have the edge.

 

[p8ryts]

Buffalo has faced only 2 - 8 win teams this season and lost both.

The 9 Buffalo wins are vs the Ravens, Jets, Saints, Panthers, Steelers, Bengals, Buccaneers, Chiefs and Dolphins who are all sub .500 teams.

The Ravens are on the brink of missing the post season.
The Steelers QB has a broken wrist.
The Chiefs are on life support.

I dont know who the Bills are.

We will find out Sunday who the Bills and Patriots really are.

 

[scott99]

Remember this game like it was yesterday. It was a wild game.

 

[scott99]

We will find out Sunday who the Bills and Patriots really are.

Not necessarily, what happens Sunday doesn’t mean anything come playoff time. If the Bills win, Pats still have the division lead. If the Pats win, they win the division and are shooting for a bye. But once the playoffs start, doesn’t mean anything.

Remember the Pats killing the Jets 45-3 in 2010, then losing to the same Jets in the playoffs.

 

[neuronet]

I don't love him doubling down on this nonsense. This isn't Indianapolis. I guess whatever works to get the players motivated. This is a regular season game that means very little. I'd rather lose now and beat them in the playoffs, if I had to choose one.

 

[mgteich]

We will find out Sunday who the Bills and Patriots really are.

perhaps, if our perspective is the usual one or two weeks
==========
No matter who wins, in 4 weeks as we look into the playoffs, we will be the division winner and #2 seed and BUF be the #5 or #6 seed. And from that perspective, this game will not be the hugely season-defining game so many of us think it is. In the end, we both have 3 other games that will be almost equally important to the seeding.

 

[Triumph]

Remember this game like it was yesterday. It was a wild game.

Andelman was a Beast.

 

[Triumph]

I don't love him doubling down on this nonsense. This isn't Indianapolis. I guess whatever works to get the players motivated. This is a regular season game that means very little. I'd rather lose now and beat them in the playoffs, if I had to choose one.

Taking the Division away from Buffalo in the Pats house speaks volumes.