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a quick look at 2026 FA

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On top of Chaisson and Tonga, I'd add Hawkins, Gibbins and even Pettus if they come cheap enough. I like most of the depth on the roster. That doesn't mean I wouldn't draft a safety or a linebacker but with the window we're in, I like the continuity bringing guys back add and means we don't have to risk starting later round rookies from day one.

OLand pass rush are the priority whether through the draft or FA. My concern with Chaisson is simply that he becomes too expensive if he puts up the 10+ sack year he's on target for.
 
That makes him below average in pressure rate I don't want Fries either. I think we can afford to go young at RG, especially if we can keep Moses.

The lower the Pressure Rate, the better. So 2.3% is a good thing. Not a bad one.
 
The main reason they declined it is that, somehow, the NFL still treats all OLs the same for tag/option purposes, so guards and centers get paid as if they were tackles.

You can thank the NFLPA for that.
 
I don't see that as a realistic contract. No way he takes multiple years for such low money IMO. Remember, with where he was drafted he's already made $43,959,680 in his career. If there isn't a big multi year deal out there, you have to think he'd take a 1 year deal where he can try again next year.

Your deal of 2 years, $10M is obviously designed for him to be a breakout candidate and then we get the 2nd year super cheap. That's the type of deal you get a semi-unproven later round pick for who hasn't made much money and if you put enough guarantees in the 2nd year that it's a "real" 2 year deal it's worth it for them because $10M is still a lot of money if you haven't made much (in NFL terms). A guy like Pitts who's already made $44M isn't going to lock himself into a low 2nd year like that. Unrealistic.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Pitts want a deal somewhere between the 3/$39M and 4/$80 range. The low end is $13M, which is where OTC projects the 2026 Franchise tag to be. The upper end is 20M, which is slightly more than Kittle. Now, as we all know, what a player WANTS isn't what he necessarily gets.

I agree with you that it's unlikely that Pitts takes a 2yr/20M deal ($10M/yr). He might take a 1yr PROVE it deal at $13M with a guarantee from the team not to franchise him if he lights things up, but the team would have the Right of First Refusal as well, meaning they could match a deal.
 
How much of this is on the player. He was a first round pick. Hooper was a first round pick for Atlanta, he was far more productive.

I'm not spending real money on a draft bust, nope.
@TommyD4207 @PatsFan2 @Zuma @TheRainMaker

You guys all know I've been in on Jaire Alexander since last off season..

There's not a better time than now for Vrabel to go get him... guys been an all pro.. injuries have been an issue.. however he's only 28.. and he would be a great veteran to help in the secondary.. I would prefer him over 20M C. Davis.. but anyhow.. just a thought.. he could really be beneficial down the stretch here IMO..https://share.newsbreak.com/fwyjazlc
 
Right and that still applies for the tag like it did the option.

Reports are they fully intend to keep him long term, but declined the option because of what you said. The reason why having that bloated year is bad for a player you want to sign is because it's such a bad spot in negotiating for the team.

Creed Humphrey is the highest paid center in the NFL at 4 years, $72M with $50M guaranteed. If BAL picked up the option, Lindebaum would have 1 year, $23M guaranteed already. Lindebaum is good enough where a set the market kind of contract is realistic and unless BAL blows him away way over Humphrey, the one year option creates a situation where he's better off just going to FA again the next year were he could get the same kind of contract still except already with a huge 1 year payout. Or they tag him and then he matched Humphrey's guarantee while still getting to be a FA again in 2028 at an age where he could set the market while already having $50M in the bank.

The tag and option years are getting so high where they no longer serve as good placeholders to work out extensions. They actually disincentivize the player from signing them because they get life changing money security without having to lock themselves in. Their earning power is way more going year to year at that point.

That's not how the 5th year option works. Lindebaum would have been at $20.99M because he made 2 Pro-Bowls as an original ballot selection.


The Top 5 salaries for Centers in the NFL right now are 18M, 17M, 14M, 12.5M, and 12M. My guess is that you'd need to be closer to the $18M than the 12M to get a deal done. 5yr/90M - 100M with 50M guaranteed.
 
The options are actually not that high. Gonzo's option will be about $12M.

Linderbaum is a special case because he's already a 2-time original ballot Pro Bowler, and the NFLPA managed to get such players the franchise tag amount for their option, on top of the "premium" for guards and centers.
It's not the Franchise tag amount. It's less than that amount. Lindebaum's number was 20.99M. The Franchise tag for 2025 for O-linemen was $23.4M.
 
On top of Chaisson and Tonga, I'd add Hawkins, Gibbins and even Pettus if they come cheap enough. I like most of the depth on the roster. That doesn't mean I wouldn't draft a safety or a linebacker but with the window we're in, I like the continuity bringing guys back add and means we don't have to risk starting later round rookies from day one.

OLand pass rush are the priority whether through the draft or FA. My concern with Chaisson is simply that he becomes too expensive if he puts up the 10+ sack year he's on target for.
Dell Pettus is on his 4yr rookie deal. This is year 2.
Gibbens should be cheap to retain as well. Probably at 2-3M/yr.

Chaisson isn't going to become too expensive. He'll end up in the 10M-15M /yr range.
 
That's not how the 5th year option works. Lindebaum would have been at $20.99M because he made 2 Pro-Bowls as an original ballot selection.


The Top 5 salaries for Centers in the NFL right now are 18M, 17M, 14M, 12.5M, and 12M. My guess is that you'd need to be closer to the $18M than the 12M to get a deal done. 5yr/90M - 100M with 50M guaranteed.
True, i shouldn't have said 5th year options in a way that was all-inclusive. It's just these one-off cases with the pro bowl voting. It also depends on player's ages, but in their prime guys coming off rookie deals are usually better off financially taking the tag/pro bowl infused option and then going into FA the year after vs. signing a "fair" long term deal. Huge 1 year pay day and then FA still in your prime is better long term, so it's a tough negotiating starting point for the team.
 
On top of Chaisson and Tonga, I'd add Hawkins, Gibbins and even Pettus if they come cheap enough. I like most of the depth on the roster. That doesn't mean I wouldn't draft a safety or a linebacker but with the window we're in, I like the continuity bringing guys back add and means we don't have to risk starting later round rookies from day one.

OLand pass rush are the priority whether through the draft or FA. My concern with Chaisson is simply that he becomes too expensive if he puts up the 10+ sack year he's on target for.
Tonga, Hawkins, Gibbens, petus will all be extended.. Gibbens has been solid and brings some physicality to the LB spots.. I believe most of the pending FA will want to stay here.. even Tavai.. all these guys have carved out roles for themselves. This is how championship pedigree teams are made. Like Parcells said before you need the Jimmie's and Joe's on a team as well as star players.
 
Just to level set...

We started last offseason with about $127M in cap space. We're currently at $53.2M. So all of our offseason activity and half a season's worth of roster moves cost $73.8M in cap space. We currently project to start with $51.2M of cap space this offseason per Overthecap.

With $73.8M of cap space we signed/re-signed: Milton Williams, Carlton Davis, Stephon Diggs, Robert Spillane, Harold Landry, Morgan Moses, Austin Hooper, Christian Elliss, Garrett Bradbury, Mack Hollins, K'Lavon Chaisson, Josh Dobbs, Khyiris Tonga, Jaylinn Hawkins, Jack Gibbens

Last year we piked #4 and Will Campbell signed for an $840K minimum salary and then his cap number has a $7.1M charge for the signing bonus amortization. For comparison, the #32 pick (Josh Simmons) singed for that same minimum salary but his signing bonus pro ration is only $1.8M. We'll be picking closer to #32 than #4 this year, so our rookie class will be cheaper too.

Re-signing or replacing a fairly limited list of contributors (Chaisson, Tonga, Hawkins, Hooper, Gibbens) and still adding more players shouldn't be much of an issue this offseason. And they don't HAVE to open up holes on the roster by releasing players to do it either. They do have to manage somewhat for the long term because part of why we have so much cap space is because we have so few 2nd contract players due to bad drafting over the year yielding hardly anyone to re-sign and they have to expect that to no longer be the case so budget accordingly. But we're hardly up against any tight times financially right now.
 
The lower the Pressure Rate, the better. So 2.3% is a good thing. Not a bad one.
Thank you for your patience. My brain was not working.

Edit: wait, I cited the wrong metric. He has an average time to pressure of 2.65 which is below the average of 2.8. Marginal but still below average.
 
@TommyD4207 @PatsFan2 @Zuma @TheRainMaker

You guys all know I've been in on Jaire Alexander since last off season..

There's not a better time than now for Vrabel to go get him... guys been an all pro.. injuries have been an issue.. however he's only 28.. and he would be a great veteran to help in the secondary.. I would prefer him over 20M C. Davis.. but anyhow.. just a thought.. he could really be beneficial down the stretch here IMO..https://share.newsbreak.com/fwyjazlc
He's missed a total of 25-30 games the past 3 seasons. He's going to be 29 yo in 2-3 months. The Patriots are building for the future.
 
It's not the Franchise tag amount. It's less than that amount. Lindebaum's number was 20.99M. The Franchise tag for 2025 for O-linemen was $23.4M.
His option amount was $23.4M.


And the CBA says that a player who makes two Pro Bowls on the first ballot gets the franchise tender from his fourth year.

 
@TommyD4207 @PatsFan2 @Zuma @TheRainMaker

You guys all know I've been in on Jaire Alexander since last off season..

There's not a better time than now for Vrabel to go get him... guys been an all pro.. injuries have been an issue.. however he's only 28.. and he would be a great veteran to help in the secondary.. I would prefer him over 20M C. Davis.. but anyhow.. just a thought.. he could really be beneficial down the stretch here IMO..https://share.newsbreak.com/fwyjazlc
There's a reason the Ravens let him go, it's not like they have a ton of corner help.

I think he's cooked. Reminds me of when everyone wanted to trade for Jalen Ramsey a couple years ago.

Carlton Davis is waaaay better at CB2 than many, many other options out there.
 
C. Davis is a very good CB2…top 5ish. He’s an average CB1…probably top 15-20.

We’re not playing more man because we don’t have a top coverage LB and / or S. A better CB2 really doesn’t do much unless he can play LB.
 
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